1. Risk Management  Risk is the product of –Probability that something will go wrong And –Severity of its consequences  How to reduce risk? –Reduce probability that something will go wrong –Reduce severity of consequences

2. Risk Management  Failure mode and effects analysis –FMEA involves reviewing as many components, assemblies, and subsystems as possible to identify failure modes, and their causes and effects. From Wiki

3. Technical Risk Management TRM  TRM 4-step Methodology –Risk Identification –Risk Assessment –Risk Mitigation –Risk Monitoring

4. Risk Scoring Matrix FrequentLikelyPossibleUnlikelyRare CatastrophicEEHHM SevereEHHML MarginalHMMLL NegligibleMLLLL

5. Risk Mitigation Plan  Reducing the probability of failure  More knowledge  Less Risk –More accurate assessment Research + Analysis Simulation Experimentation Published studies, statistical data –Design changes

6. Risk Mitigation Plan  Reducing consequences of events –More accurate assessment of consequences Research + Analysis Simulation Experimentation Published studies –Design Changes

7. Example  Assessment: Bolt failure for a fuel tank is initially a probable event and its consequences are catastrophic.  Mitigation Detailed analysis shows it is extremely unlikely. Further investigation shows consequences are not as severe as initially perceived. OR Select higher strength or larger bolts Add features to contain damage in case of failure

8. Example  Risk –Magnets stuck to the disk may fly off Probability: High Consequences: Severe injury or death –Risk Assessment: Extreme

9. Example –Mitigation (Reducing odds of the event) More accurate assessment of forces and probability of magnets flying off at 1000 rpm –Conclusions: Very unlikely Design Changes –Add screws or other retaining parts –Use epoxy –Add speed sensors and automatic cut off

10. Example –Mitigation (Reducing consequences) More accurate assessment of consequences –Remains catastrophic Reducing consequences of the event –Add an enclosure –Operate remotely