1. Medicine Hat / Alberta Economic & Housing Market Review & Forecast Richard Goatcher Economic Analyst CHBA – Alberta February 2016

2. total net migration - quarterly Alberta Net Migration Source: Statistics Canada

3. Quarterly year-over-year net change Alberta Total Net Migration Source: Statistics Canada

4. Alberta - Total Net Migration Source: Statistics Canada, Forecast: CHBA-AB net migration - annual

5. Population Estimate Lethbridge - Medicine Hat Economic Region number of persons (,000s) Source: Statistics Canada

6. number of persons Lethbridge - Medicine Hat Region Components of Population Growth Source: Statistics Canada

7. Labour Force vs. Employment Alberta (thousands – seasonally unadjusted) Source: Statistics Canada (# of persons employed)

8. number of persons employed (,000s) Lethbridge - Medicine Hat Region Source: Statistics Canada

9. Annual Average Employment Lethbridge - Medicine Hat Region number of persons employed (,000s) Source: Statistics Canada

10. Unemployment Rate % Source: Statistics Canada

11. number of persons (SA) Source: Statistics Canada (receiving regular benefits) Employment Insurance Recipients Alberta

12. Source: CIBC / Angus Reid Percentage of Canadians who feel positive about their current financial situation

13. Avg. Weekly Earnings Alberta (Seasonally adjusted) Source: Statistics Canada

14. Alberta Inflation Rate CPI – y/yr % chg Source: Statistics Canada

15. Source: Statistics Canada (Bank of Canada) Five-year Mortgage Rate Monthly average per cent (conventional/posted)

16. Source: CMHC Minimum Down Payment by Purchase Price Rules Change for Insured Mortgages

17. Source: Statistics Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales Alberta units – 3 month moving avg. (unadjusted)

18. Source: Statistics Canada Energy and Petroleum Products Price Index 2010 = 100

19. International Exports from Alta ($ Millions) Source: Statistics Canada

20. Farm Product Prices Alta Livestock Source: Statistics Canada $/100 wt

21. Farm Product Prices Alberta Source: Statistics Canada $/metric tonne

22. 6 month moving average (x $1,000) Source: Statistics Canada Value of New Residential Investment Alberta - Current Prices

23. X $1,000 Alberta Renovation (residential investment ) Source: Statistics Canada (trend = 4 qtr. Moving avg.)

24. Building Permit Values ($000) Alberta Source: Statistics Canada

25. units (,000s) Alberta Housing Starts Urban Centres Source: CMHC

26. Total Housing Starts Alberta – All Areas units (annual) Source: CMHC, Forecast: CHBA-AB

27. Alberta Housing Starts units Source: CMHC, Forecast: CHBA-AB

28. Total Housing Starts Medicine Hat CA units Source: CMHC

29. Single-detached Housing Starts Medicine Hat CA units (annual) Source: CMHC

30. completed and unabsorbed single & semi-detached units Medicine Hat - Low-Density Inventory Source: CMHC (inc. show homes)

31. 6 month moving average Source: CMHC Avg. Single-detached Absorbed Price Medicine Hat CA

32. share of market Single-detached Absorptions Medicine Hat CA - ($,000) Source: CMHC

33. Multi-family Housing Starts Medicine Hat CA units (annual) Source: CMHC

34. Multi-family Housing Starts Medicine Hat CA units (annual) Source: CMHC

35. completed and unabsorbed row + apartment units Medicine Hat – Multi-family Inventory Source: CMHC

36. units (SAAR – 3 month mvg. avg.) Residential MLS ® Sales Alberta Source: CREA

37. units Source: AREA Residential MLS ® Sales Medicine Hat

38. Residential MLS ® Active Listings Medicine Hat Region units Source: MHREB

39. MLS ® Sales-to-Active Listings Ratio Medicine Hat Region per cent (6-month moving avg.) Source: MHREB

40. 6 month moving average Source: CREA/AREA Residential MLS ® Average Sale Price Medicine Hat

41. annual & year-to-date Source: CREA Residential MLS ® Average Sale Price Medicine Hat

42. Apartment Vacancy Rates Source: CMHC per cent (October surveys)

43. Average Apartment Rent Two-Bedroom Unit, October Surveys Source: CMHC $/month

44. Source: CMHC (units common to both surveys) per cent change (October surveys) Annual Rent Increase Two-bedroom apartment

45. Upside Mortgage rates to remain “affordable.” New & existing home inventories appear manageable. New MF inventory looks tight. Activist gov’ts in Edmonton & Ottawa will spend on infrastructure. Inflation remains “benign”(for now). Agriculture sector holding up. Low C$ helping exports to US. Offshore investors see bargains & safe havens in Canadian RE. Downside Reduced migration from the ROC. Spending cuts in the energy sector will hamper job creation. Weaker income growth. Bigger down payments needed on homes priced over $500,000. Tighter credit conditions as lenders become more cautious in Alta. Rental markets have softened. Uncertainly over carbon taxes (activist gov’ts). Consumer confidence eroded. Falling C$ causing price pressures. For Discussion Medicine Hat Outlook for 2016

46. Medicine Hat Housing Review Richard Goatcher Economic Analyst CHBA – Alberta richard.goatcher@chbaalberta.ca