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Gold Focus 2016 – DPMC Philip Newman, Dubai 12 th April 2016
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Independent Highly experienced Far reaching travel programme 1,000 cross-asset, mines & project database About Metals Focus
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“Further upside likely for the gold price in 2016.” “..the change in investor sentiment seen in the first quarter is more likely to solidify than melt away..” “..this impressive recovery will mark the end of the bear cycle that started in 2011.” Our Gold Focus press release
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2015: ongoing dollar price weakness Source: Bloomberg
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US Fed rate expectations: 5 th January 2015 Source: Bloomberg
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Other headwinds: US$ strength & focus on equities Source: Bloomberg
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Net institutional selling continued in 2015 Source: Bloomberg
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Mine production: 2010-2015, +446t, avg 3% p.a. Source: Metals Focus, Bloomberg
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Mine costs: windfall from weaker producer currencies The blue line represents a rebased gold price, that has been adjusted for local currency movements from the world’s largest 20 gold producing countries. Local currencies have been indexed from January 2010, and weighted by the countries’ 2015 gold production. Source: Bloomberg, Metals Focus
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Mine costs continued to fall * Total Cash Cost plus Depreciation equals Total Production Cost Source: Metals Focus Gold Mine Cost Service 2012-15: AISC: -$154 Gold price: -$510
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Recycling: weakened again in 2015 Source: Metals Focus
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Chinese and Indian gold demand Source: Metals Focus
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Mainland China official bullion imports Source: Various, Metals Focus
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Chinese jewellery and retail investment demand Source: Metals Focus
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Chinese jewellery and retail investment demand Source: Metals Focus
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India official bullion imports Source: Indian Ministry of Commerce
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Indian jewellery and retail investment demand Source: Metals Focus
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Key areas of gold demand Source: Metals Focus
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Jewellery consumption, 2014 vs 2015 *North America & Europe excluding the CIS Source: Metals Focus
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Physical investment, 2014 vs 2015 Source: Metals Focus
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Central bank purchases driven by Russia & China Source: Metals Focus
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Market balance remained neutral in 2015 Source: Metals Focus, Bloomberg
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Global supply forecast Source: Metals Focus
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Global demand forecast Source: Metals Focus. Jewellery basis fabrication series.
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Gold market remains balanced in 2016 Source: Metals Focus
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Expectations of US Fed rate increase Source: Bloomberg
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Turnaround in institutional investor activity in 2016 Source: Bloomberg
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Gold 25-Delta Risks Reversal* *The difference in implied volatility between 25-delta call and put options. This illustrates whether investor interest in the option market is skewed to the call side (if positive) or put side (if negative), as well as the extent of the skew. Source: Bloomberg
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Quarterly gold price forecast Source: Metals Focus, Bloomberg
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Quarterly gold price forecast Source: Metals Focus, Bloomberg
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Strong physical investment Source: Bloomberg, US Mint
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Indian silver market Source: Bloomberg, US Mint
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Quarterly gold:silver ratio forecast Source: Metals Focus, Bloomberg
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Quarterly silver price forecast Source: Metals Focus, Bloomberg
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Disclaimer & Copyright Although every effort has been made to undertake this work with care and diligence, Metals Focus Ltd cannot guarantee the accuracy of any forecasts or assumptions. Nothing contained in this presentation constitutes an offer to buy or sell securities or commodities and nor does it constitute advice in relation to the buying or selling of investments. It is published only for informational purposes. Metals Focus Ltd does not accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this presentation. Tel: +44 20 3301 6510 Email: info@metalsfocus.com Bloomberg chat: IB MFOCUS www.metalsfocus.com For information about our products and services please contact:
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