1. WHY MIGHT THE WORLD FACE AN OVERPOPULATION PROBLEM? CHAPTER 2: POPULATION KEY ISSUE #4

2. OVERPOPULATION THEORIES THOMAS MALTHUS (1766-1834) Believed that pop. would grow much faster than food supply Predicted overcrowding/overpopulation Neo-Malthusians – believe in theory 1. Stage 2 countries are outpacing Malthus’s prediction Decreased CDR but no Ind. Revol. = bigger POOR pop. LCD’S = no wealth OR change in social customs 2. Malthus only consider pressure on food source Greater competition for other resources (e.g. energy) Food & energy resources put pressure on population 3. If nothing changes, war, famine, and/or disease is likely result

3. Malthus Critics Malthus’s belief that food (& other resources) are finite resources is flawed Large population can stimulate economy Marxists – socialism/communism Share resources globally = no problems Push by majorities (superpowers) to maintain “status quo” Maintain majority and minority populations Pushing population limits could accomplish this

4. Malthus Today 1. Prediction on population was too high (pessimistic) 2. Food production (globally) outpaces population needs (and Malthus’s predictions) 3. Focus was on food but now NON-renewable resources Have improved food production in MDC’s and many LDC’S Just starting to address rapidly increasing global energy needs

5. DECLINING BIRTH RATES Natural Increase Rate goes down for two reasons: 1. Decrease in CBR or 2. Increase in CDR Has been stabilized throughout much of the world Better Economy: lower CBR 1. More schools = better education 2. More jobs = more $, delayed family 3. Better healthcare = less need for bigger family Birth Control: 1. Very effective @ slowing CBR 2. Availability in LDC’s is dependent on outside sources 3. Religious, social, & political forces slow family planning efforts

6. WORLD HEALTH THREATS Basic Terms: Epidemic – rapid & widespread outbreak of a contagious disease at the local level Pandemic – disease that covers a large geographic region & affecting a large part of the global population Epidemiology – study of causes, distributions, & control of diseases in populations Epidemiological transitions – predictable patterns of causes of death following demographic transition

7. EPIDEMIOLOGICAL TRANSITIONS Stage 1 – epidemic & pandemic stage Poor hygiene and infrastructure = spread of disease End comes with ID of cause and method of spread Stage 3 – degenerative diseases & human- caused diseases Cardio-vascular & cancers Stage 2 – receding pandemic/epidemic Improved living conditions (often w/ econ. wealth) Change behaviors associated with spread Stage 4 – delayed degenerative diseases Improved technology keeps infected alive longer Stage 5 – reemergence of epidemic/pandemic 1.Evolution of diseases drug resistant strands 2.Poverty treatment issues “hanging around” 3.Better travel spreading is easier and faster