1. Provincial Disaster Management Authority Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Contingency Plan Monsoon 2012

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3. Sequence  Contingency Planning for Monsoon 2012  Challenges  Recommendations

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5. Salient Features 5 Pre-positioningParticipatory and ConsultativeRealistic and PracticableNeed assessment and Gap analysis Roles-Responsibilities clearly identified and assigned Bottom up approach

6. Process STEP 1 (Threat Perception and Likely Scenarios) PDMA, Irrigation Department, Pakistan Metrological Department, Pak Army, DCOs and UN agencies STEP 2 (Need and Gap Analysis ) PDMA, Relevant Provincial Departments, Pakistan Army (HQ 11 Corps) and DCOs STEP 3 (Comments and Finalization) Sharing of Plan with Provincial Departments, District Governments, Pak Army, Humanitarian Organizations (UN Agencies) and INGOs/NGOs 6

7. Preparatory Meetings for Monsoon 2012 7 Stakeholders Workshop - Feb 06, 2012 Preliminary Meeting with PMD, Provincial Irrigation Department and Pak Army - 23rd Feb 2012 Meeting with representatives of 10 most vulnerable districts, Pak Army, PMD, Irrigation Deptt and UN agencies - April 04, 2012 Meeting with all relevant Provincial Departments held on April 26, 2012 Meeting with Minister Climate Change, NDMA, CS, Secretaries, Commissioners on May 15, 2012 Timeline & format for preparation of Monsoon CP shared with stakeholders and possible scenarios discussed Disaster Mitigation Measures by all stakeholders shared and Needs & Gaps reviewed Early warning systems and capacity of PMD KP Chapter discussed Departments and districts requested to prepare their respective CPs Draft plan and caseload shared with stakeholders, progress on flood protection work and encroachment reviewed CS directed to expedite installation of Radar at Cherat and EWS at Kalpani, Take-up issues of marginal bands at Jindi River & DI Khan with FFC & Army and clearance of river encroachments

8. 8 Coordination Mechanism Provincial Department PDMA – KP (PEOC) PDMA – KP (PEOC) HQ 11 Corps Pak Army (Rescue) Humanitarian Organizations (UN, I/NGOs Affected Communities District Government (DDMU)

9. Information C&W Social Welfare Education Transport Food PHELGD Agriculture Civil Defence Rescue 1122 Environment / Forest DCOs 9 Stakeholders at Provincial Level PDMA Army PMD Irrigation

10. Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA)  Carry out flood preparedness coordination meetings with districts and provincial departments  Formulate provincial monsoon contingency plan  DG PDMA in consultation with Secretary Relief, Rehabilitation & Settled Department and Chief Secretary will be responsible for Response & Relief Operations.  Director Relief PDMA will head a Composite Team (comprising representatives of Lead Agency/Department and focal persons of support organizations) to coordinate response & relief operations  Operationalize Provincial Emergency Operation Centre (PEOC)  Provision of requisite funds and resources  Coordinate with Pak Army for initiating emergency response  Coordinate with UN Agencies and other humanitarian partners 10 Roles & Responsibilities

11. 11 Irrigation Department  Establishment of Provincial and district level Flood Emergency Cell  Formulate and execute flood emergency response plan  Establishment of Flood/water Monitoring Network  Provide early warning:  16 – 24 hours warning along Swat River  5-7 hours along Kabul  36 – 48 hours along Indus at DI Khan  Removal of encroached areas with the assistance of DCOs, TMA and C&W Department  Necessary liaison with Pak Army, Frontier Constabulary and Scouts for initiation of flood fighting operations (DI Khan Only)

12. 12 Pakistan Army  Establish flood Coordination Centers  Assist in search & rescue and response operations  Coordinate with PDMA and other departments to make up the short falls Pak Meteorological Department (Provincial Chapter)  Establishment of Flood Emergency Cell  Provide reliable and in-time weather forecasts for KP and its catchment areas  Coordinate, liaison and exchange information with Irrigation and PDMA for early warning

13. Food Department  Keeping stock of wheat available as per the requirement at various places.  Assist PDMA and District in the availability of Food items in case of disaster  Provision of warehouse facilities 13

