1. What does Working Futures 2012-2022 project for working practices? Duncan Brown ONS LMSUG Conference 24 March 2014

2. Working Futures 2012-2022 The fifth in a series of detailed projections of the UK labour market UKCES research, delivered by Cambridge Econometrics and Warwick Institute for Employment Research The most comprehensive picture of UK employment prospects breaks down by occupation, industry and geographic area General aims understand past trends future employment prospects

3. Working Futures 2012-2022 Detailed employment projections 75 industry sectors (SIC 2007) up to 369 occupations (SOC 2010) 9 qualification categories (QCF) Nations and English Regions, plus smaller geog. areas Almost a million time series, just on employment! Job openings = expansion demand + replacement demand Range of economic and labour market indicators

4. The (hopefully obvious) caveats There really is no crystal ball here Any projection is the result of a set of assumptions about the path of certain variables and responses to them Forecasting is a “process” rather than an end itself – and in that process we can learn quite a lot about our assumptions The value of the projection is to challenge thinking on what different assumptions mean for the future labour market

5. Headlines: industries 2012-2022 -10% -2% -18% -9% 11% 14% 15% 30% 9% Fastest declining sector Fastest growing sector

6. Headlines: occupations 2012-2022 High-skill jobs lead growth Big falls in traditional middle-skill Big gains in ‘high-touch’ services

7. Headlines: occupations 2012-2022 41% 11% 16% 2% -6% 73% 61% 55% 63% 36% Lots of admin jobs amid decline

8. Women leading growth in new job areas Middle squeezed between care and high-skill 1-3 Managers, professionals, technical 7-9 Sales, process, elementary 6 Care Male, % by occupation, 1992-2022Female, % by occupation, 1992-2022 4-5 Admin & skilled trades

9. Employment status by gender, 2012-2022 Shift of 1% male employment from FT to PT Self- employment projected to be stable from here

10. Flexible work: females, 2012-2022 PT working enabling growth in high-skill PT work shifting out of low-skill, into care

11. Flexible work: males, 2012-2022 PT working increasing role in low- skill work

12. Fastest-growing part-time roles -63k -86k -22k -65k -175k 99k 64k 43k 410k 84k

13. Fastest-growing self-employed roles -37k -13k -22k -11k -44k 6k 29k 17k 33k 2k

14. Ageing occupations Not only a problem for declining occupations

15. Replacement: sector and occupation Primary sector and utilities Manufacturing Construction Trade, accommod. and transport Business and other services Public admin., education & health 1. Managers, directors and senior officials39%37%41%43% 39% 2. Professional occupations36%33%38%42%40%42% 3. Associate professional and technical35%34%38%39%38%33% 4. Administrative and secretarial41%42%46%45%44%39% 5. Skilled trades occupations44%31%34%32%37%34% 6. Caring, leisure and other service42%47%51%49%45% 7. Sales and customer service33% 36% 35%33% 8. Process, plant and machine operatives36%30%35%40% 38% 9. Elementary occupations31%34%31%39%37%34%

16. Working Futures 2012-2022 Published reports Main Report Spatial Report (devolved countries and English regions) Other annexes (methodology, comparisons with previous results, detailed 4-digit SOC results and alternative scenarios) Supporting outputs Main workbooks (around 60 detailed sets of industry projections by spatial area) LEP and related workbooks Technical Report explaining sources and methods