1. 5-1 Scheduling The Project

2. Outline: 5-2  Project network diagrams  Identifying critical paths and activities  Determining activity slack times  Gantt charts  Working with Microsoft Project  Uncertainty and risk management  Simulation approach to managing risk Homework: 25, 27, 31

3. 5-3 The Big Picture The Planning Process Project Conception Project Conception Launch Meeting Launch Meeting Action Plan WBS Action Plan WBS Project Master Schedule Project Master Schedule Scheduling Resource Allocation

4. 5-4 The Big Picture Define Activities WBS Estimate Activity Resources Estimate Activity Durations Sequence Activities Develop Schedule Control Schedule

5. 5-5 Project Scheduling Terms Activity Event Node Milestone Network Path Critical Path – The longest path through a network Critical Time

6. 5-6 Network Diagrams TaskPredecessor a b ca db eb fc,d ge f g e

7. 5-7 Network Diagrams

8. 5-8 ActivityTimeImmediate Predecessor(s) A1none B4A C3A D7A E6B F2C,D G7E,F H9D I4G,H Manual Network Example

9. 5-9 Manual Network Deterministic Examples ActivityTimePred(s) A1 B4A C3A D7A E6B F2C,D G7E,F H9D I4G,H ActivityTimePred(s) A6 B13 C8A D7B E3C,D F4D G3E,F H3E I2H J2G

10. Project Description Notes: First, before any tasks are entered, click on the Project tab, Change working time, Work weeks, Details. Make all 7 days of the week working days from 8am to 12pm and 1pm to 5pm. Predecessors are entered as numbers. Enter task names (a, b, c, etc.), durations, and predecessors as numbers. Under Tasks, add columns of custom information, to add ES, EF, LS, LF, and Total Slack (MSP will calculate these automatically) Project Table 5-3 MSP Intro Example 1 of 4 5-10 a a a b,c d d,e f g,h

11. Project Information & Network Layout Notes: To view the network diagram. View tab, Network Diagram. Format tab, Layout Allow manual box positioning Link style = Straight Notes: Project Project Information Statistics MSP Intro Example 2 of 4 5-11

12. Network Diagram MSP Intro Example 3 of 4 5-12

13. Gantt Chart Notes: Format Gantt Chart Wizard MSP Intro Example 4 of 4 5-13

14. 5-14 Project Uncertainty & Risk Management a, b certaintydenominator 99%6 95%3.3 90%2.6 Probabilistic / Stat Examples

15. 5-15 Probability of Completing a Path by Time D Z = The number of standard deviations D is from  D = Analyzed project or path completion time  = the sum of the expected path durations T e along a particular path being investigated  = path standard deviation  2 = path variance =NORMSDIST(D, , , TRUE), (left area) cumulative probability Probabilistic / Stat Examples

16. 5-16 Manual Network Probabilistic/Stochastic Example 99% ActivityambTeVar a1474.001.00 b2675.500.69 c3363.500.25 d6131412.001.78 e36126.502.25 f68169.002.78 g1564.500.69 PathsE-DurSDZProb b-c-e-g20.001.970.5169.40% a-d16.001.673.0099.87% a-e-g15.001.993.0299.87% b-f-g19.002.040.9883.64% 57.89% D21 Probabilistic / Stat Examples

17. 5-17 Project Uncertainty & Risk Management Example Chapter 5 (Table 5-4) a 0 10.67 b 10.67 22.83 c 22.83 35.17 d 22.83 28.83 e 22.83 37.17 f 35.17 44.5 g 37.67 47 h ActPredambTeVar a 8101610.671.78 ba11121412.170.25 cb7121912.334.00 db6666.000.00 eb10142014.332.78 fc,d610 9.330.44 gd5101710.334.00 he,g48117.831.36 0 10.6710.67 22.83 25.33 37.67 22.83 28.83 24.83 39.17 28.83 39.17 39.17 47 Probabilistic / Stat Examples

18. 5-18 Example Chapter 5 (Table 5-4) 99% ActPredambTeVar a 8101610.671.78 ba11121412.170.25 cb7121912.334.00 db6666.000.00 eb10142014.332.78 fc,d610 9.330.44 gd5101710.334.00 he,g48117.831.36 PathsE-DurSDZProb a-b-d-g-h47.002.721.1086.51% a-b-c-f44.502.542.1698.47% a-b-d-f38.171.577.53100.00% a-b-e-h45.002.482.0197.80% 83.31% D50 What is the probability the project critical path will complete within 50 days? What is the probability the project will complete within 50 days? Follow on question: There is a 95% probability we will complete the critical path in how many days? Probabilistic / Stat Examples

19. 5-19 Project Uncertainty & Risk Management Probabilistic / Stat Examples

20. 5-20 Simulation ab c d e f g h ActPredminlikelymax a 81016 ba111214 cb71219 db666 eb101420 fc,d610 gd5 17 he,g4811 PathsTime a-b-d-g-h a-b-c-f a-b-d-f a-b-e-h Potential Path Completion Times 1000 Trials Potential Project Completion Time = ???

21. 5-21 Simulation – Example Chapter 5 (Table 5-8) Project completion time for this particular step / trial

22. 5-22 Simulation – Example Chapter 5

23. 5-23 Simulation – Example Chapter 5 What is the probability the project will complete within 50 days?

24. 5-24 Simulation – Example Chapter 5 There is a 95% probability we complete the project in about 54 days or less.

25. DynaTech Equipment Corp. case (45 minutes)  Divide into small groups  Read case (5 minutes)  Assignment:(40 minutes)  List the immediate predecessors and WBS number for each activity  Draw project network diagram (lowest level)  Draw Gantt chart  Determine project completion time 5-25 Exercise