1. EPA Global Change Research Program A TEN YEAR PLAN Presentation to 13 th Symposium on Global Change Studies Janet L. Gamble, Ph.D. National Center for Environmental Assessment Office of Research and Development U.S. Environmental Protection Agency January 14, 2002

2. EPA Global Change Research Program  Key elements and conceptual framework of EPA Global Change Research Program  Integration of Issue and Place-based Research and Assessment  Contribution of Assessment Findings to Decision Process  Next Steps for the Program Overview

3. EPA Global Change Research Program Essential Elements of the EPA Global Change Research Program Assess the potential consequences of global change for human health, ecosystems, and social well-being in the U.S. Provide scientific information to support decision making by policy makers, resource managers, and other stakeholders.  Variability in climate (e.g., El Nino, droughts, floods)  Climate change  Land-use change  UV radiation Focus on adaptation – building resilience to global change, while responding to both risks and opportunities. Examine how humans contribute to global change and respond to its consequences. Assessment of Consequences Science for decision making Independent & Interactive Effects of Multiple Stressors Adaptation Strategies Human Dimensions

4. EPA Global Change Research Program Stakeholder Input Assessment AnalysisCommunication Problem Form Charac Conseqs Research Test Hypotheses Generate Hypotheses Evaluate Results Research Assessment Inform Decisions Global Change Research Program’s Conceptual Framework KEYS to the FRAMEWORK:  Parallel process of research and assessment.  Interaction with stakeholders throughout the research and assessment process.  The goal is to develop a credible science base to inform decision making.

5. EPA Global Change Research Program  The EPA GCRP knows that development of science to support decision making hinges on the inclusion of stakeholders throughout the assessment process.  Stakeholders help to establish the goals of the assessment by - identifying specific information needs - providing expertise - providing data and information on a variety of topics including public values, equity considerations, and relevant decision processes.  The uncertainties and information needs that stakeholders help to identify become the basis for prioritized research agendas. STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT

6. EPA Global Change Research Program Human Health Weather-related morbidity Water & vector-borne disease Airborne allergens Air pollutant health effects Water Quality Pollutants & pathogens Biocriteria Ecosystems Aquatic ecosystem watersheds Aquatic ecosystems coastal Invasive species Ecosystem services Great Lakes Mid-Upper Atlantic Gulf Coast Air Quality Prelim ambient air pollutants Ambient air pollutants Issue-Based Place-Based The Ten Year Plan for Issue & Place-Based Research & Assessment Note the extensive interactions within issues, across issues, and between issue and place-based efforts

7. EPA Global Change Research Program  Weather-related Morbidity: Heat Stress / Accidental Injury  Water and Vector-Borne Diseases.  Airborne Allergies.  Air Pollution Health Effects. Upcoming Research & Assessment: Global Change & Human Health

8. EPA Global Change Research Program  Aquatic Ecosystems.  Place-based Assessment. San Pedro in Arizona San Francisco Bay Watershed Washington DC area Watersheds  Protection of Ecosystem Services.  Invasive Nonindigenous Species. Upcoming Research & Assessment: Global Change & Ecosystems

9. EPA Global Change Research Program  Regional Weather Patterns under Climate Change.  Global Change Effects on Emissions (anthropogenic and biogenic).  Societal Change, Technological Advance, and Emissions.  Global Change and Air Quality. Upcoming Research & Assessment: Global Change & Air Quality

10. EPA Global Change Research Program  Climate Change and Land Use Change Effects on Pollutant Loads.  Impacts of Storm Surge and Sea Level Rise on Water Supplies.  Global Change and Implications for Biocriteria. Upcoming Research & Assessment: Global Change & Water Quality

11. EPA Global Change Research Program EPA’s Support of the USGCRP First National Assessment Process Human Health Johns Hopkins University Great Lakes University of Michigan Gulf Coast Southern University Mid-Atlantic Pennsylvania State University

12. EPA Global Change Research Program Next Steps: Spin-off of the Great Lakes Regional Assessment The Great Lakes Regional Assessment team has hosted workshops to evaluate how assessment findings can inform decision processes.  Great Lakes Water Levels (March 2001) - Loss of a foot of carrying capacity on a 1000 foot vessel leaves 3240 tons behind @ 50 trips per year results in revenue loss for 162,000 tons  Fisheries & Aquatic Ecosystems (June 2001)  Forests and Terrestrial Ecosystems (TBA)  Winter Recreation (TBA)  Agricultural Productivity (TBA)

13. EPA Global Change Research Program FY 2002 and Beyond: Next Steps for EPA’s GCRP Maintain commitment to assessment of global change within regions and sectors. During the next year, EPA will release 4 new RFAs for the next phase of assessments:  Great Lakes region  Mid-Upper Atlantic region  Gulf Coast region  Human Health sector  Special emphasis on examining the interface of science and decision making.  Continued integration of stakeholders into the process of research and assessment.

14. EPA Global Change Research Program Global Change Research Program @ www.epa.gov/globalresearch