1. WDYE? 3.4: Simulations Learning Target: I will design a simulation to find experimental probabilities. HW: Complete the WDYE Investigation 3.4 p. 12 and Correct with the Zaption video: WDYE 3.4 Warm Up: A bucket contains 24 blocks. Some are blue, some are green, some are red, and some are yellow. The theoretical probabilities of drawing a blue, green, or red block are: P(blue) = 1/12, P(green) = 1/8, and P(red) = 1/3. How many blocks of each color are in the bucket?

2. Warm-up Question A bucket contains 24 blocks. Some are blue, some are green, some are red, and some are yellow. The theoretical probabilities of drawing a blue, green, or red block are: P(blue) = 1/12, P(green) = 1/8, and P(red) = 1/3. How many blocks of each color are in the bucket?

3. p. 11 __________

4. Simulation: – A model used to find experimental probabilities Why Simulations Are Important: – Predict actions – Understand behavior – Identify problem areas – Explore effects – Confirm variables – Identify faults

5. Examples in Real Life – Flight simulation to train pilots – Weather forecasting – Forecasting market prices of the financial markets using computer software – Observing the behavior of structures (buildings) under stress and other conditions – Simulations of transportation for traffic engineering

6. p. 11

8. Play the game 25 times. Keep track of how many times you win. What was your experimental probability of winning? A. Use a simulation to find the experimental probability of winning. B. Then use the handout to determine the different ways you can scratch off two spots. Then use what you found to determine the theoretical probability of winning.

9. Match = Win! No Match = Lose No PrizePrize Selected Cards A B C D E How many possible outcomes are there? What is the theoretical probability of winning? If you play the game 60 times, how many times would you expect to win? Do you have a good chance of winning? Explain 100 possible outcomes 6 times out of 60 No, only 10%

10. $10 per prize card 100 x $10 = $1,000 spent to get 100 prize cards P (winning) = 1/10 = 10/100 So, you would expect to win about 10 video games E. Challenge: Describe a situation in which it would be very difficult to directly determine the probability of an event happening. Show how you could use simulation to help you figure out the approximate probabilities for the outcomes of the event. C. D. packet p. 11

12. WDYE? 3.4: Scratching Spots – Designing a Simulation Did I reach my Learning Target? I will design a simulation to find experimental probabilities. HW: Complete the WDYE Investigation 3.4 p. 12 and Correct with the Zaption video: WDYE 3.4