14. Health Department  Establish a Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Cell- HEPR  Carry out detailed planning with district officials (EDOs) and formulate district level health plans for execution  Carry out need and gap analysis for medicines and required stocks  Coordinate with humanitarian agencies i.e. INGOs, NGOs and UN agencies to make up the short falls 14

15. 15 Information Department  Develop communication action plan  Notifying the establishment of a flood emergency control room/unit  Broadcast advance warnings to sensitize the public  Guide the public about the nearby safer places, routes and other precautionary measures  Publication of the flood-related reports on daily-basis in the local, regional and national newspapers  Arrange press briefings/press conferences for any officer/official

16. 16 Education Department  Provide support to the District Admin for establishing evacuation centres  Continuation of education in affected areas  Coordinate with humanitarian agencies i.e. INGOs, NGOs and UN agencies  Coordinate with LGD and PHE for requisite Water and Sanitation in evacuation centres

17. Agriculture Department   Arrange for live stock fodder, mobile veterinary clinics and vaccination cover   Arrange for provision of seeds and agriculture inputs after floods   Arrange for de-silting of channels and levelling of Agri- land after floods   Coordinate with humanitarian agencies i.e. INGOs, NGOs and UN agencies 17

18. 18 Environment/Forest Department  Undertake assessment of vulnerabilities of the natural resources  Minimize the cutting of trees before and during monsoons  Arrange for removing the logs from Nullahs and stock them at safe places. Social Welfare and Transport  Development of linkages with the community volunteers for effective rescue and response mechanism

19. 19 Home & Tribal Affairs Department  Facilitate DCOs through Police Wireless Net in case of communication failure of other networks  Facilitate the irrigation department flood monitoring / gauging communication Civil Defence  Establishment of Flood Emergency Control Cell in respective districts  Keeping the volunteers on alert  Performance of rescue operations  Assist in the performance of relief activities. Rescue 1122  Establishment of Flood Emergency Control Cell in Peshawar & Mardan  Performance of rescue operations

20. 20 Local Government  Notifying the establishment of a provincial flood emergency control room/unit  Arrange potable drinking water and sanitation facilities during Flood  Preparation of TMA-wise list/ stock position of flood emergency response equipments and machineries  Arrange for the removal of carcasses and debris  Contingency plans for immediate restoration of water supply, sanitation, cause ways, culverts and links roads etc  Coordinate with humanitarian agencies  Arrange for requisite Water and Sanitation in all the earmarked evacuation centres

21. Tehsil Municipal Administration (TMA)   TMOs to be declared focal person   Ensure to remove the encroachments   Keep close liaison and coordination with respective DCO’s and DDMU’s   TMO’s and their staff should be trained/sensitized by the respective DCO’s/ DDMU for monsoon emergency response and role and responsibilities   Cleanliness of sewerage and Nullah by the respective TMA 21

22. 22 Public Health Engineering Department (PHED)  Notifying the establishment of a provincial flood emergency control room/unit  Arrange potable drinking water and sanitation facilities during Flood  Preparation of TMA-wise list/ stock position of flood emergency response equipments and machineries  Arrange for the removal of carcasses and debris  Contingency plans for immediate restoration of water supply, sanitation, cause ways, culverts and links roads etc  Coordinate with humanitarian agencies  Arrange for requisite Water and Sanitation in all the earmarked evacuation centres

23. 23 District Governments  Formulation of District level contingency plans  Establishment of District level flood control rooms  Removal of encroachments  Excavation work of threatening water channels  Quick dissemination of flood warning  Maintaining of NFIs stock  Arrangement of availability of food items on need basis  Activation of Civil defence staff and volunteers  Evacuation arrangements  Coordination with humanitarian agencies  Identification of flood disaster prone areas and threatening water channels  Liaison with armed forces for rescue operations.  Maintenance of law and order situation  Flood protection works in respective district with sand bags and locally available material  Coordination and tasking of all relevant departments for putting in place requisite preparedness measures

24. 24 Humanitarian Community UN Agencies, Pakistan Red Crescent Society PRCS, INGO & NGOs   Formulate their organizational Flood Contingency and Response Plans consistent with provincial and national policies   Consolidates the cluster Flood Contingency and Response Plans with PDMA.   Arranging joint assessment and monitoring based on the model agreed at the Federal level between NDMA and OCHA   Coordinate the deployment of humanitarian assistance and flood response   The immediate relief needs of the affected communities i.e. food & water and health etc   Follow-up relief measures e.g. repair of houses, repair/replacement of health infrastructure, community infrastructure, replanting of Rabi crops and education etc.   Identification of the weaker and vulnerable groups in society.   Reporting progress on a regular basis using the 4Ws monitoring tool.

