1. 1 EMERGENCE OF REGIONAL JETS AND THE IMPLICATIONS ON AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT MIT International Center for Air Transportation Aleksandra Mozdzanowska, R. John Hansman, Jonathan Histon, Daniel Delahaye alexm@mit.edu

2. 2 Example Regional Jets CRJ 200 (50 seats) ERJ 145 (50 seats)

3. 3 U.S. Regional Jet Growth Source: FAA registration data from 1995 until the present

4. 4 U.S. Regional Jet Network Growth 1998 2002 2000 2002 Density

5. 5 U.S. Regional Jet Utilization Route changes 1992 and 2001 Route changes 2002 Source: Regional Air Service Initiative  The initial utilization of regional jets focused on creating new routes and replacing turboprop routes  In 2002 both new regional jet routes and turboprop replacement routes still account for the majority of changes

6. 6 U.S. Regional Jet Carriers and Code Share Partners Aircraft TypeRegional CarrierCode Share Partners/Carriers E135American Eagle Continental Express Republic American Continental America West, Delta, US Airways E145American Eagle Continental Express Mesa Republic Trans State American Continental America West, Frontier, US Airways America West, Delta, USAirways America, US Airways CRJ1Comair Sky West Delta Delta, United CRJ2Air Wisconsin Atlantic Southeast Mesa Sky West Air Tran, United Delta America West, Frontier, US Airways Delta, United CRJ7American Eagle Atlantic Southeast Comair Horizon Mesa American Delta Alaska, Northwest America West, Frontier, US Airways BA46Air Wisconsin Mesaba Air Tran, United Northwest

7. 7 Influences on Regional Jet Growth  Market Influences  Preference of regional jets to turboprops  Ability to match aircraft size to small demand but high value markets  Code sharing between mainline and regional carriers  These code shares support the regional flights by paying a per departure fee to the regional carriers  Scope clauses  Scope clauses are part of the labor agreements between airlines and pilots and limit the number and utilization of regional jets  Major airlines want to fly regional jets because of lower crew costs  Impact of 9/11?

8. 8 ATC Concerns  Impact on congestion and delays at the airport and terminal areas  Regional jets are replacing turboprops which can use different runways and departure routes than traditional jets  Traditional jet replacement will increase the number of operations per person  Regional jets are rumored to exhibit a slower climb rate than traditional jets  Impact on performance during cruise  Regional and traditional narrow body jets cruise at similar altitudes  Performance differences may reduce through-put in constrained areas

9. 9 Study Objective  Analyze the possible implications of the growth in regional jet operations on the national airspace system (NAS)  Investigate the national flight patterns of regional jets compared to other aircraft types  Investigate the operational performance characteristics of regional jets, traditional jets, and turboprops  Identify possible areas where consequences of growth in regional jet operations may emerge

10. 10 Methodology  U.S. track data  Aircraft Situational Display to Industry (ASDI) feed was used  Data compiled by the Volpe Center from the FAA’s Enhanced Traffic Management System (ETMS)  This study shows flights departing between midnight GMT December 19 th and 20 th 2002  European track data  European flight tracks simulated based on filed flight plan  24 hours of flights between December 19 th and 20 th 2002  Aircraft classification  Wide Body Traditional Jets  Narrow Body Traditional Jets  Regional Jets: CRJ 100, 200, 700; ERJ 135, 145; BA46  Turboprops

11. 11 Regional Jet Flight Patterns in the U.S.

12. 12 Density Map: 24 hours of US flights

13. 13 Wide Body Traditional Jets  Majority of flights are transcontinental or international

14. 14 Narrow Body Traditional Jets  Significant number of operations across all of the U.S  Operations focused at hubs, and most dense in the north-east  Significant number of transcontinental flights

15. 15 Turboprops  Operations are most dense in the north-east  Most flights focused at hubs  No transcontinental flights, and few flights between major cites (operations used to feed the hubs)

16. 16 Regional Jets  Operation pattern is a combination of narrow body jet and turboprop patterns  Operations are most dense in the north-east  Operations focused at the hubs forming networks, but also providing point to point service  Significant flight distances, but few transcontinental flights

17. 17 Stage Length Differences  Regional Jets appear to be filling a distance gap between the turboprops and narrow body jets  Particularly on flights between 400 and 700 miles  Most likely serving markets with not enough demand to support a narrow body jet, and too far away to be effectively served with a turboprop

18. 18 DFW Departures  The regional jets increase the catchment basin around DFW, by filling in a distance gap not covered by the turboprops and narrow body traditional jets

19. 19 Comparison of Operations in Europe and the U.S.

