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Elections and campaigns

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1 Elections and campaigns
Chapter 10

2 Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.
Learning Objectives 10.1 Describe the ideas that molded the Framers’ thinking about elections 10.2 Outline the steps in presidential campaigns 10.3 Identify the issues that shape presidential campaigns 10.4 Outline the steps in congressional campaigns 10.5 Determine which issues shape congressional campaigns Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

3 Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.
Elections Elections provide the most common (and easiest) way for people to express their opinions and to hold elected officials accountable. Electoral College: The presidential electors, selected every four years to represent the votes of their respective states, who meet to cast the electoral votes for president and vice president. popular vote: Tally of total votes from individual citizens, as opposed to the electoral vote. Key Questions Why did the Framers give so much authority over presidential elections to the states? Is the winner-take-all system fair? How did the emergence of political parties change the way the Framers hoped elections would work? What inequalities does state control of elections introduce? Should the Electoral College be eliminated? What would be the consequences? Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

4 The Constitutional Requirements for Elections
Presidential Elections The Electoral College formal selection of the president of the United States is in the hands of the electors in the Electoral College. Problems with the Electoral College Never worked as Framers envisioned as an institution that would allow a group of independent decision makers to get together in the many states and deliberate over who would make the best president. Electoral College: The presidential electors, selected every four years to represent the votes of their respective states, who meet to cast the electoral votes for president and vice president. popular vote: Tally of total votes from individual citizens, as opposed to the electoral vote. Key Questions Why did the Framers give so much authority over presidential elections to the states? Is the winner-take-all system fair? How did the emergence of political parties change the way the Framers hoped elections would work? What inequalities does state control of elections introduce? Should the Electoral College be eliminated? What would be the consequences? Key Question Why did the Framers set up gates against popular participation in elections?

5 The Constitutional Requirements for Elections
Presidential Elections Electoral College Reform Eliminating it would decrease the role of states Small states see merit in the system Electoral College: The presidential electors, selected every four years to represent the votes of their respective states, who meet to cast the electoral votes for president and vice president. popular vote: Tally of total votes from individual citizens, as opposed to the electoral vote. Key Questions Why did the Framers give so much authority over presidential elections to the states? Is the winner-take-all system fair? How did the emergence of political parties change the way the Framers hoped elections would work? What inequalities does state control of elections introduce? Should the Electoral College be eliminated? What would be the consequences?

6 The Constitutional Requirements for Elections
The U.S. Constitution requirements regarding elections indicate that the Framers wanted to set up barriers against direct democracy. According to the U.S. Constitution, only the House of Representatives was to be elected directly by the people. Electoral College: The presidential electors, selected every four years to represent the votes of their respective states, who meet to cast the electoral votes for president and vice president. popular vote: Tally of total votes from individual citizens, as opposed to the electoral vote. Key Questions Why did the Framers give so much authority over presidential elections to the states? Is the winner-take-all system fair? How did the emergence of political parties change the way the Framers hoped elections would work? What inequalities does state control of elections introduce? Should the Electoral College be eliminated? What would be the consequences? Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

7 The Constitutional Requirements for Elections
House of Representatives originally elected the members of the Electoral College The people of each state currently elect the members of the Electoral College Electoral College: The presidential electors, selected every four years to represent the votes of their respective states, who meet to cast the electoral votes for president and vice president. popular vote: Tally of total votes from individual citizens, as opposed to the electoral vote. Key Questions Why did the Framers give so much authority over presidential elections to the states? Is the winner-take-all system fair? How did the emergence of political parties change the way the Framers hoped elections would work? What inequalities does state control of elections introduce? Should the Electoral College be eliminated? What would be the consequences?

