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1/15 Place Photo Here Biophysical Modeling Mark Rowe Ecosystem Dynamics University of Michigan, CILER.

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Presentation on theme: "1/15 Place Photo Here Biophysical Modeling Mark Rowe Ecosystem Dynamics University of Michigan, CILER."— Presentation transcript:

1 1/15 Place Photo Here Biophysical Modeling Mark Rowe Ecosystem Dynamics University of Michigan, CILER

2 2/15 EcoDyn | Biophysical Modeling Biophysical modeling integrates and synthesizes information from each branch at GLERL Biophysical Modeling Understand the dynamics of Great Lakes ecosystems Develop forecasts and applications Biophysical Modeling Understand the dynamics of Great Lakes ecosystems Develop forecasts and applications OSAT Observing Systems & Advanced Technology OSAT Observing Systems & Advanced Technology IPEMF Integrated Physical & Ecological Modeling and Forecasting IPEMF Integrated Physical & Ecological Modeling and Forecasting EcoDyn Ecosystem Dynamics EcoDyn Ecosystem Dynamics IS Information Services IS Information Services ObservationsPhysical modelsEcological monitoring & process studies Stakeholders & public Feedback influences research questions and approaches

3 3/15 EcoDyn | Biophysical Modeling Biophysical modeling research questions tied to NOAA’s strategic plan NOAA’s core goals Healthy Oceans: Fisheries, habitats, biodiversity, healthy and productive ecosystems Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Weather-Ready Nation Resilient Coastal Communities and Economies Research questions How will invasive mussels affect Great Lakes productivity? How will changing climate affect lake dynamics and the impact of invasive mussels on phytoplankton abundance? How can we use hydrodynamic forecasts to provide early warning of changing source water quality for public water systems due to HABs and hypoxia?

4 4/15 EcoDyn | Biophysical Modeling How will invasive mussels affect Great Lakes productivity? How will changing climate affect lake dynamics and the impact of invasive mussels on phytoplankton abundance?

5 5/15 EcoDyn | Biophysical Modeling Quagga mussel: A prolific invader that has dramatically altered freshwater systems worldwide M.D. Rowe, D.R. Obenour, T.F. Nalepa, H.A. Vanderploeg, F. Yousef, W.C. Kerfoot. 2015. Freshwater Biology, 60(11): 2270-85 Benthic surveysGeostatistical model Publicly-available spatial data set 1994-95 2000 2005 2010

6 6/15 EcoDyn | Biophysical Modeling Chlorophyll depletion in Lake Michigan is spatially associated with quagga mussel filter feeding intensity 1994-95 2000 2005 2010 April satellite chlorophyll Dreissenid filter feeding intensity M.D. Rowe, et al. Freshwater Biology, 60(11): 2270-85

7 6/15 EcoDyn | Biophysical Modeling Chlorophyll depletion in Lake Michigan is spatially associated with quagga mussel filter feeding intensity 1994-95 2000 2005 2010 April satellite chlorophyll Dreissenid filter feeding intensity M.D. Rowe, et al. Freshwater Biology, 60(11): 2270-85

8 7/15 EcoDyn | Biophysical Modeling Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM) M.D. Rowe, E.J. Anderson, J. Wang, H.A. Vanderploeg. 2015. J. Great Lakes Research, 41(S3):49-65 Great Lakes Coastal Forecasting System models are being replaced with FVCOM (Eric Anderson) Nearshore water quality is of current interest because of invasive mussel impacts and Great Lakes Water Quality Protocol of 2012 Unstructured grid provides new opportunities for nearshore biophysical modeling Conforms to shoreline morphology Provides increased resolution nearshore

9 8/15 EcoDyn | Biophysical Modeling Lake Michigan FVCOM was skill assessed for biophysical modeling Enlarged area M.D. Rowe, E.J. Anderson, J. Wang, H.A. Vanderploeg. 2015. J. Great Lakes Research, 41(S3):49-65 Interpolated meteorological forcing resulted in greater skill compared to North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) Currents Temperature Spatial extent and duration of summer and winter stratification

