2. The LEHD Program and Employment Dynamics Estimates Ronald Prevost Director, LEHD Program US Bureau of the Census Ronald.C.Prevost@Census.Gov

3. March 28, 2001FSCPE/FSCPP 2001 Meeting2 Census Bureau Mission and Major Activities n n Business Administrative Data n n Person and Household Administrative Data n n Merging Business and Person Data

4. March 28, 2001FSCPE/FSCPP 2001 Meeting3 LEHD’s Mission n n LEHD provides technical expertise and executive leadership to evaluate, and improve the quality and understanding of data collected by the Census Bureau’s core demographic and economic censuses and surveys through longitudinal analysis.

5. March 28, 2001FSCPE/FSCPP 2001 Meeting4 The Longitudinal Employer- Household Dynamics Program Link Record Person-ID Employer-ID Data Business Register Employer-ID Census Entity-ID Data Economic Censuses and Surveys Census Entity- ID Data Demographic Surveys Household Record Household-ID Data Person Record Household-ID Person-ID Data

6. March 28, 2001FSCPE/FSCPP 2001 Meeting5 Key Linking Data n Social Security Number n Name and demographic characteristics n Federal and State Employer Identification Numbers n Address and locator information n Internal census and survey ID numbers n Removal of identifying information after linkage occurs

7. March 28, 2001FSCPE/FSCPP 2001 Meeting6 Why are Linked Data Important? n Economy as whole – Effect of firms on workers – Effect of workers on firms n More value added from current surveys – Welfare – Health care – Aging n Reduced cost of current surveys n More efficient current surveys

8. March 28, 2001FSCPE/FSCPP 2001 Meeting7 Current Projects n Employment Dynamics Estimates n Understanding the gap between CPS and BLS’s CES employment totals n Place of work coding for the ACS n SIPP Research n Business Register Research (Predecessor-Successor Relationships) n Research on Redefining the Firm

9. March 28, 2001FSCPE/FSCPP 2001 Meeting8 What is needed: More Labor Market Information n Who has the jobs? n Where is the job growth? n Who’s getting new jobs? n Who’s getting hired? n How much do people earn?

10. March 28, 2001FSCPE/FSCPP 2001 Meeting9 Employment Dynamics Estimates n MOUs signed or in process with pilot states: CA, FL, IL, MD, TX n Partnership with BLS n Potential expansion of pilot states n Use of UI Wage records and ES-202 data n Consistent with BLS products

11. March 28, 2001FSCPE/FSCPP 2001 Meeting10 Employment Dynamics Estimates n Combining the ES-202 and UI Wage data: – We know jobs, earnings, location, industry – We don’t know age, sex, race n Combine with Numident data to provide demographic characteristics n Disclosure-proofing techniques – Additive Noise – Iterative Proportional Fitting

12. March 28, 2001FSCPE/FSCPP 2001 Meeting11 Employment Dynamics Estimates - Product n Universe: Employer Firms n Frequency: Quarterly Estimates n Tables: County and Industry n Demographics: Sex and Age Groups – 14-1819-21 – 22-2425-34 – 35-4445-54 – 55-6465+

13. March 28, 2001FSCPE/FSCPP 2001 Meeting12 Employment Dynamics Estimates - Product n Full Quarter & Period Employment – Accessions – Separations – Job Creation and Destruction – New Hires and Recalls – Earnings

14. March 28, 2001FSCPE/FSCPP 2001 Meeting13 What else can be done? n Different age/sex categories n Race and ethnicity research n Subcounty WIB tallies n Industry analysis n County analysis n Cross-state migration n Additional demographic and business information

15. March 28, 2001FSCPE/FSCPP 2001 Meeting14 Research Opportunities n Ability to conduct a wide variety of research if that research meets Census Bureau objectives n Ability to use specialty files n LEHD has specialized staff for support n Census Research Data Centers n Cornell University Support Site

16. March 28, 2001FSCPE/FSCPP 2001 Meeting15 Research Opportunities n Project Review n Limited Access n No identifying information kept after analytical data set created n Statistical analysis only - primarily multivariate analysis

17. March 28, 2001FSCPE/FSCPP 2001 Meeting16 Managerial Controls on Research n Public solicitation and proposal review n Special Sworn Status n Secure research facilities n No identifying information kept after analytical data set created n No removal of confidential data n Disclosure review process