1. Droughts, dry spells and Nutrition Wednesday, 7 October 2015 Todd Middlebrook And other contributors: Neil Moss, SBScibus Paul Groves, Groves Consulting Hugh Archibald, Feedworks

2. Purpose of presentation Revisit the management and nutritional skills that need to be prioritised and re-honed to prepare for an onset of drought or dry conditions Focusing on these 3 areas. Planning, Buying and Feeding Source: Dairy Australia: Buying Feed, Information Pack

3. 3-step buying process: plan well, buy right, feed carefully PlanningBuyingFeeding Strategy* Cows kept Feed budget updated Based on real assumptions, error-free and allows for feed wastage Max $ value/ unit energy and protein Quality Information sources to help Feed shrink and spoilage Properly formulated and mixed diets delivered Healthy rumen function Productivity/Max Feed conversion/Profitablity Stay in target feed priceMinimising waste Target feed price to achieve profit Secure supply using Proactive contracts

5. Source: Bureau of Meteorology

6. Qld DPI charts which track rainfall when the SOI behaves in certain ways Don’t predict what the SOI will be but show historical patterns when the SOI has fallen into certain ranges or behaviour patterns based on past 120 years https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/season alclimateoutlook/rainfallprobability/index.phphttps://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/season alclimateoutlook/rainfallprobability/index.php Planning 1 st step–Drought outlook

7. Planning 1 st step–Drought strategy options Continue farming Partial de-stocking Temporary de-stocking Permanent de-stock – *At this stage widespread destock is not immediate priority

8. The cows chosen to stay and be fed What you choose to feed them Pasture quality and quantity Planning 1 st step- What can be influenced

9. Healthy cows. Assess milk production v’s feed cost SCC-opportunity to let go of “travellers”- maximum margin for every litre! Consider non-milk production factors (pregnancy rates, heifer growth, body condition) Planning 1 st step- Cows Kept

10. Calculating break-even costs for feeding Example – Feed costs7kgs pellet=7x0.40=$2.80 7kgs hay=7x0.30=$2.10 3kgs pasture=3x0.10=$0.30 total feed cost =$5.20 – Milk Price=50c/L Milk required to break even (feed only (no herd+shed costs) = 5.20/0.50= 10.4 L Planning 1 st step- Cows Kept

11. Healthy cows Healthy Cows Focus Cows must be healthy to optimise feed use efficiency Must continue to minimise milk fever => continue springer nutrition Must minimise early BCS loss Planning 1 st step- Cows Kept

12. Critical to feed for production not just maintenance Rations must be balanced as much as practical More grain is not the only answer but likely to be the most PRACTICAL and EFFECTIVE Inevitably additional grain and its ease of storage, handling and lack of waste means it will usually be assessed at INCREASED levels. Ian’s talk Planning 1 st step- Cows Kept

13. Body condition response Body condition in the fresh period is invaluable. Can’t feed enough to meet energy req’s of milk output. If going to keep them, respect them 1 BCS = 1 kg BW per day for 42 days 1 kg = 28 MJ = enough for 5.4 L of milk But, Work on 1:200 rule where every extra litre at peak delivers 200 L over the whole lactation 1000 L per 1 BCS (at least $500 per cow this year) Cost of 1 BCS = 210 kg pellets @ $400/T = $85 Spend is $85 to get $500 back Planning 1 st step- Cows Kept-Body Condition

14. MOTIVATION FOR PLANNING AND BUDGETING Planning – Feed Budget

15. Real kicker is the unplanned forage purchase Late purchase => +$50 premium Multiplied over large volume of a feed not normally buying Last year is not what’s happening this year Planning – Feed Budget

16. Budgeting, as important as ever ✓ Develop a month-by-month feed budget for the full year. ✓ Make realistic allowances for feed wastage based on your feeding system. ✓ Revise your feed budget when circumstances change. StepCalculate 1:Monthly feed demand 2:Total feed deficit 3:Quantities of each bought in feed

17. Planning – Feed Budget-Demand No. mouths to feed Level of production

18. Planning – Feed Budget-Demand Daily energy requirements Metabolisable energy (MJ)

19. Planning – Feed Budget-Demand

20. Tonnes of Dry Matter required for all stock each month Corrected to 11MJ/kg basis No. animals x ME requirement x No. days in month 11MJ 1000kg

