1. Meteorology 415 Fall 2012 Forecast Review Wednesday, October 31, 2012 Johnstown, PA (JST)

2. Johnstown, PA Population (2010) City 20,978 Urban 76,113 Metro 143,679

3.  KJST 312354Z AUTO 25011KT 9SM UP OVC005 01/00 A2956 RMK AO2 SNB36E43 CIG  003V009 SLP030 P0000 60015 T00110000 10011 20006 53013=  KJST 010008Z AUTO 25011KT 6SM -SN BR OVC003 01/01 A2956 RMK AO2 UPE2356SNB2356  CIG 002V008 P0001=  KJST 010054Z AUTO 24010G18KT 8SM -SN OVC003 01/01 A2957 RMK AO2  UPE46SNB2356E11B46 SLP031 P0001 T00110006=  KJST 010154Z AUTO 24011KT 8SM -SN OVC003 01/00 A2958 RMK AO2  UPB0057E35SNE0057B21E23B35 CIG 003V007 SLP035 P0001 T00060000=  KJST 010254Z AUTO 22010KT 5SM -SN BR OVC005 01/00 A2958 RMK AO2 CIG 003V008  SLP037 P0000 60002 T00060000 53007=  KJST 010354Z AUTO 26012G17KT 5SM -SN BR OVC005 01/00 A2958 RMK AO2 CIG 003V007  SLP037 P0002 T00060000=  KJST 010454Z AUTO 25011KT 8SM -SN OVC005 01/00 A2958 RMK AO2 CIG 003V010 SLP036  P0001 T00060000 400111006=  KJST 010554Z AUTO 24012KT 8SM -SN OVC005 01/00 A2958 RMK AO2 SLP035 P0001 60006  T00060000 10011 20006 55001=  KJST 010654Z AUTO 23010KT 8SM -SN OVC005 01/00 A2958 RMK AO2 SLP034 P0001  T00060000=  KJST 010754Z AUTO 24012KT 9SM -SN OVC005 01/00 A2958 RMK AO2 SLP034 P0001  T00060000=  KJST 010854Z AUTO 25011KT 8SM -SN OVC005 01/00 A2958 RMK AO2 SLP034 P0000 60002  T00060000 56001= Johnstown Observations

4. Johnstown Surface Map

5. Johnstown Satellite Imagery

6. Johnstown IR Imagery

7. Johnstown Radar

8. Johnstown Upper Air Analysis

9. Johnstown Model

10. Johnstown Verifications

11. Johnstown – Survey Scores

12. Johnstown – Career Scores

13. Up Close and Personal

14. COMPARE for JST

15.  Without a defined lifting mechanism and in an oblique upslope flow, precip will be light and visibility will not be that low.  Temperatures go nowhere without advection and especially under a low overcast with a steady wind  Short term forecasts in a steady state pattern is where MOS does quite well. Lessons Learned- Johnstown