8 How the Electoral College Works
Figure 10.1 Each state’s number of electors for the 2012 election, allocated on the basis of the 2010 census. Note: In every state but two the winner of the popular vote takes all of the electoral votes. Maine and Nebraska allocate votes by congressional district and so can split their electoral votes. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

9 The Constitutional Requirements for Elections
Presidential Elections Historical Note Originally, the Electoral College did not account for political parties. This changed with the 12th Amendment which combined the vote for president and vice president into one ballot, with the person running for each office named. All except two states, Nebraska and Maine, use a winner-take-all system in Electoral College. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

10 The Constitutional Requirements for Elections
Presidential Elections The 2000 Presidential Election Albert Gore Jr. and George W. Bush Gore received more votes Florida too close to call on election night Demand for a recount Raised distrust of system (short-term) If no candidate achieves a majority of electoral votes, the House of Representatives decides the outcome of the election. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

11 The Constitutional Requirements for Elections
Presidential Elections Tally of the total votes from individual citizens, as opposed to the electoral vote, is known as the popular vote. In the 2000 election Gore won the popular vote Bush won the electoral vote and thus the election Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

12 The Constitutional Requirements for Elections
Congressional Elections Senate Elections Seventeenth Amendment One-third up for election at a time The staggering of senatorial elections helps to insulate senators from shifts in public sentiment The Seventeenth Amendment in 1913 took the choice of senators from the state legislatures and gave it to the people. Today, U.S. citizens directly elect senators, members of the House of Representatives, governors, and state legislators. redistricting: Process whereby state legislatures redraw the boundaries of congressional districts in the state to make them equal in population size. gerrymandering: Redistricting that blatantly benefits one political party over the other or concentrates (or dilutes) the voting impact of racial and ethnic groups. Key Questions How do differences in term lengths and constituencies affect how senators and House members behave? Do majority-minority districts help advance equality or introduce inequalities?

13 The Constitutional Requirements for Elections
Congressional Elections House Elections and Redistricting Entire House up for election every two years Always been elected by the people Representatives based on population The Constitution requires that members of the House of Representatives be apportioned, within each state, according to population, which is counted in a census Gerrymandering redistricting: Process whereby state legislatures redraw the boundaries of congressional districts in the state to make them equal in population size. gerrymandering: Redistricting that blatantly benefits one political party over the other or concentrates (or dilutes) the voting impact of racial and ethnic groups. Key Questions How do differences in term lengths and constituencies affect how senators and House members behave? Do majority-minority districts help advance equality or introduce inequalities? Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

14 The Constitutional Requirements for Elections
Congressional Elections House Elections and Redistricting Depending on patterns of population growth or decline, states win or lose congressional seats with each new census. State legislatures are responsible for drawing the district lines, in a process known as redistricting. When political parties redraw district lines in order to benefit one political party over another, it is called gerrymandering. redistricting: Process whereby state legislatures redraw the boundaries of congressional districts in the state to make them equal in population size. gerrymandering: Redistricting that blatantly benefits one political party over the other or concentrates (or dilutes) the voting impact of racial and ethnic groups. Key Questions How do differences in term lengths and constituencies affect how senators and House members behave? Do majority-minority districts help advance equality or introduce inequalities? Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

15 The Constitutional Requirements for Elections
The term gerrymander comes from the salamander-shaped district in Massachusetts (above left), which Governor Elbridge Gerry approved following the census of Political rivals denounced the blatant seeking of political advantage that had produced such an oddly shaped congressional district, and the taunt stuck, passing into common usage in politics. Nevertheless, gerrymandered districts remain. In 1991, a North Carolina redistricting was designed to create a district with African Americans in the majority (above right). Federal courts later ruled that North Carolina had to revise these district lines so that the congressional district was more compact. Sources: Bettmann/CORBIS and North Wind Picture Archives/Alamy Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

16 The Constitutional Requirements for Elections
Other Elections Only election in Constitution is for the House Many types of elections today Public sees elections as way to make political choice Key Question Do you think more elections mean more democracy? Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

17 The Presidential Campaign
Evolution of the Modern Campaign George Washington didn’t want to be seen as a monarch Allowed political parties to work on his behalf Early 20th century saw presidential candidates campaigning also Concern over the permanent campaign Worry that politicians, especially presidents, spend too much time working toward reelection and not enough time governing permanent campaign: Charge that presidents and members of Congress focus more on winning the next election than on governing. Key Questions Do presidential campaigns ensure that the best person for the office wins? Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

18 The Presidential Campaign
In 1896, William McKinley, former House member and governor of Ohio, ran for president from his front porch in Canton, Ohio. Visitors arrived by train, and he spoke to groups of them, sometimes several times a day. In contrast, his opponent, William Jennings Bryan, traveled all over the country by train, speaking to crowds from the back of train cars. McKinley won. Source: The Granger Collection, NYC Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