25. PMD Monsoon 2012 Forecast (May 2012) 25 Most of the Climate Prediction Centers predict normal to below normal rainfall over the country during Monsoon 2012 However current abnormal climatic conditions in Pakistan create possibilities of a few extreme events of rainfall which can result in flash flooding in rivers & local nullahs.

26. PMD Monsoon 2012 Forecast (13 th June, 2012) 26   Snow melt rate is lower than normal due to generally below normal temperature in northern areas and frequent passage of westerlies in May & June   Contribution of Snow melt to riverine flood will be minimal   El-Nino likely to develop in August which has negative effects on Pakistan   Heavier than normal winter snow is a signal of weaker monsoon   Western disturbance will continue effecting northern half of Pakistan and its interactions with monsoon current may produce heavy downpours  Outlook   Strong likelihood of +05 -15% average precipitation during monsoon 2012   Erratic spread of monsoon on temporal and spatial scale may cause very high localize rainfalls at times resulting into flash flooding

27. Scenarios Assumed Scenario - Water Flow Assumption for 2012 Monsoon The Worst Case Scenario - 2010 Floods with similar caseload -Improbable. 27 Rivers Max Flow Recorded before 2010 2010 Floods Levels (Assumed High Impact Flow Level for 2012) Assumed Flow Levels For Medium Impact Flood level 2012 (Aprox) Swat @ Amandara 160,000 cusecs (1929)295,000 cusecs150,000 cusecs Swat @ Munda170,000 cusecs (1929)367,000 cusecs200,000 cusecs Kabul River @ Nowshera 169,000 cusecs (2005)500,000 cusecs300,000 cusecs Indus @ Khairabad 900,000 cusecs (1929)1,100,000 cusecs750,000 cusecs

28. Planned Relief Caseloads for 2012 28 S#Districts Affected HH High Floods (2010 based) Affected HH Medium Floods (Assumed for 2012) Peshawar Valley 1Peshawar33,80010,000 2Charsadda71,00020,000 3Nowshera71,00025,000 4Mardan2,800900 5Swabi2,200730 Total180,80056,630 Southern Districts 6Tank21,20016,500 7D I Khan56,30040,000 8Lakki Marwat4,0003,000 9Kohat5,5001,550 17Karak7,2001,000 21Bannu7,7002,500 18Hangu6,5001,000 Total108,40065,550

29. Planned Relief Caseloads for 2012 29 S#Districts Affected HH High Floods (2010 based) Affected HH Medium Floods (Assumed for 2012) 10Mansehra3,2002,000 11Dir Lower25,8008,000 12Malakand6,4003,000 13Shangla11,5004,000 14Dir Upper30,00010,000 15Kohistan66,00020,000 20Battagram1,488490 22Buner802260 23Haripur2,2002,600 24Abbottabad8,000830 25Tor Ghar2,500800 16Swat90,50012,500 Total248,39064,480 19Chitral9,8005,000 Grand Total547,390191,660

30. Peshawar Valley- Risk and Vulnerability Mapping

31. North and Hazara - Risk and Vulnerability Mapping

32. South- Risk and Vulnerability Mapping

33. Chitral- Risk and Vulnerability Mapping

34. 34 Funds Position with Distt (Rs. million)

35. 35 Fund Position with Districts (Rs. Million)……

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37. Need and Gap Analysis - KP. Pre- monsoon anticipated needs (Structural & Non Structural)Pre- monsoon anticipated needs (Structural & Non Structural). Anticipated Needs during and after FloodsAnticipated Needs during and after Floods Emergency Response & RescueEmergency Response & Rescue Relief (Food & water, NFI & Shelter, Health)Relief (Food & water, NFI & Shelter, Health) Public servicesPublic services. Monetary RequirementMonetary Requirement 37

