1. Integration of Ecosystem Services in Bosland Pieter Vangansbeke & Dries Landuyt Knowledge integration To be able to integrate all knowledge, gained during this research, a Bayesian belief network (BBN) model will be developed. The aim of this model is to simultaneously assess the impact of forest management on the delivery of all selected ecosystem services. This modelling approach was chosen as it facilitates combining different knowledge sources and different data types. This way, empirical data and expert knowledge, collected during this study, can be complemented with literature data to develop a model that is more generally applicable to study ecosystem service delivery of forests. Impact of increased harvest on distribution of 6 indicator species is studied We installed a large terrain experiment on 8 ha of pine stands in Bosland, where different machines were used to compare harvest strategies. The results showed that there is a large technical potential yield of round wood and wood chips from leftovers in these pine stands (8.4 fresh t/ha.y logs and 2.6 fresh t or 11 MWH/ha.y chips). However harvesting logs is much more beneficial than harvest of chips from leftovers. Total costs of harvest almost equals resale prices here. The economic potential of additional biomass of leftovers is thus limited, but new technologies, higher resale price and upscaling could increase this potential ². Harvest of leftovers also means an increased export of several nutrients (N, K, Ca, Mg). These additional exports could be significant despite the relatively small mass fraction, because these leftovers contain a higher concentration of many nutrients than stems. Increased export of nutrients could lead to a decreasing pH and soil fertility, which has a direct impact on future biomass production and biodiversity. We took extensive samples of different ecosystem compartments to estimate and model long term influence of current and additional harvest. The results will be available soon. Biodiversity Harvest of wood and biomass results in a spatiotemporal shift of open patches within a forest matrix. A smart selection of the locations for harvest could maintain or even extend the habitat for different species. With help of a local panel of experts we selected different indicator species for Bosland on a gradient from open to forested habitat. The current distribution of these species was mapped and habitat preferences were modelled. Based on the habitat preferences we were able to identify forest patches that could be harvested without harming the indicator species. The results are a useful addition to the current management plans. Cultural Service: recreation Bosland is a very important touristic attraction pool with more than 300 000 yearly overnight stays. The huge flow of tourists is an important ecosystem service and economic factor for the region. On the contrary this also has an impact on the forest, by disturbing local biodiversity. In this part of the research we map the current touristic pressure by interviewing the forest guards and by automated counts of the visitors on 6 strategic points by infrared counters. Afterwards the current distribution of indicator species is related to recreational flows to identify the impact on different species. Finally future visitor flows will be modelled to minimize disturbance without reducing the recreational value of the area. Intro Bosland is an area covering three municipalities in the Northwest of the Limburg province. The project is an innovative collaboration between the muni- cipalities, the agency for forest and nature management and two non-profit organisations and contains the biggest Flemish forest (6750 ha in total) 1. Bosland is an important area for wood production and recreation and a biodiversity hotspot. Recently, there is an increased interest to harvest woody biomass from early thinnings and clear-cuts in addition to classic roundwood harvest. These biomass harvests have a potential impact on the other ecosystem services and biodiversity in Bosland. In this research we quantify different ecosystem services and biodiversity and look at the potential impact of a management with an increased biomass harvest. Provisioning Service: Wood and Biomass productionRegulating Service: Soil fertility Mobile chipper emptying chip load in container. Small pine seedlings are dependent on fertile soils to grow. Bosland is an important area for recreation with 300 000 overnight stays per year PR BC General structure of a Bayesian belief network to model the ecosystem service delivery ‘cascade’. ³ Next to predicting the delivery of ecosystem services, the model will also be able to define management variables that affect ecosystem service delivery the most and will be able to define trade-offs among multiple services. To conclude There is a significant technical potential for (additional) biomass harvest in Bosland, however the economical potential is limited (but could increase in the future). The ecological potential for biomass harvest is currently being determined by investigating the relation with biodiversity and delivery of a regulating and cultural ecosystem service. Finally, the knowledge from these different research parts will be integrated with help of a Bayesian belief network model. This model will make it possible to evaluate impact of different management decisions related to biomass harvest on other ecosystem services and biodiversity. References 1 Vangansbeke, P., Gorissen, L., Nevens, F., and Verheyen, K. 2015. Towards co-ownership in forest management: Analysis of a pioneering case Bosland (Flanders, Belgium) through transition lenses. Forest Policy and Economics 50: 98-109 2 Vangansbeke, P., Osselaere, J., Gorissen, L., and Verheyen, K. 2014. Een vergelijking van verschillende oogstketens met bijkomende biomassaoogst in dennenopstanden. Bosrevue 47: 9-16. 3 Landuyt, D., Broekx, S., D'hondt, R., Engelen, G., Aertsens, J., and Goethals, P.L.M. 2013. A review of Bayesian belief networks in ecosystem service modelling. Environmental Modelling & Software 46: 1- 11. Pieter.Vangansbeke@VITO.BE and Dries.Landuyt@VITO.BE