19 The Presidential Campaign
The Decision to Run and the Invisible Primary Period just before the primaries begin during which candidates attempt to capture party support and media coverage. Once a candidate decides to run for president, he or she enters what has been called the invisible primary. No votes are cast, but candidates are jockeying for position so they can be ready to do well in the initial primaries and caucuses. invisible primary: Period just before the primaries begin during which candidates attempt to capture party support and media coverage. Key Questions Were you satisfied with the option you were offered in 2012, a choice between Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? Why or why not?

20 The Presidential Campaign
The Decision to Run and the Invisible Primary If neither a sitting president nor vice president is seeking their party's nomination, the nomination is said to be open The Caucuses and Primaries 70% of states use primaries in some form 30% of states use caucuses Take place January to June invisible primary: Period just before the primaries begin during which candidates attempt to capture party support and media coverage. Key Questions Were you satisfied with the option you were offered in 2012, a choice between Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? Why or why not? Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

21 The Presidential Campaign
The Iowa caucus, the nation’s first and most famous caucus, requires that people attend a meeting of about two hours in which they indicate their preferences and then try to convince those who are undecided to join their candidate’s group. invisible primary: Period just before the primaries begin during which candidates attempt to capture party support and media coverage. Key Questions Were you satisfied with the option you were offered in 2012, a choice between Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? Why or why not? Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

22 The Road to the White House
Table 10.1 © Cengage Learning Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

23 The Presidential Campaign
The National Convention Prior to 1960s unclear who would be nominee Today chance for activists/party leaders to gather Party platform is formally adopted, laying out the plan for government Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

24 The Presidential Campaign
The Presidential Debates Managed by non-partisan, nonprofit Commission on Presidential Debates established in 1987 First debate between Kennedy and Nixon in 1960 Debates have more risk than reward Since the first televised presidential debate, candidates and campaign insiders have mostly viewed debates as more likely being negative for their candidate. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

25 The Presidential Campaign
Source: Joe Raedle/Staff/Getty Images News/Getty Images Key Questions Did you recall any of the 2012 presidential debates? If so, what do you remember? In October 2012, Republican nominee Mitt Romney debated President Barack Obama. After the first debate, the consensus was that Romney outperformed Obama. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

26 Issues in Presidential Campaigns
Fundraising and Money Federal Election Campaign Act (1971) Congress tried to put candidates on an equal financial footing and make them less beholden to special interests The requirements that are in place to receive public financing during presidential nomination campaigns discourage third-party candidates from running Super PACs: Independent groups that can raise unlimited amounts of money from individuals, labor unions, and corporations and can spend it to support or oppose political candidates but cannot coordinate directly with candidates or political parties. Key Questions What are the pros and cons of laws that regulate campaign finance? Are presidential campaigns too expensive? Are presidential campaigns fair? Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

27 Issues in Presidential Campaigns
Fundraising and Money Candidates look for loopholes Bundling PACs/Super PACs One of the consequences of the Supreme Court's ruling in Citizens United v. FEC was the rise of Super PACs, which can raise unlimited funds from such groups as: corporations, unions, and individuals. Concerns about influence of money on election process Internet fundraising Super PACs: Independent groups that can raise unlimited amounts of money from individuals, labor unions, and corporations and can spend it to support or oppose political candidates but cannot coordinate directly with candidates or political parties. Key Questions What are the pros and cons of laws that regulate campaign finance? Are presidential campaigns too expensive? Are presidential campaigns fair? Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

28 Issues in Presidential Campaigns
Since the Court's ruling in McCutcheon v. FEC, individuals have no limit on the number of campaigns to which they can contribute. Federal Election Commission monitors campaign finance Super PACs: Independent groups that can raise unlimited amounts of money from individuals, labor unions, and corporations and can spend it to support or oppose political candidates but cannot coordinate directly with candidates or political parties. Key Questions What are the pros and cons of laws that regulate campaign finance? Are presidential campaigns too expensive? Are presidential campaigns fair? Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