38. Estimated Humanitarian Response Required Monsoon 2012 Show Details

39. NFIs- Need and Gaps 39

40. Food Items- Needs  High Impact Scenario: 3 Months Food Rations approximately = 159,619 Metric Tons  Medium Impact Scenario: 3 Months Food Rations approximately = 55,888 Metric Tons  Immediate Needs for Pre-positioning for 30 Days 1554.743 Metric Tons for Madyan, Kalam, Bahrain and Kandiya Valley Swat, Shangla and Kohistan for approx 200,000 Ind)  Immediate Needs for Pre-positioning for 30 Days 1554.743 Metric Tons for Madyan, Kalam, Bahrain and Kandiya Valley ( Swat, Shangla and Kohistan for approx 200,000 Ind) 40

41. Finances Rs in Million  High Impact Scenario3985  Medium Impact Scenario1255  Funds available with the districts124.98  Funds with PDMA for Relief Ops107.5  Total Available Funds232.5  Funds Needed/Shortfall in HI3752  Funds Needed/Shortfall in MI 1022 41

42. Disaster Preparedness Measures Taken in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 42

43. 43 Disaster Preparedness measures by Irrigation Deptt.  Flood Damages Restoration Works under FDRD 22 Schemes completed (PKR 1.6 billion) 39 Schemes worth PKR 3.986 billion are in progress. Leftover Schemes 299 worth PKR 5.342 Billion Restoration work on Amandara H/W almost completed Restoration work on Kurram Ghari HW almost completed Civil Work of 6 out 8 bays of Munda H/W completed 5 out 8 gates in Munda H/W will be Installed till June 30, 2012  Provision of Wireless Communication System to improve communication (planned)  Master Planning of major rivers/nullahs of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

44. 44  Establishment of PEOC in PDMA linked to ten (10) most vulnerable districts  Strengthening of District Disaster Management Units in all districts  Construction of Provincial Humanitarian Response depot (Warehouse) – Funded by WFP  Provision of pre-fabricated storage facilities in 12 districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa – Funded by WFP  Training of Outboard Motors operators of Police, Rescue 1122, Irrigation Department and Civil Defence by Pak Army

45. Challenges in Flood Response  Inadequate DRM Measures (Structural & Non Structural)  Inadequate Meteorological Installations in the Province  Flood Protection Arrangements need to be enhanced  Lack of Flood Early Warning Arrangements  Lack of coordination between Hydrology wings of WAPDA & Irrigation Deptt  Encroachments into Floods Routes / Plains  Awareness of General Public (CBDRM)  Reduced Water Storage /Regulatory Capacity 45

46.  Enhanced DRM investment & DRR Mainstreaming in the Province according to the changing weather patterns and associated risks  Creation of independent posts of DDMO  Enhancing the capacity of Pak Met Department  Installation of Radar at Cherat  Improvement of Observatories  Flash flood forecasting center for Kalpani, Mardan  Flash Flood Warning Centers for vulnerable areas  Capacity Building of line departments and district/local administration  Modeling of catchment of Rivers to translate precipitation into run-off  River Zoning for the identification of flood prone areas  Efficient coordination mechanism among all the stakeholders Recommendations 46

47. For Further Information Please Contact : Mr. Rashid Ahmad Secretary Relief, Rehabilitation and Settlement Department email : secretary@pdma.gov.pk Relief, Rehabilitation and Settlement Department email : secretary@pdma.gov.pk Mr. Shahzad Khan Bangash Director General (PDMA/PaRRSA) email : dg@pdma.gov.pk dg@pdma.gov.pk Mr. Zulfiqar Ali Shah Director (Relief, Operation & Coordination) email : director.operations@pdma.gov.pk director.operations@pdma.gov.pk Mr. Muhammad Bakhtiar khan Deputy Director (Relief, Operation & c00rdination) Email: bakhtiar@pdma.gov.pk Website: http://www.pdma.gov.pk Provincial Disaster Management Authority/ Provincial Reconstruction, Rehabilitation & Settlement Authority (PDMA/PaRRSA) Civil Secretariat Khyber Road. Peshawar 47