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Published bySteven Robbins Modified over 8 years ago
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Voltas Limited …..set to beat the heat
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Business Model
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Revenue Mix – FY08-12
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Investment Arguments EMPS Projects – Key growth driver We expect the segment to grow by 16.5% and 18% in FY10E and FY11E respectively; at a CAGR of 31% (FY09-12E) Key Drivers Order book of Rs.50bn in the EMPS segment; having 18 months’ earnings visibility Exposure to the Middle East countries like Qatar, Abu Dhabi bodes well for the growth Comfortable oil price of US$60 per barrel for these countries; infra spend likely to increase Opportunities in the metro rail and airport projects and healthcare industry in India;
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Unitary Cooling Segment We expect the revenues to grow by 10% and 25% in FY10E and FY11E respectively Key Drivers Launch of more cost effective and energy efficient AC models- 70% of the revenue of the segment Volumes to increase by 25% Lower penetration in the air conditioner industry in India Voltas expects to increase market share to 20% by FY11 from 16.5% currently
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Other key points Engineering products and services- Sluggish growth expected in FY10; recovery from 2011 Acquisition of Rohini Electricals will give an opportunity to bid for electrical works for industries such as steel, metals and power
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Income Statement FY2007FY2008FY2009AFY2010PFY2011PFY2012P Sales252673202943259493616172775399 OPBDIT190126563189377248345773 Depreciation156167210290343410 PBT242430733717411053996658 PAT201720762545275436174461 Sales Growth %29%27%35%14%25%22% Op. Profit Growth %70%40%20%18%28%19% PAT Growth %174%3%21%10%31%23%
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Ratios RATIOSFY2007FY2008FY2009PFY2010PFY2011PFY2012P Current Ratio1.201.12 1.13 Inventory turnover6.15.66.05.76.16.3 Debtors (sale days)565455 Asset Turnover172022212223 RONW(%)48%36%32%27% 26% ROCE(%)32%38%36%34% 31% OPM (%)7.38.37.37.67.87.6 NPM(%)8.06.55.85.65.9
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Recommendation- Buy Rs.122 Voltas trades at 15xFY10E and 11xFY11E; at 40% discount to the historical P/E of 20-25 We recommend Buy with a target price of Rs.165 based on EPS of Rs.11 in FY11E
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