29 Total Spending by Presidential Candidates, 1976-2012
Figure 10.2 Spending in presidential campaigns has shown a steady increase over the past four decades, with big increases in the last two elections. By election day 2012, spending by presidential candidates had risen to about $1.8 billion. Source: From “Presidential Fundraising and Spending ,” Center for Responsive Politics, 2008. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

30 Issues in Presidential Campaigns
Although there is a high level of partisanship in the American electorate, swing voters, people who do not fall into either the Republican or Democratic camp, still exist. Swing States States that are not clearly pro-Republican or pro- Democrat and therefore are of vital interest to presidential candidates, as they can determine election outcomes. Ohio example of battleground state 90% of campaign visits to battleground states swing voters: Voters who are neither reliably Republican nor reliably Democratic and who are pursued by each party during an election, as they can determine which candidate wins. swing states: States that are not clearly pro-Republican or pro- Democrat and therefore are of vital interest to presidential candidates, as they can determine election outcomes. battleground state: State in which the outcome of the presidential election is uncertain and in which both candidates invest much time and money, especially if its votes are vital for a victory in the Electoral College. microtargeting: Gathering detailed information on cross sections of the electorate to track potential supporters and tailor political messages for them; also called narrowcasting. Key Questions What is your microtargeting profile? Can the category predict how you will vote?

31 Issues in Presidential Campaigns
In 2012, both Romney and Obama campaigned hard in Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, and Wisconsin because these were battleground states that each thought he had a chance to win. swing voters: Voters who are neither reliably Republican nor reliably Democratic and who are pursued by each party during an election, as they can determine which candidate wins. swing states: States that are not clearly pro-Republican or pro- Democrat and therefore are of vital interest to presidential candidates, as they can determine election outcomes. battleground state: State in which the outcome of the presidential election is uncertain and in which both candidates invest much time and money, especially if its votes are vital for a victory in the Electoral College. microtargeting: Gathering detailed information on cross sections of the electorate to track potential supporters and tailor political messages for them; also called narrowcasting. Key Questions What is your microtargeting profile? Can the category predict how you will vote?

32 Issues in Presidential Campaigns
Microtargeting Gathering detailed information on cross sections of the electorate to track potential supporters and tailor political messages for them; also called narrowcasting. Replacing traditional polling techniques Many versions of the same message includes identifying and tracking potential supporters so that campaign strategists can design specific political messages tailored for each of the “voting profiles” found from the data. In 1996, for example, President Bill Clinton’s reelection campaign sought to reach soccer moms—“busy suburban women devoted to their jobs and kids, who had real concerns about real presidential politics.” swing voters: Voters who are neither reliably Republican nor reliably Democratic and who are pursued by each party during an election, as they can determine which candidate wins. swing states: States that are not clearly pro-Republican or pro- Democrat and therefore are of vital interest to presidential candidates, as they can determine election outcomes. battleground state: State in which the outcome of the presidential election is uncertain and in which both candidates invest much time and money, especially if its votes are vital for a victory in the Electoral College. microtargeting: Gathering detailed information on cross sections of the electorate to track potential supporters and tailor political messages for them; also called narrowcasting. Key Questions What is your microtargeting profile? Can the category predict how you will vote?

33 Issues in Presidential Campaigns
Campaign Issues Valence issues: vague claim to a goal such as a “strong economy,” “improved education,” or “greater national security.” Position issues: voters understand plan Political issues that offer specific policy choices Wedge issues Divisive issue focused on a particular group of the electorate that candidates use to gain more support by taking votes away from their opponents. valence issues: position issues: Political issues that offer specific policy choices and often differentiate candidates’ views and plans of action. wedge issue: Divisive issue focused on a particular group of the electorate that candidates use to gain more support by taking votes away from their opponents. negativity: Campaign strategy of telling voters why they should not vote for the opponent and of highlighting information that raises doubts about the opponent. Key Questions Identify three wedge issues that are important to you. Do they determine your vote? What is your response to negative ads? Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

