1. Peak Oil Perspectives Bob Everett Open University EERU April 2008

2. n The IEA’s assessment is that oil (and gas) reserves are sufficient to sustain economic growth “for the foreseeable future”, and “to meet anticipated increases in world energy demand through to 2030”. Sir David King, Chief Scientist, 2007 IEA Forecast, 2001 Graphic: Open University

3. The projected continuous increase in oil production seems to have stalled in 2005 Pic: Oil Drum - Gail Tverberg

4. The oil price has gone up (both in $ and euros) but the dollar and the pound are collapsing against the euro Graphic: ASPO Netherlands Data: Oanda.com

5. But - not to worry! There’s lots of oil in the ground! Graphic: IEA - Sir David King’s note to APPGOPO, 2007

6. Indeed the world seems to be ‘running into oil’….. Graphic: Energy Bulletin - Gail Tverberg

7. But should we believe this? ‘The publishing of data is a political act’ Jean Laherrère The Petroconsultants database was set up by a company paid by oil companies to spy on other oil companies

8. In 1956 M.King Hubbert predicted that US oil production would peak around 1965-1970 It did … at the end of 1970. He went on to predict that world oil production would peak around 2000. Pic: Energy Bulletin

9. The rate of oil production has been greater than that of discovery since the mid-1980s

10. A gloomy (or realistic?) projection from ASPO-Ireland

11. Another gloomy projection from the Energy Watch Group

12. Peak Gas Graphic: Open University

13. A 2001 projection from Jean Laherrère Graphic: Open University

14. Peak Coal Energy Watch Group 2007

15. The bright nuclear future…. King Hubbert was initially a great nuclear fan...

16. Or not…. Energy Watch Group 2006

17. Peak Oil/Gas/Coal and Climate Change Kharecha & Hansen, 2007

18. James Hansen’s recent projections of ‘Business as Usual’ global CO 2 emissions Kharecha & Hansen, 2007

19. If we have a coal phase-out by 2050 then CO 2 levels might be kept below 450 ppm. Kharecha & Hansen, 2007

20. James Hansen’s alternative BAU with lower oil, gas and particularly coal reserves. This might stay under 450 ppm if the ‘peakists’ are right. Kharecha & Hansen, 2007

22. Energy Return on Investment (EROI) Charles Hall - Oil Drum

23. So which do you want to worry about most and in what order? Climate Change? Peak Oil? Peak Gas? Peak Coal? Peak Uranium? Peak Investment Capital?

24. For more news on this ongoing saga see: The Oil Drum - http://www.theoildrum.com The Energy Bulletin - http://www.energybulletin.net ASPO Ireland - www.aspo-ireland.org For more on Sustainable Energy see the OU T206 Sustainable Energy Course website: http://www.open.ac.uk/T206