1. ENERGIEONDERZOEK CENTRUM NEDERLAND Integrating top-down and bottom-up in ESD-evaluation P. Boonekamp ECN, Netherlands ECEEE/EU-workshop March 3, 2005, Brussels

2. ENERGIEONDERZOEK CENTRUM NEDERLAND Problems top-down approach Appropriate aggregation level/variables to construct the reference trend and calculate energy savings Not always focused on specific policy issues (e.g. cogeneration) No results on contribution of policy measures High uncertainty margins in total saving figures

3. ENERGIEONDERZOEK CENTRUM NEDERLAND Problems Bottom-up approach Interaction between saving options and program program or EU-policy Effect earlier policy / lagged effects Effect horizontal policy measures and exogenous factors (prices, etc.) Technical saving data / life time savings / behaviour savings / complicated cases Confidential data Substitution, primary effects, rebound

4. ENERGIEONDERZOEK CENTRUM NEDERLAND Integrated approach (1) Simulation of past energy trends per sector Existing bottom-up scenario model with: –all energy systems and saving options –vintage approach for systems/options –all volume and structural factors –energy prices and costs of options –all policy measures (horizontal, specific) Adaptations for historic evaluation: –historic inputs (all levels of aggregation) –fitting output to actual trends (all levels) –on/off switch for factors/policy measures

5. ENERGIEONDERZOEK CENTRUM NEDERLAND Integrated approach (2) Results from bottom-up simulation: –‘Real’ total energy savings –Total policy contribution / autonomous savings –Contribution specific measures ESD –Overlap with effect horizontal measures, prices and other factors –Corrected(*) ex-ante targets, to be compared with realization Example: Households in the Netherlands (1990-2000, based on statistical information and bottom-up monitoring) (*) for other exogenous factors than in formulating targets