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Published byJanice Casey Modified over 8 years ago
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Sources for oil into the sea
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Continuous decline in tanker incidents
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Tanker incident by cause 1978-2002
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131 tanker incident 2001
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Port State Control All ships versus tankers
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erik.ranheim@intertanko.com Madrid 27 June 2002 International Association of Independent Tanker Owners S afe T ransport, C lean S eas, F ree C ompetition
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The state of the industry S tatus P erformance M arket
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The state of the industry Status V ital to world economy A nonymous I mproved ralations to other industry players
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Accountable to society
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Performance
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Accidental oil pollution reduced by 78% in the 90s
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No major spill since Erika
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US oil spills into the sea - gallons
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US oil spills into the sea - number
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Port State Control- detention ratio All ships versus tankers
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Marine Quality Assurance System Clear and credible???
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Transparency benefit the good operators
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Oil companies reducing fleets
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Suezmax fleet Ownership and Employment
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Aframax fleet Ownership and Employment
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The state of the industry market L ow freight market, declining prices N o driving forces in the oil market T onnage balance relatively tight, high scrapping
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Tanker spot rates Jan 2000 - June 2002
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Crude oil seaborne trade - Indices
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Europe
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JAPAN
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USA
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Oil consumption in selected Asian countries
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OPEC/non-OPEC crude oil production 1971-2002 (Proj.)
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FSU oil exports
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N Sea oil production, mbd
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Rates easy chemicals (Clarkson)
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Seaborne chemical trades - mil tonnes Source: Drewry
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Chemical tanker fleet development – no.
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Supply
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ERIKA I – Phase out
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Tanker deliveries and deletions 10-80,000 dwt Aframaxes Suezmaxes VLCCs 10-80,000 dwt 44 68 160 132
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Newbuilding prices
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Aframaxprice in Korea, 1992-June-02
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Aframax price in Japan, 1992-June-02
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Modernisation tankers
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Prospects
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Source: Fearnleys, IEA, INTERTANKO Will the strong growth continue?
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Morgan Stanley Capital Index 1990-2002
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..added uncertainty.... Cheney Report…US National Energy Policy..
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Source: BMW WWWsite Oil - a Sunset Industry? The Future is Here Today ” P owered with S un and w ater The BMW 750hL, the youngest member of the BMW hydrogen vehicle family”
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B leak short term outlook, but T anker market conditions change fast P ossible scenarios; Invasion Iraq, terrorism, debt problems, unilateralism, more short haul crude, or International co-operation, reduced tension, moderate oil price, successful G7 efforts to stimulate the economy… Looking ahead
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