34 Issues in Presidential Campaigns
Negativity Negative campaigning is not new. A poster from the 1864 election shows Abraham Lincoln defining his opponent, General George McClellan, as the ally of Confederate President Jefferson Davis and perpetuator of the slave system. Lincoln, on the other hand, is for the workingman and freedom. valence issues: position issues: Political issues that offer specific policy choices and often differentiate candidates’ views and plans of action. wedge issue: Divisive issue focused on a particular group of the electorate that candidates use to gain more support by taking votes away from their opponents. negativity: Campaign strategy of telling voters why they should not vote for the opponent and of highlighting information that raises doubts about the opponent. Key Questions Identify three wedge issues that are important to you. Do they determine your vote? What is your response to negative ads? Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

35 Issues in Presidential Campaigns
Negative campaigning is not new. This poster from the 1864 election shows Abraham Lincoln defining his opponent, General George McClellan, as the ally of Confederate President Jefferson Davis and perpetuator of the slave system. Lincoln, on the other hand, is for the workingman and freedom. Notice the integrated school with happy children. Source: The Granger Collection, NYC Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

36 Issues in Presidential Campaigns
LBJ Daisy Ad Negative Political Ads Help generate debate among voters Outnumbered positive ads in the presidential campaigns Help ensure accountability Viewed by some as essential to the proper functioning of a democracy valence issues: position issues: Political issues that offer specific policy choices and often differentiate candidates’ views and plans of action. wedge issue: Divisive issue focused on a particular group of the electorate that candidates use to gain more support by taking votes away from their opponents. negativity: Campaign strategy of telling voters why they should not vote for the opponent and of highlighting information that raises doubts about the opponent. Key Questions Identify three wedge issues that are important to you. Do they determine your vote? What is your response to negative ads? Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

37 Issues in Presidential Campaigns
Source: AP Images/Democratic National Committee The “Daisy spot” is perhaps the most famous negative ad in American history. It was aired only once by President Lyndon Johnson in the 1964 campaign, and it never explicitly mentioned his opponent, Senator Barry Goldwater. But Goldwater had made statements about the possible use of nuclear weapons, and those statements made the meaning of this ad clear and emotionally resonant. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

38 Issues in Presidential Campaigns
Polls and Prediction Models Prediction models yield specific estimates of the vote share in presidential elections. Best prediction models use Economy Presidential popularity Incumbent party’s time in office Retrospective voting When voters tend to judge incumbents based upon their performance retrospective voting Theory that voting is driven by a citizen’s assessment of an officeholder’s performance since the last election. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

39 Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.
Share of Positive, Contrast, and Negative Ads in President Campaigns Figure 10.3 Negativity in presidential campaigns is clearly on the rise. From 2000 to 2004, the proportion of the messages in presidential campaign ads jumped from 30 percent to 40 percent of all ads and continued to increase to 50 percent in In the 2012 campaign, the figure reached over 60 percent, leaving less than 20 percent of the ads in the presidential campaign sending positive messages. Note: Data from 2000, 2004 and 2008 come from the Wisconsin Advertising Project. Data from 2012 come from the Wesleyan Media Project. Source: Erika Franklin Fowler* and Travis N. Ridout, “Negative, Angry, and Ubiquitous: Political Advertising in 2012,” DOI /forum , The Forum 2012, 10(4): 51–61. Source: John G. Geer, © Cengage Learning. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

40 Congressional Campaigns
The Decision to Run and the Primaries Midterm elections Congressional elections that occur in between the four-year presidential election cycles In a midterm election, the president's party is more likely to lose seats in Congress midterm elections Congressional elections held between the presidential elections. Key Questions What is the personal background of your representative? Of your senators? Did you vote in the 2014 midterm election? Why or why not? Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

41 Congressional Campaigns
The Fall Campaign To win a primary election, a Congressional candidate generally shapes campaign messages to please core party members in the district After primaries, candidates try to attract moderate voters Anthony Downs’ median voter theorem Geographic size of district affects strategy midterm elections Congressional elections held between the presidential elections. Key Questions What is the personal background of your representative? Of your senators? Did you vote in the 2014 midterm election? Why or why not? Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

42 Issues in Congressional Campaigns
Fundraising and Money In 2010 elections, candidates needed more than one million dollars to win or keep a seat Personal wealth provides an advantage Key Questions Are term limits for Congress a good idea? What are the pros and the cons? Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

