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Relating LEED AP Growth to Green Building in the US LEED AP Data through Feb 10, 2010 March 31, 2010 Analysis Joint work with USGBC.

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Presentation on theme: "Relating LEED AP Growth to Green Building in the US LEED AP Data through Feb 10, 2010 March 31, 2010 Analysis Joint work with USGBC."— Presentation transcript:

1 Relating LEED AP Growth to Green Building in the US LEED AP Data through Feb 10, 2010 March 31, 2010 Analysis Joint work with USGBC

2 Cumulative LEED AP’s By Year

3 Top Ten Practice Areas (as of 2/10/2010)

4 Composition of Top LEED AP Professions By Year

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6 Who is under represented relative to the size of the real estate industry? Appraisers – only 16 LEED APs in the country. Lenders – only 41 Thus the problem of appraising and financing LEED property.

7 Density of Total LEED APs By State Wash DC not viewable here.

8 LEED APs Per Capita

9 Wash DC Correlation of LEED AP’s Per Capita with # Leed Buildings LQ =.942

10 Where are the Green Buildings?

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14 LEED Buildings Location Quotient =((state pop/US pop)/(# state cert/total US cert)) #1 Wash DC #2 OR #4, 5, 6 & 7 are WA, CO, MA, ME #3 VT

15 Top Ten Greenest States/Dist Based on LEED LQ 1DC10.74401 2OR3.046486 3VT2.677839 4WA2.38976 5CO2.348295 6MA2.085985 7ME2.031732 8NH1.36629 9IL1.233565 10CA1.226033

16 Relative to All CRE Buildings Which States are the Least Green? Rank as % of Total Stock State# Buildings as of 2009 1OK9 2LA11 3WV6 4SD3 5MS11 6ND3 7AL22 8KY22 9IN39 10NE12

17 What are the Greenest States Per Capita Based on Office Stock? RankState or District Penetration Per Million People 1District of Columbia 2Colorado 3California 4Oregon 5Minnesota 6Massachusetts 7Hawaii 8Washington 9Texas 10Virginia Data: CoStar Analysis by Eugene Choi in “Green on Buildings” Forthcoming in the Journal of Sustainable Real Estate, 2011, see www.josre.orgwww.josre.org

18 Who are the Greenest Cities Based on Office Stock Penetration?* RankState or District Penetration Per Million People 1San Francisco (6.23%) 2Houston (5.89%) 3Washington DC (4.63%) 4Denver (4.32%) 5Duluth (4.32%) 6Minneapolis (3.88%) 7Seattle (3.71%) 8Honolulu (3.67%) 9Burlington, NC (3.57%) 10Chicago (3.46%) Data: CoStar Analysis by Eugene Choi in “Green on Buildings” Forthcoming in the Journal of Sustainable Real Estate, 2011, see www.josre.orgwww.josre.org

19 LEED AP’s Versus # Buildings as % of Stock

20 Explaining the Location of LEED Buildings LEED LQ is the Dependent Variable R Square = 0.957 Adjusted R Square = 0.887 Independent Variable Coefficientst Stat GDP Growth Rate 20083.1163417580.370815325 Pop Growth Rate 2000-2009-1.512616551-0.442021405 Ratio of Rents-0.09727318-0.362596865 LEED AP/s Per capita3447.50038315.00559094

21 Using LEED AP’s Per Capita Explains LEED Building Efforts (or vice versa) R Square 0.934 Adjusted R Square 0.931 Coefficientst Stat Intercept - 0.100974961 - 0.575927223 LEED AP/s Per Capita3414.2267515.9964954

22 Relative (Higher) Rents Alone Explain More Than Rent Differentials in Terms of Where Developers Build Green R Square 0.306 Adjusted R Square 0.267 Coefficientst Stat Intercept-1.389899881-1.200055695 Qtr 1 2009 $Rent Level for LEED Buildings0.1266561442.814493583

23 Summary on Regression Analysis It is impossible to know (on this work to date) if we have LEED AP’s in areas with demand for LEED Buildings or if there are areas spawning LEED AP’s that in turn drive more LEED development. Yet we see a very strong correlation between LEED AP’s and Buildings and little correlation with GDP growth, population growth or even rent differentials (LEED rents above non- LEED rents) We do see more LEED buildings in those markets with relatively higher rents in absolute dollars. We still need to investigate regulatory effects and other possible drivers of green real estate. We need to drill down on some cities as well.

24 Summary Incentives and regulation matter – Many states, i.e. CA, and cities with higher penetration of LEED buildings have mandated green buildings, i.e. San Francisco, Houston, Washington DC. (See Eugene Choi, 2011) Higher rents also matter. Cities where rents are relative high compared to the US average tend to observe higher penetration rates. It is not clear whether LEED AP’s drive more LEED building or if LEED building drives the presence of LEED AP’s but there exists an extremely high correlation between the presence of LEED buildings and LEED AP’s.

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