21. Planning – Feed Budget-Supply & Calculated Deficit Animal's DM requirements less the amount of home- grown DM available from: – Pasture – Standing crops – Silage – Hay

22. Planning – Feed Budget- Filling Deficit Bought in Feed Tonnes of each bought in feed Formulate diets for each class of stock* – Milkers, *only example below across the year

23. Planning – Feed Budget- Filling Deficit -Whole Farm Now have plan of Tonnes of each bought in feed Interplay here between above formulation step and final requirements: Grain vs Forage vs Co products Allow for wastage*

24. http://dairypastureconsumptioncalculator.com.au/home/index Planning – Feed Budget- Bought in Feed

25. Break-even feed costs. Worst case scenario – Costs you can afford to pay for your bought-n feeds – Costs can’t go over to control feed costs and avoid negative net cash flow Target feed cost. Better case scenario – Positive annual net cash flow Planning – Feed Budget - What can you afford to pay

26. Process illustrated only. Changes for each farm depending on overheads, level of production

27. DairyBase The features. The benefits.

28. Total bought-in feed this season… Is Function of home grown feed in a tough year… Is in turn a function of management of pasture growth, grazing and conserved fodder. Planning – Feed Budget- Things can control

29. Ryegrass RYEGRASS After grazing- sugar reserves in the roots and stubble grow the new leaf If grazed too hard (no remnant leaf left) then it will take 4 days for the new leaf to grow – This will lead to a feed shortage next round and potential vicious downward spiral of less feed each round. When the plant has two leaves growing the sugar reserves are restored (theoretically it can be grazed again) But wait for 3 rd leaf Planning – Feed Budget- Home Grown Feed

30. S growth pasture curve

31. Leaf appearance rates Governed by temperature and (a lack of) soil moisture. It is not influenced by supply of nutrient

32. Leaf size Leaf size is influenced mainly by nutrient supply (esp Nitrogen) But also; Moisture, light and temp Type of ryegrass The leaf number- the 3 rd leaf is the largest

33. Leaf count vs leaf size vs DM Leaf count not always good predictor of amount, especially during moisture stress Cows eat kg DM not leaf amounts Need to keep in mind during dry

34. Base grazing rotation on leaf regrowth stage This reflects plant energy status, and affects regrowth, survival and quality grazing rotation: Always graze between 2 nd and 3 rd leaf regrowth stage Closer to 3 leaves when growth rate low and closer to 2 leaves when growth rate high Graze prior to Canopy Closure Grazing Management -Rotation Source: Richard Rawnsley, TIA

35. Grazing Management -Rotation 1-leaf (250 kg DM/ha) 2-leaf (500 kg DM/ha) 3-leaf (750 kg DM/ha)

36. 162 plots – Defoliated at 1, 2 or 3 leaf – Defoliated to height of 3.0cm, 5.5cm or 8.0cm – Nitrogen applied at 0, 1.5 or 3 kg N/ha.day – Rain-fed and irrigated Interactions between grazing interval, grazing intensity, Nitrogen and soil moisture Recent Research Source: Richard Rawnsley, TIA

37. Recent Research DO NOT GO EARLY AND BULLDOZE THE GROWING BASE, KEEP 3 rd LEAF GRAZING ON MOISTURE-LIMITED

38. Buy - Value

39. Buy – Diet planning Priority is for maximum Margin Over Feed or productivity PLUS maintain healthy and reproductive cow Suggested priority nutrients – NDF - Neutral Detergent Fibre* – Energy* – Starch – Protein

40. Buy – Value-First level assessment

41. Buy – Value- Must have numbers Fodder nutritional values vary widely A description on name only can be applied to a wide spectrum of fodders. – Shed stored, mixed, contaminated, mouldy, late stage, weather-damage Lab analysis before buying Get familiar with key nutrients for range of feed and forage types Buy on required nutrients

42. Buy – Diet planning - NDF Need minimum 32% NDF of Total Diet Preferred Target Forage NDF intake (kg) = 0.9 – 1% of BWT Maintains Rumen function, motility, turnover and subsequent pH Below minimum targets increases risk of sub- clinical acidosis (SARA)

