1. ECOST PROJECT WP.4. ECOLOGICAL MODELING FOURTH REGULAR MEETING 10 -13 APRIL 2007 GUANGZHOU, CHINA WP.4 ECOLOGY CO-LEADER’S FINAL REPORT Karl Aiken, PhD Stephen Smikle, MSc. CENTRE FOR MARINE SCIENCES DEPARTMENT OF LIFE SCIENCES UNIVERSITY OF THE WEST INDIES, JAMAICA

2. WP4: Development of the Ecological component of the ECOST model Start date: Month 9 Start date: Month 9 Person-months: 48 Person-months: 48 Objectives: Objectives: 1. To develop the ecological components 2. Describe trophic relationships in selected marine and freshwater ecosystems in West Africa, Asia and the Caribbean 3. Explore ecosystem-level impacts on fishing effort and environmental stresses.

3. WP4: Development of the Ecological component of the ECOST model Summary of Work Description. Summary of Work Description. Work is description is divided into four sections: Work is description is divided into four sections: 1. WP4.1. Methodology using the Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) approach 2. WP4.2. Time series fitting in Ecosim: evaluating fisheries and environmental effects 3. WP4.3. Addressing uncertainty 4. WP4.4. Applications.

4. WP4. Deliverables Evaluation of food chains and relationships in each (eco)system Evaluation of food chains and relationships in each (eco)system Estimation of food consumption by fishes (via experiments and gut content analyses) Estimation of food consumption by fishes (via experiments and gut content analyses) Production inventory and documentation of fishers’ practices Production inventory and documentation of fishers’ practices Publication & distribution of first preliminary results Publication & distribution of first preliminary results Modeling of trophic chain and use of Ecosim. Modeling of trophic chain and use of Ecosim.

5. WP4. Deliverables (cont’d.) Comparative analyses of these ecosystems in relation to functioning and optimal use of natural primary production related to biodiversity Comparative analyses of these ecosystems in relation to functioning and optimal use of natural primary production related to biodiversity Determination of the positive results Determination of the positive results D5 (Month 20) and contributions to other deliverables e.g. D7 (Month 35) and others D5 (Month 20) and contributions to other deliverables e.g. D7 (Month 35) and others Posters for ECOST seminars Posters for ECOST seminars Participation in delivery of P1-6, B1-3, F1, P7-18, B4-10 and F2. Participation in delivery of P1-6, B1-3, F1, P7-18, B4-10 and F2.

6. WR2.P4. ECOLOGY: MILESTONES & RESULTS R2, R3 meetings for validation of results R2, R3 meetings for validation of results R4 meeting (China) for presentation of Results R4 meeting (China) for presentation of Results Other meetings for incorporation of the results into ECOST dynamics Other meetings for incorporation of the results into ECOST dynamics Models and database made available to interested persons, potential users and beneficiaries of ECOST. Models and database made available to interested persons, potential users and beneficiaries of ECOST. Major results: Contribution to the ECOST modeling. Major results: Contribution to the ECOST modeling.

7. Final Report (Cont’d.) Technical Results: Technical Results: Models for 1. Tobago, Dominican Republic and Jamaica produced Models for 1. Tobago, Dominican Republic and Jamaica produced Main template was the Jamaica model Main template was the Jamaica model Plus, bibliography of over 200 reference papers & texts, relevant to ECOST collected Plus, bibliography of over 200 reference papers & texts, relevant to ECOST collected Methodology incorporated into presentation based on Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) software Methodology incorporated into presentation based on Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) software Ecologist successfully worked with Jamaica, Dominican Republic & Tobago Fisheries Departments as data suppliers. Ecologist successfully worked with Jamaica, Dominican Republic & Tobago Fisheries Departments as data suppliers.

