1. 1 Final CLUE conference Scenarios for participation Karel Mulder k.f.mulder@tudelft.nl

2. 2 Cities moving towards Climate Neutrality, the need for transitions Challenge enormous: Rising consumption and depleting resources: Factor X Urban growth, 2050: 4 out of 5 Europeans live in the city Opportunity: expansion creates options for breakthrough innovation

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4. 4 Urban transitions A city is not just stone, concrete and steel If there was no vivid life in the city, why should it exist? Encompassing change, of technology, structure and culture

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6. 6 So how to change city life and city systems? Co evolution of city systems and city life Participation: people have to play a role But….. How can their role be effective in decisions? They do not have the required expertise?

7. Participation in change, How? The issue of expertise……. -> discuss an unfolding future Groups that normally do not meet should be ‘bridged’ Not too much focus on decision making Prioritize the ‘informal’ 7

8. Scenario workshops for participation Stakeholder participation through scenario workshops Emphasize trust and dialogue, not negotiation and blaming 8

9. 9 Scenario workshops for participation Preparation as part of the process External trends and risks Internal dialogue: “what city do we want?”

10. External uncertainties High Energy pressures Low energy pressures High population pressures Low population pressures 1 23 4

11. Internal scenarios Renewables Geothermal Clueburgh Efficiency Passive Clueburgh High density Compact Clueburgh Low density Green Clueburgh

12. Scenario 1: Clueburgh geothermal 1.Clueburgh goal of being carbon neutral in 2050 2.Six parties joined consortium (Clueburgh, energy companies, housings corporation) 3.Investment 14 million euro 4.Due to housing crisis 3000 houses instead of 6000 houses 5.Great losses for housing corporations, which became collectivized again 6.Unconventional fossil fuel leads to decrease of energy prices 7.Passive housing becomes the standard, geothermal energy not used any longer

13. Scenario 2:Passive Clueburgh 1.Tasman Quarter: Passive houses, Stelladam is project developer 2.Sloppy construction, due to lack of standards 3.Residents suffer from different nuisances and take Stelladam to court 4.Not much interest in further initiatives by project developers 5.Renegotation of European Directive, it becomes less stringent 6.Passive houses are still a promise, not the dominant approach to building

14. Scenario 3: Compact Clueburgh 1.The Purgedistrict is crowded, polluted, and poor 2.Integral plan to restructure the district: central square with cultural facilities; renovation of houses; traffic circulation plan 3.Opposition to new theater 4.Crisis in building sector, city council demands theater to be build by local unemployed constructors, causing fraudelent practices 5.Reconstruction was meant to stimulate socio- economic integration 6.In the end, Purgedistrict still very much segregated 7.High consumption of energy 8.Tensions over parking space 9.Smart & green cars might make car use attractive again for urban professionals

15. Scenario 4: Green Clueburgh 1.Sandytown built in dune area. Goals: carbon neutral, protection of nature, minimal visual impact, affordable 2.Partnership with environmental NGOs 3.Parking spaces far from houses led to sense of lack of safety, people started to park their cars close to their houses 4.Wind energy was forbidden by supreme court, green energy hase become provided by controversial import of green certificates 5.Prices of houses have become very high, due to attractive living environment

16. 16 Meaningful dialogue on complex issues that require high levels of expertise can prevent conflict and accelerate change

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