10 Cool spring Warm spring Mussels No mussels 9/15 EcoDyn | Biophysical Modeling Quagga mussels have greater impact on Lake Michigan spring bloom under warm spring climate scenario M.D. Rowe, E.J. Anderson, J. Wang, H.A. Vanderploeg. 2015. J. Great Lakes Research, 41(S3):49-65 Warm and cool climate meteorological scenarios Measured quagga mussel clearance rates 3-D hydrodynamic model (FVCOM) vertical mixing 1-D phytoplankton - quagga mussel model

11 Cool spring Warm spring Mussels No mussels 9/15 EcoDyn | Biophysical Modeling Quagga mussels have greater impact on Lake Michigan spring bloom under warm spring climate scenario M.D. Rowe, E.J. Anderson, J. Wang, H.A. Vanderploeg. 2015. J. Great Lakes Research, 41(S3):49-65 Warm and cool climate meteorological scenarios Measured quagga mussel clearance rates 3-D hydrodynamic model (FVCOM) vertical mixing 1-D phytoplankton - quagga mussel model

12 10/15 EcoDyn | Biophysical Modeling Separating the effects of quagga mussels and nutrient loads on Lake Michigan chlorophyll April 2010 Lake Michigan Chlorophyll concentration, μg/L Satellite | 3D Biophysical model Effect of phosphorus loads Effect of dreissenid mussels

13 April 2010 Lake Michigan Chlorophyll concentration, μg/L Satellite | 3D Biophysical model Effect of phosphorus loads Effect of dreissenid mussels 10/15 EcoDyn | Biophysical Modeling Separating the effects of quagga mussels and nutrient loads on Lake Michigan chlorophyll

14 April 2010 Lake Michigan Chlorophyll concentration, μg/L Satellite | 3D Biophysical model Effect of phosphorus loads Effect of dreissenid mussels 10/15 EcoDyn | Biophysical Modeling Separating the effects of quagga mussels and nutrient loads on Lake Michigan chlorophyll

15 April 2010 Lake Michigan Chlorophyll concentration, μg/L Satellite | 3D Biophysical model Effect of phosphorus loads Effect of dreissenid mussels 10/15 EcoDyn | Biophysical Modeling Separating the effects of quagga mussels and nutrient loads on Lake Michigan chlorophyll

16 April 2010 Lake Michigan Chlorophyll concentration, μg/L Satellite | 3D Biophysical model Effect of phosphorus loads Effect of dreissenid mussels 10/15 EcoDyn | Biophysical Modeling Separating the effects of quagga mussels and nutrient loads on Lake Michigan chlorophyll

17 April 2010 Lake Michigan Chlorophyll concentration, μg/L Satellite | 3D Biophysical model Effect of phosphorus loads Effect of dreissenid mussels 10/15 EcoDyn | Biophysical Modeling Separating the effects of quagga mussels and nutrient loads on Lake Michigan chlorophyll

18 11/15 EcoDyn | Biophysical Modeling How can we use hydrodynamic forecasts to provide early warning of changing source water quality for public water systems due to HABs and hypoxia?

19 EcoDyn | Harmful Algal Blooms An integrated approach to studying HABs

20 12/15 EcoDyn | Biophysical Modeling GLERL provides a nowcast/forecast of harmful algal bloom distribution in Lake Erie: HAB Tracker Initialize bloom location and intensity in a Lagrangian particle tracking model based on satellite remote sensing imagery Five-day forecast of bloom intensity and location based on 1.Forecast meteorology 2.Currents from a hydrodynamic model 3.Lagrangian particle tracking model Nowcast Five-day forecast

21 13/15 EcoDyn | Biophysical Modeling Improved model for short term forecast of Lake Erie HABs including vertical mixing of buoyant Microcystis 2D simulation3D simulationSatellite observed Model initialized Day 4 Day 5 M.D. Rowe, E.J. Anderson, T. T. Wynne, R. P. Stumpf, D. L. Fanslow, K. Kijanka, H. A. Vanderploeg, T. W. Davis. J. Geophysical Research, submitted

