1. Western Governors’ Association – Expanded Biomass Resource Assessment & Supply Analysis Richard Nelson KSU rnelson@ksu.edu Peter Tittman and Nathan Parker UC Davis pwtittmann@ucdavis.edu ncparker@ucdavis.edu Bryan Jenkins UC Davis jenkins@ucdavis.edu Anneliese Schmidt Antares Group, Inc. aschmidt@antares.org

2. Objectives 1)To provide estimates of quantities of various biomass resources throughout the WGA region for use as feedstocks for liquid fuel (transportation) production in 2015 2)Use these estimated quantities to generate potential supply curves 3)Input quantities and supply curves to UC Davis GIS analysis

3. Project Background Project builds on the previous WGA-sponsored Clean and Diversified Energy Advisory Committee (CDEAC) work of 2005/2006 http://www.westgov.org/wga/initiatives/cdeac/biomass.htm Focus of that effort involved quantifying supply of biomass resources for electricity only

4. Resources Considered in WGA Region Agricultural crop residues Tallow and yellow grease Orchard and vineyard trimmings Forest thinnings Energy crops (SRWC and herbaceous) Corn for grain and select oilseeds (soy and canola)

5. Agricultural Crop Residues Corn stover and small-grain straws (wheat, barley, oats, rye) Employed methodology that estimated residue that must remain on the field surface such that NRCS-prescribed tolerable soil loss due to water or wind forces is not exceeded – will always provide a conservative estimate of residue removal!  Values estimated by individual soil type in each WGA county (US as well)  Tillage practice makes a considerable difference in residue removal Conventional, mulch, and no-till field management practices considered  Carbon and other soil tilth parameters presently not accounted for Supply curves were generated using edge-of-field costs from accepted engineering and economic parameters (ASAE & AAEA)

6. Continuous Corn Remaining and Removable Residue by Individual Soil Type

7. Barley Supply Curve

8. Beef Tallow and Pork Lard Considered a “point source” due to generation at slaughter facilities Quantities (million pounds per year) based on slaughter stats provided by Livestock Marketing Information Center, private companies, and applicable tallow and lard generation parameters per head slaughtered  ~ 220 & 22 million gallons per year of tallow and lard-based biodiesel  Price ranges varied from $0.11 to $0.30 per pound FOB PNW to Gulf of Mexico

9. Waste Greases (Yellow and Brown) Quantities based on urban population statistics and methodology developed by Wiltsee (1999) Population Centers of >100,000  9 pounds yellow grease/capita  13 pounds brown grease/capita ~ 50 MGY (yellow grease) & ~ 130 MGY total Brown grease not considered as a serious source due to high FFA content Individual city plant capacities ranged from 0.14 to >12 MGY

10. Orchard & Vineyard Trimmings Trimmings from apples, peaches, grapes, pecans, plums, walnuts, almonds, etc. Production numbers derived from 2002 Census of Ag data Use of residue data (tons per acres per year) used by Jenkins, UC Davis in a previous analysis Willamette Valley

11. Forest Biomass supply comparison (million oven dry tons per year for 12 western states) WGA 07CDEACBTSR Source AFire hazard thinning on timberland 5.67.2 Source BLogging residue 4.75.3 Source CPinyon Juniper woodland (other forest) thinning 7.6 Source D1 General thin on private timberland - except spruce-fir and lodgepole 2.7 Sources A to D1TOTAL 20.5 Source D2 General thin on private land - only spruce-fir and lodgepole 0.3 estimate Source EThin public land in OR and WA West of Cascades Source F Thin on public land to mitigate insect and disease risk Other forest land thinning 9.2 General thinning on all forest land 10.8 Mill residue 0.3 TOTAL 22.025.6 Source G Hemicellulose at existing pulpmills from current pulpwood 0.3 estimate BTSR = Biomass as feedstock for a bioenergy and bioproducts industry: the technical feasibility of a billion-ton annual supply

12. Short Rotation Woody Crops Analysis provided by USFS indicates SRWC in the West would probably be too expensive for energy due to competing uses (e.g., pulp & paper) and the fact that an extensive ‘wait’ exists between establishment and harvest with no return on investment

13. Herbaceous Energy Crops Data not currently known with any degree of certainty on large-scale production(10-50 million gallon per year) in the West so prediction of quantities in 2015 is difficult Approach: Use a process of elimination for geographic areas based on 20” or less of rainfall, land capability class III – VIII soil types, and slopes less than 15% Use USDA native grass database that has data (dry tons per acre) for “unmanaged” stands and determine economics based on these quantities as well as a ‘doubling’ of the production that could potentially occur if the stands were “managed” (e.g., N application, H/P application, etc.)

14. Native Grass Mixtures – “unmanaged” Switchgrass Big Bluestem

15. Corn, Soy, & Canola Idea is to project potential acreages, prices, and production of corn, soy, and canola in 2015 Obtain corn acreages and production by county from NASS (1997-2006) (“running average”) Use FAPRI projections for yield and acreage increases and/or decreases and apply to each NASS county Agriculture, energy, and environmental legislation can wreck these numbers

16. Environmental Analysis (Biomass Feedstocks) Biomass Feedstock Water Use (gallons/ton) CO 2 from Irrigation Carbon/GHG (tons CO 2 /acre) Criteria Pollutants Agricultural Resources Residues Allocation by SGR 0.028 Negligible Grains Allocation by SGR Negligible Herbaceous Energy Crops n/a 0.035 Negligible Oilseed Crops Allocation by SGR Negligible Forest Resources Forest Thinnings XX 27 pounds CO 2 /dry ton X Processing By-Products Animal Fats (beef tallow) ????