43 Issues in Congressional Campaigns
The Role of Political Parties In congressional elections, national political parties pay for campaign training for candidates and their staffs. hold general party fundraisers. buy campaign advertisements that attack the opposing candidate so long as they do not mention their party’s candidate. share lists of campaign donors and party members who are likely to volunteer their time to candidates’ individual campaigns. Key Questions Are term limits for Congress a good idea? What are the pros and the cons? Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

44 Issues in Congressional Campaigns
Incumbency Advantage Almost always win congressional elections Vanishing marginals decline of competitive congressional elections Safe seats Seat in Congress considered to be reliably held by one party or the other. (noncompetitive district) Growing call for term limits vanishing marginals: Trend marking the decline of competitive congressional elections. safe seat: Seat in Congress considered to be reliably held by one party or the other. term limits: Rule restricting the number of terms an elected official can serve in a given office. presidential coattails: Effect of a popular president or presidential candidate on congressional elections, boosting votes for members of his party. strategic politician hypothesis: Effect that the strength of the economy and the popularity of the sitting president have on the decision to run for Congress. Key Questions If Congress is supposed to be the branch closest to the people, why do congressional campaigns generate less interest than do presidential campaigns? What might be the basis for your vote in the upcoming 2016 congressional elections? Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

45 Issues in Congressional Campaigns
Name Recognition Clay Aiken ran for Congress in North Carolina in Relative Lack of Interest Presidential coattails When a popular president running for reelection brings additional party candidates into office. Strategic politician hypothesis Effect that the strength of the economy and the popularity of the sitting president have on the decision to run for Congress vanishing marginals: Trend marking the decline of competitive congressional elections. safe seat: Seat in Congress considered to be reliably held by one party or the other. term limits: Rule restricting the number of terms an elected official can serve in a given office. presidential coattails: Effect of a popular president or presidential candidate on congressional elections, boosting votes for members of his party. strategic politician hypothesis: Effect that the strength of the economy and the popularity of the sitting president have on the decision to run for Congress. Key Questions If Congress is supposed to be the branch closest to the people, why do congressional campaigns generate less interest than do presidential campaigns? What might be the basis for your vote in the upcoming 2016 congressional elections? Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

46 Issues in Congressional Campaigns
Theories for why Congressional incumbents do so well in elections Name recognition is higher. Citizens become loyal to their representatives by receiving their help when needed. Members of Congress manipulate the bureaucracy to fail. Incumbents have the skills to win an election because they've already won in the past. vanishing marginals: Trend marking the decline of competitive congressional elections. safe seat: Seat in Congress considered to be reliably held by one party or the other. term limits: Rule restricting the number of terms an elected official can serve in a given office. presidential coattails: Effect of a popular president or presidential candidate on congressional elections, boosting votes for members of his party. strategic politician hypothesis: Effect that the strength of the economy and the popularity of the sitting president have on the decision to run for Congress. Key Questions If Congress is supposed to be the branch closest to the people, why do congressional campaigns generate less interest than do presidential campaigns? What might be the basis for your vote in the upcoming 2016 congressional elections? Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

47 Reelection Rates of Incumbents in Congress, 1996–2012
Figure 10.4 Source: Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

48 Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.
Loss of Seats in the House of Representatives by the President’s Party in Midterm Elections, Figure 10.5 The president’s party usually loses seats in midterm elections, sometimes with the consequence that the majority in the House of Representatives or the Senate changes hands. Source: Gerhard Peters, “Seats in Congress Gained/Lost by the President’s Party in Mid-Term Elections,” The American Presidency Project, Ed. John T. Woolley and Gerhard Peters, Santa Barbara, CA: University of California, , edu/data/mid-term elections.php. © , Gerhard Peters, The American Presidency Project. Reproduced by permission. Data for 2014, Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

49 Elections, Campaigns, and Democracy
Need to set aside partisanship to assess American political system Elections and campaigns ensure government responsiveness Votes forge accountability Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

50 Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission
Click picture to view video Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

51 Video Discussion Questions
Do you think average Americans notice who pays for political ads? Should all elections be funded by the government? Why or why not? Who benefits most from the Citizens United ruling? Who loses? Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.


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