22 13/15 EcoDyn | Biophysical Modeling Improved model for short term forecast of Lake Erie HABs including vertical mixing of buoyant Microcystis 2D simulation3D simulationSatellite observed Model initialized Day 4 Day 5 M.D. Rowe, E.J. Anderson, T. T. Wynne, R. P. Stumpf, D. L. Fanslow, K. Kijanka, H. A. Vanderploeg, T. W. Davis. J. Geophysical Research, submitted

23 13/15 EcoDyn | Biophysical Modeling Improved model for short term forecast of Lake Erie HABs including vertical mixing of buoyant Microcystis 2D simulation3D simulationSatellite observed Model initialized Day 4 Day 5 M.D. Rowe, E.J. Anderson, T. T. Wynne, R. P. Stumpf, D. L. Fanslow, K. Kijanka, H. A. Vanderploeg, T. W. Davis. J. Geophysical Research, submitted

24 13/15 EcoDyn | Biophysical Modeling Improved model for short term forecast of Lake Erie HABs including vertical mixing of buoyant Microcystis 2D simulation3D simulationSatellite observed Model initialized Day 4 Day 5 M.D. Rowe, E.J. Anderson, T. T. Wynne, R. P. Stumpf, D. L. Fanslow, K. Kijanka, H. A. Vanderploeg, T. W. Davis. J. Geophysical Research, submitted

25 13/15 EcoDyn | Biophysical Modeling Improved model for short term forecast of Lake Erie HABs including vertical mixing of buoyant Microcystis 2D simulation3D simulationSatellite observed Model initialized Day 4 Day 5 M.D. Rowe, E.J. Anderson, T. T. Wynne, R. P. Stumpf, D. L. Fanslow, K. Kijanka, H. A. Vanderploeg, T. W. Davis. J. Geophysical Research, submitted

26 14/15 EcoDyn | Biophysical Modeling Future work: Proposed hypoxia forecast model for Lake Erie public water systems Cleveland early warning real-time buoy Bottom dissolved oxygen, mg L -1

27 14/15 EcoDyn | Biophysical Modeling Future work: Proposed hypoxia forecast model for Lake Erie public water systems Cleveland early warning real-time buoy Bottom dissolved oxygen, mg L -1

28 14/15 EcoDyn | Biophysical Modeling Future work: Proposed hypoxia forecast model for Lake Erie public water systems Cleveland early warning real-time buoy Bottom dissolved oxygen, mg L -1

29 14/15 EcoDyn | Biophysical Modeling Future work: Proposed hypoxia forecast model for Lake Erie public water systems Cleveland early warning real-time buoy Bottom dissolved oxygen, mg L -1

30 14/15 EcoDyn | Biophysical Modeling Future work: Proposed hypoxia forecast model for Lake Erie public water systems Cleveland early warning real-time buoy Bottom dissolved oxygen, mg L -1

31 14/15 EcoDyn | Biophysical Modeling Future work: Proposed hypoxia forecast model for Lake Erie public water systems Cleveland early warning real-time buoy Bottom dissolved oxygen, mg L -1

32 15/15 EcoDyn | Biophysical Modeling Future work: GLERL’s draft strategic plan Milestones related to biophysical modeling Improved representation of Microcystis buoyancy and growth in Lake Erie HAB Tracker model Customers: Public water systems, anglers, beach users, recreational boaters Develop a Lake Erie hypoxia model for nowcast/forecast and scenario-based simulations Customers: Public water systems, anglers, fisheries managers, USEPA (nutrient management) Develop nearshore-resolving water quality and lower food web models for Lakes Michigan and Erie Customers: USEPA (nutrient management), fisheries managers

33 15/15 EcoDyn | Biophysical Modeling Questions? Place Photo Here Quagga mussels in Lake Michigan: Steve Ruberg, NOAA GLERL

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