1. Future skills and competences in the pulp and paper industry Steve Bainbridge, Cedefop Vienna, 22 February 2016

2. Past and forecast employment, EU (millions) Source: Cedefop skills forecasts (2015)

3. Labour saving technology?

4. Shares of broad occupation groups in manufacturing and sector of wood, paper, print and publishing Source: Cedefop skills forecasts (2015)

5. Changes in working-age population and labour force by age, 2013-25 EU (%) Source: Cedefop skills forecasts (2015)

6. Total job opportunities 2015-25, EU (thousands) Source: Cedefop skills forecasts (2015)

7. Labour force trends by qualifications 2005-25, EU (%) Source: Cedefop skills forecasts (2015)

8. Skill mismatch – what is it? OverqualificationLacking the right skills

9. Skill mismatch Employers unable to find the right talent, despite offering competitive wages, face skill shortages. Skill gaps arise where the skills required are unavailable in the workforce, for example, due to technological advance. Over or underqualification is where individuals take jobs that do not match their qualifications. People are over or underskilled where, whatever their qualification level, their skills do not match their job

10. Share of adult workers with skill deficits, EU (%) Source: Cedefop European skills and jobs survey (2015)

11. Changing job tasks and skill development (EU) Source: Cedefop European skills and jobs survey (2015) Adult employees whose tasks have become significantly more varied since they started their job Adult employees whose skills have not developed since they started their job

12. Many jobs still have low skill needs (EU) Source: Cedefop European skills and jobs survey (2015) Adult employees needing only basic literacy to do their job Adult employees needing only basic or no ICT skills to do their job

13. Adult employees whose education or training involves some work-based learning (EU) Source: Cedefop European skills and jobs survey (2015) Adult employees completing education and training involving some work-based learning Adult employees in professional, scientific or technical services completed studies with no work-based learning

14. Principles for skill anticipation systems High quality complementary data on different labour market developments; Capacity to analyse data to interpret developments and their implications; Organisations or committees to structure cooperation between interested parties; Mechanisms to transfer agreed findings concerning future skill needs into VET curricular.

15. New data and results ONLINE Look for at cedefop.europa.eu

16. Six key points Technology good at routine; but people make businesses competitive. Skills in demand will be behavioural skills to deal with non-routine tasks. Demand for high-skills, but also medium-level skills to replace people leaving the labour market. Skill mismatch affects employees not just unemployed people. To reduce skill mismatch raising qualification levels is not enough. Skills must also be used and developed through work-based learning, continuing training and good jobs. Skill anticipation systems (Why, how much, which methods, for whom?)

17. And last but not least… None of this can happen without the social partners

18. Thank you for your attention More information: www.cedefop.europa.eu or skills-analysis@cedefop.europa.eu Access the forecast data and results online at www.cedefop.europa.eu!www.cedefop.europa.eu