8. Map of Greater Caribbean Area showing Study Sites JAMAICA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TOBAGO

9. Coral reefs

10. MODELING TROPHIC RELATIONSHIPS: FUNCTIONAL GROUPS ON CARIBBEAN (SELECTED)

11. TROPHIC FLOW (DIET MATRIX) TABLE - JAMAICA

12. ECOPATH WITH ECOSIM MODEL (JAMAICA) (TROPHIC FLOW DIAGRAM) ECOPATH WITH ECOSIM MODEL (JAMAICA) (TROPHIC FLOW DIAGRAM)

13. ECOPATH WITH ECOSIM MODEL (JAMAICA) (TROPHIC FLOW INPUT DATA)

14. INTERPRETATION OF MODELS EE values were relatively low, showing that there was relatively poor ecological energy transfer between trophic levels EE values were relatively low, showing that there was relatively poor ecological energy transfer between trophic levels Generally, values were approximately similar for Q/B, P/B Generally, values were approximately similar for Q/B, P/B This broad similarity would be expected, as all three countries have the same species on and around their coral reefs. This broad similarity would be expected, as all three countries have the same species on and around their coral reefs. The status (level or intensity of fishing) of the three fisheries, however, differed, with Jamaica being most heavily impacted. The status (level or intensity of fishing) of the three fisheries, however, differed, with Jamaica being most heavily impacted.

15. Final Report (Cont’d.) Difficulties encountered Data available for all three countries, included catch and effort for reef based fisheries, with reef fishes, as well as conch (Strombus gigas) and lobster (Panulirus argus) since 1997 through 2005. Data available for all three countries, included catch and effort for reef based fisheries, with reef fishes, as well as conch (Strombus gigas) and lobster (Panulirus argus) since 1997 through 2005. Much of these data tended to be lumped into marketing categories Much of these data tended to be lumped into marketing categories In Jamaica for example, such as “quality” and “trash”. Data not readily available as species categories for fin fish. In Jamaica for example, such as “quality” and “trash”. Data not readily available as species categories for fin fish. For all countries, only selected species were available, though these were the important ones. For all countries, only selected species were available, though these were the important ones.

16. EXAMPLE OF DATA COLLECTED - JAMAICA 19971998199920002001200220032004 Finfish5,578.754,160.986,283.744,585.554,348.577,000.004,594.928,811.03 Conch1,821.201,700.001,366.000.00946.00 504.25550.00 Lobster269.63169.66329.90517.30943.39358.67300.00134.49 Shrimp67.0414.544.4936.6738.5037.5437.00 Total Marine Fish Production (t)7,746.876,045.187,984.135,139.526,327.848,342.215,436.179,495.52

17. Final Report (Cont’d.) Data gaps were identified. These included: Data gaps were identified. These included: –Absolute abundances –Total Mortalities –Consumption estimates

18. OTHER MINOR PROBLEMS Delay in EwE training until Sete, France Workshop in Feb-March 2007. Delay in EwE training until Sete, France Workshop in Feb-March 2007.

19. DOMINICAN REPUBLIC & TOBAGO

20. Results of Mass Balanced Model for Jamaica

21. ECOSIM Time Series Results – Jamaica: Great Barracuda

22. ECOSIM Time Series Results – Jamaica: Nassau grouper

23. WP.4. Achievements - Summary Completed first EwE models for reef fisheries of Jamaica, Dominican Republic & Tobago Completed first EwE models for reef fisheries of Jamaica, Dominican Republic & Tobago Completed collection of catch and effort data. Completed collection of catch and effort data. Determined and selected the most important commercial species and refined data for those selected species Determined and selected the most important commercial species and refined data for those selected species Developed specific methodologies to collect missing data, such as diet composition etc. Developed specific methodologies to collect missing data, such as diet composition etc. Produced Ecological modeling paper (“Ecosystems at risk..”) for IIFET Conference, Portsmouth, UK, July, 2006 Produced Ecological modeling paper (“Ecosystems at risk..”) for IIFET Conference, Portsmouth, UK, July, 2006 Training done at Sete, France, Workshop in the use of the EwE software. Training done at Sete, France, Workshop in the use of the EwE software. END END