1. Following the Illinois High School Class of 2002 Jennifer B. Presley Karen J. DeAngelis Illinois Education Research Council Yuqin Gong, University of Illinois June 11, 2004. Naperville, Illinois

2. Purpose and Approach of the Project To assess the equity of access to, and success in, postsecondary education for Illinois’ current high school graduates. To do this, the IERC is following the high school class of 2002 into postsecondary education using ACT and National Student Clearinghouse data. We plan to follow the cohort for 6 years.

3. Context for the Project Illinois ranks 25 th in high-school graduation rate (71%) Illinois ranks 20 th in the continuation rate of its high-school graduates (60%) Illinois ranks 31 st in the percent of continuing high school graduates enrolling in state (76.5%) –13 th in the percent enrolling in an in-state public 2-year institution –47 th in the percent enrolling in an in-state public 4-year institution –5 th in the percent enrolling in an in-state private institution

4. Background Characteristics  race/ethnicity  gender  parents’ income Academic Preparation - 4-year college readiness indicator  math indicator  Core curriculum Location  region  urbanicity Educational Plans -declared intention to enroll  certainty of college major or occupation  degree plans Other Factors -- extracurricular activities -- peer influence (% of peers in high school that enrolled in college, type of college and selectivity) College Choice Model 1 College / no college Model 2 2-year / 4-year college Model 3 4-year college by selectivity

10. The Results for Year 1 Fall 2002 and Spring 2003 Enrollment in Postsecondary Education Institutions Nationwide Model 1 - Going to College

11. College Going Rate for Academic Year 2002-2003

12.  = lowest  = highest

13.  = lowest  = highest

14.  = lowest  = highest

15.  = lowest  = highest

16.  = lowest  = highest

17. Model 2 Type of Institution Attended for Not Ready and Most Ready College-Going Students

20. Model 3 Selectivity of 4-Year Institution for Not-Ready and Most-Ready College-Going Students

23. Location Vs Northeast (not CPS) CPS NS 1.06 Northwest1.12 West Central1.09 East Central NS1.03 Southwest1.24 Southeast1.38 Vs Urban Rural NS1.06 Suburban NS1.03 Tow n NS1.03 Comparative Odds of Going to College in Fall 2002/Spring 2003 Background Female vs male 1.36 Vs WhiteVs Low Income Black 1.26Lower Middle 1.19 Native Am0.55 Upper Middle 1.47 Latino0.86 High 1.36 Asian1.32 Other/Multi0.85 Education Plans and Environment Declared intention to enroll 0.90 Sure about major1.17 Sure about occupation 0.89 Each additional activity1.02 10 unit increase in % grads in school continuing to college1.32 Academic Preparation Core 1.31 Vs Not 4-year readyVs Algebra 2 Marginally R 1.42 Algebra 1 0.51 Somewhat R 2.02Geometry0.78 More Ready 2.59Trig/> Alg 21.26 Most Ready 3.19Calculus1.20 Model fit: Deviance/DF=1.12 N=100,338

24. Background Female vs male 1.07 Vs WhiteVs Low Income Black2.84Lower Middle NS 1.03 Native Am0.65 Upper Middle1.26 Latino 1.25 High2.01 Asian NS1.07 Other/Multi NS 0.99 Academic Preparation Core 1.31 Vs Not 4-year readyVs Algebra 2 Marginally R 1.66 Algebra 10.48 Somewhat R 2.96 Geometry0.67 More Ready 5.56 Trig/> Alg21.49 Most Ready 14.30 Calculus1.77 Location Vs Northeast (not CPS) CPS 2.37 Northwest0.76 West Central NS0.93 East Central0.89 Southwest NS0.96 Southeast0.44 Vs Urban Rural 0.87 Suburban1.02 Town1.11 Comparative Odds of Going to 4-Year versus 2-Year College for Those Going to College in Fall 2002/Spring 2003 Education Plans and Environment Plan to earn BA NS1.03 Each additional activity1.71 10 unit increase in % grads in school continuing to 4-year college 1.42 Model fit: Deviation/DF=0.97 N=64,539

25. Comparative Odds of Going to Selective 4-Year College for Those Going to 4-Year Colleges in Fall 2002/Spring 2003 Model fit: Deviance/DF = 1.04 N=36,401 Background Female vs male NS 0.99 Vs WhiteVs Low Income Black1.93Lower Middle0.99 Native AmNS 0.97 Upper Middle1.01 Latino3.15 High1.25 Asian4.05 Other/Multi1.81 Education Plans and Environment Plan Grad Degree1.49 Each Additional Activity1.04 10 unit increase in % grads in school continuing to selective college1.42 Location Vs Northeast (not CPS) CPS 1.47 Northwest0.96 West Central0.90 East Central0.88 Southwest0.49 Southeast0.57 Vs Urban Rural0.81 Suburban0.93 Town0.86 Academic Preparation Core 1.08 Vs Not 4-year readyVs Algebra 2 Marginally R NS 0.96 Algebra 1 NS 0.92 Somewhat R 2.24 Geometry0.68 More Ready 3.80Trig/> Alg 21.43 Most Ready 12.77Calculus2.37

26. Summary of Findings

27. IERC – Following the Illinois High School Class of 2002 - Summary of Findings

28. Preliminary Implications Large percentages of Illinois’ high school graduates are going to college under-prepared for success. Community colleges (and 4-year institutions, especially in Chicago) provide a ‘second chance’ for these students. Additional tracking will enable us to measure persistence of these students, and provide evidence on whether these students remain in college. The different distribution of types of colleges by region in Illinois influences enrollment patterns of those continuing into higher education. Strong institutions (both 2-year and 4-year) are needed throughout the state to maximize the potential of Illinois’ ‘human capital’. Again, additional tracking will help us to assess whether there are positive or negative persistence consequences depending on where students first enroll Latinos and low income students are less likely to enroll. Additional efforts are needed to help these students - especially those that are academically ready for college, continue into college.