1. Dublin Unified School District Presented by Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. May 10, 2016 “Draft” 7-Year Forecast and Maturity Analysis Using Resident Student Projections and Are Based on Fall 2015 Student Data

2. Work Accomplished by DDP for Dublin USD n Set-up GIS Data Layers (including mapping 4 years of student data) n Acquired latest parcel & street data from the City GIS Department n Researched current and future new housing n Meetings and conference calls with Planning & District n Incorporated new residential development in projections n Calculated specific factors for Dublin area (birth data & mobility) n Prepared 7-year student forecast & maturation study n Provided the District with a SchoolSite Locator (address lookup) n Will provide a Demographic Study with findings and analysis 1

3. 2 Mapping the District’s Student Data The last 4 years of mapped student data were analyzed (from October). Dots are placed where students reside (geocoding)

4. 2015/16 Elementary School Attendance Matrix H elps the District track its open enrollment distribution. Also created a Middle School and High School Matrix 3

5. 4 DDP 7-Year Projection Methodology

6. Dublin Birth Data – By Zip Code5 Page 5 of the Report Most of Dublin Mostly Pleasanton and part of Dublin

7. DDP Projected Units for the Next 7 years for Dublin USD (2016-2022) 2,323 Single Family Detached (SFD) units 1,710 Multi-Family Attached (MFA) units 631 Apartment (APT) rental units 4,664 TOTAL UNITS BUILT (667 per year) Arrived at above figure by accomplishing the following: site visits for all active projects throughout the District speaking with sales reps Meetings and conference calls with City planners, the County and District Staff Online research (City GIS, project/developer websites, Google Earth, etc.) 6

8. Planned Residential Development Over 4,600 homes are expected to be built and occupied over the next seven years. 7 Page 14 of the Report

9. Planned Residential Development Within the City, there are over 20 developers building over 38 individual housing projects which contain over 4,600 new units to be built and occupied over the next seven years. Page 14 of the Report Over the next 7 years 8

10. Historical Residential Development9 1960’s 1980’s 2000’s 1990’s 2010-15 Annual New Housing Unit Construction

11. Student Yield Factors *The Student Yield Factors were calculated by Davis Demographics Student Yield Factors are used to determine how many students may possibly arrive from new housing. Housing Type Definitions: SFD – Single Family Detached MFA – Multi-Family Attached (condos, townhomes, etc.) APT – Apartments 10 Page 8 of the Report

12. Mobility Factors DDP conducts historical student data comparisons for Study Areas where there are no new residential development over the past five years DDP used 4 years of mapped student data (Fall 2012-15) and conducts annual grade transition analysis using an average (instead of weighted method) – (3 years of change). This factor helps to account for housing resales, foreclosures, apartment migration and HS dropouts. 11 3 Years of Change Page 7 of the Report

13. Projections for Each Study Area Individual projections were generated for each of the District’s 127 Study Areas 12 STUDY AREA 63 PROJECTION

14. Projections for Each Attendance Area Individual projections were generated for each of the District’s 7 elementary school attendance areas, as well as its 2 middle school and high school attendance areas. These are simply the addition of the individual Study Area projections that make up each attendance area. Elementary School Attendance Area projections are on pages 23-29 in the report. 13 DOUGHERTY ES ATTENDANCE AREA

15. Page 20 of the report District-wide 7-Year Projections + Maturation Huge bubble in the elementary schools, to enter Middle and High Schools Impact from Mobility and Development 14 20-30 Years out?? Currently heavily weighted in the younger grades Maturity is when everything is built out and settled in

16. DDP Maturation Projection Methodology 15

17. District-wide 7-Year Projections + Maturation Page 20 of the report The above projections include 215 K-6 SDC students, but exclude 54 Pre-K students. 16 Net Growth over the next 7 years Through 2022-23 SY

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19. Net K-5 Growth/Decline in Current Attendance Areas from 2015 to 2022 in the Dublin USD 18 Net K-5 Growth over the next 7 years = + 2,129 Through 2022-23 SY

20. Net 6-8 Growth/Decline in the Current Attendance Areas from 2015 to 2022 in the Dublin USD 19 Net 6-8 Growth over the next 7 years = + 1,324 Through 2022-23 SY

21. Net 9-12 Growth/Decline in the Current Attendance Areas from 2015 to 2022 in the Dublin USD 20 Net 9-12 Growth over the next 7 years = + 1,910 Through 2022-23 SY

22. Summary (Main Issues) nNet growth throughout the District over the next seven years. Student data is HEAVILY skewed towards younger grades (K through 4, right now). Student population will eventually mature and more evenly distribute among the grades starting around the next 10-15 years. nThere may be as many as 4,600 mixed units built over the next seven years (8,000 total by build-out). [In sync with City projections] nBased on current conditions, over the next seven years there is a need for 3 flexible sites serving K-8 students. Could be a combination of 2 K-5 sites and 1 K-8 school by 2022. One needed in Jordan Ranch area, one in Dublin Crossing area and another potential K-8 site needed (located somewhere in-between these two sites). nDefinite need for a 2 nd high school over the next seven years. Most immediate concern for the District is how to house the growth in the high school grades until a second high school is built and opened. 21

23. Questions?