43. Buy – Diet planning - NDF Could adhere to either total NDF or Forage NDF, depending on seasonal needs Forage NDF intake (kg) = 0.9 – 1% of BWT 550kg cow = 5kg of forage NDF = 11kgDM of 50% NDF Forage. => Easy in a good year. Total NDF intake (kg) = 32% total intake. More Practical for a drought year. 550kg cow = 6.6kg of NDF intake split between long fodder 5-6kg + NFFS 4-6kg (millrun, almond hulls)+ concentrate

44. Buy – Diet planning – Productivity Feeding mindset Cash flow challenges arise from expenditure and income. Can’t ignore income and just focus expense. Income comes from milk=> Feed intake drives milk=> Quality drives feed intake Need focus on quality for both home grown feed and purchased feed. Priority NDF and energy for MOFC. NDF (Controls Intake, more feed drives milk) and Energy (Fuel for milk) Intake x Energy = Total daily energy intake

45. Buy – Diet planning – Productivity Feeding mindset Priority #1 Energy Energy content declines with plant maturing and and structural parts of plant = less ME Older plants convert ME to structural parts (lignin) FeedEnergy (MJ/kg) Straw5-6 Lucerne9.5-10.5 Cereal Hay8-11

46. Buy – Diet planning – Productivity Feeding mindset Priority # 2 NDF NDF% measures total fibre content NDF % predicts GUTFILL Less NDF means they fit more in. More NDF means less fit in. More intake = more ME NDF increases with plant maturity and structural parts FeedNDF % Straw65-75 Lucerne35-50 Cereal Hay 45-60

47. Buy – Diet planning - NDF

49. Buy – Diet planning – Productivity Feeding mindset 120/NDF% = Intake as % of body weight HayNDF % MEProtein$/T Good451113270 OK509.511230 Poor658.28190 More Less Mature Scenario: 200 cows 8kg grain ad lib hay, nil grass. Hay is the forage source. Has been offered 3 hays at different prices need to choose

50. Buy – Diet planning – Productivity Feeding mindset Energy intake and use HayGoodOKPoor Grain kg888 Hay intake ad lib1210.58 Total kg2018.516 Energy Intake232200166 Maintenance +walking 70 Milk L/day30.824.718

51. Buy – Diet planning – Productivity Feeding mindset Input Costs and returns HayGoodOKPoor Grain $/day4.00 Hay $/day3.242.421.52 Total Feed $/day 7.246.425.52 Milk Income $/d13.8511.108.20 Margin6.604.682.68 Cost to make 1L24c26c30c

52. Buy – Diet planning – Productivity Feeding mindset Business bottom line HayGoodOKPoor Margin Over Feed $/hd 6.604.682.68 Margin over 200 cows $ 1320937536 Overheads/d $500 Heifers200 NET MARGIN/d500117-284 Per 30 days extrapolation 15 K3.5 K-8.5 K

53. Buy – Proactive Risk Management There are options for both grain and fodder Pricing strategies to lock in price or price ranges rather than be exposed to spot price movements. Various tools and strategies. All comes at a cost premium but a planned feed cost allows feed cost targets to be met rather than risk being exceeded

54. Feed – Delivery and Waste

55. Minimise wastage on all forages, both home & purchased forages – Utilisation is return on capital KPI priority Occurs at storage (quality deterioration) and feed out (offered but not eaten) Can be up to 30% of hays and silages if fed on ground in paddocks 30% wastage increases feed costs by 42%! – i.e. $300/tonne becomes $449/tonne down her throat – Turnaround on investment in effective feeding systems can be very quick Note: In any tight year, priority is still milk making not large capex projects Feed – Delivery and Waste

56. Source: Dairy Australia

57. Waste needs to be factored into Planning phase and forecasting what feeds are to be purchased to fill the gap Costs used at that Planning stage to properly assess cost of feed options: grains vs forages vs co products Also assess time, hassle and existing available facilities to minimise waste Typically (Inevitably ?) additional grain and its ease of storage, handling and lack of waste means it will usually be assessed at higher than normal levels during drought – Ian’s Talk Feed – Delivery and Waste

58. Questions?