20. 20 U.S. Flight Patterns Wide body jets Narrow body jets Regional jets Turboprops

21. 21 European Flight Patterns Wide body jets Narrow body jets Regional jets Turboprops

22. 22 Fleet Mix Comparison Europe: Total Flights 18,954 USA: Total Flights 35,300

23. 23 Implications of Regional Jet Operations

24. 24 ATC Concerns  Impact on congestion and delays at the airport and terminal areas  Regional jets are replacing turboprops which can use different runways and departure routes than traditional jets  Traditional jet replacement will increase the number of operations per person  Regional jets are rumored to exhibit a slower climb rate than traditional jets  Impact on performance during cruise  Regional and traditional narrow body jets cruise at similar altitudes  Performance differences may reduce through-put in constrained areas

25. 25 Atlanta Airport Surface Diagram

26. 26 Newark Airport Surface Diagram 6800 feet

27. 27 Dallas Fort Worth Airport Surface Diagram 8500 feet

28. 28 Segregation of Turboprop and Jet Departure Tracks  Regional and traditional jet tracks are integrated  Turboprop tracks are segregated DFW departures between 0000 and 0500 GMT DFW N Turboprops Regional jets Traditional jets

29. 29 Differences in Climb Performance  E135 exhibits a slower climb rate  Minimal difference between the climb rates of the E145, CRJ2, and the traditional jets

30. 30 Impact of Climb Performance on Sector Structure  Current sector structure aims to minimize hand-offs and as a result controller workload  Slower climb may result in missed sector transitions

31. 31 ATC Concerns  Impact on congestion and delays at the airport and terminal areas  Regional jets are replacing turboprops which can use different runways and departure routes than traditional jets  Traditional jet replacement will increase the number of operations per person  Regional jets are rumored to exhibit a slower climb rate than traditional jets  Impact on performance during cruise  Regional and traditional narrow body jets cruise at similar altitudes  Performance differences may reduce through-put in constrained areas

32. 32 Average Cruise Speed  The regional and narrow body jets both have a significant number of flights that cruise at speeds between 300 and 500 knots, but on average the regional jets speeds are slightly lower

33. 33 Average Cruise Altitude  Regional and traditional narrow body jets have similar design altitudes; however, the two aircraft types, on average, fly at different altitudes  This difference is most likely due to strategic uses of regional jets, and the stage length differences between regional and traditional narrow body jets

34. 34 Correlation between Stage Length and Cruise Altitude  Stage length may be the reason that regional jets cruise lower than narrow body jets

35. 35 Summary of Implications of Regional Jet Operations  Many of the main concerns about congestions and ATC issues do not seem to be as significant as expected  Most runways at major airports can be used by all aircraft types, so turboprop replacement should cause limited congestions issues  Turboprop replacement may cause congestion as a result of departure and arrival procedures  Slower climb rates may have an effect on congestions, but the issues are mostly limited to the E135  Performance differences between regional jets and other aircraft are minimal and also mitigated by altitude segregation

36. 36 Uncertainty of Future U.S. Regional Jet Growth Source: FAA registration data from 1995 until the present

37. 37 Future Regional Jets CRJ 900 (86 seats) ERJ 190 (98 seats)

38. 38 Uncertainties facing Regional Jets  When economic conditions improve, demand will increase, leading to need for increased capacity  Will regional jets need to be replaced with larger aircraft? Where will displaced regional jets go? Probably to replace turboprops  What will be the successful airline business model?  Will it include regional jets? If so, what will be the labor contracts and code share agreements?  Bombardier and Embraer are building bigger aircraft what will be the impact ?  Will this lead to future competition with Boeing and Airbus?

39. 39 Questions