1. Naseer Ahmad Gillani FIE

4. Threats Glaciers Depletion Water Pollution Siltation In Mega dams Increasing Water Deficit Water Sharing Issues Climate Change

5. 5 LAND USE IN PAKISTAN ARABIAN SEA Chenab River DISPUTED TERRITORY INDUS RIVER KABUL RIVER Ravi River Jhelum River Sutlej River LEGEND MOUNTAINS DESERTS AREA UNDER IRRIGATION AREA THAT CAN BE BROUGHT UNDER IRRIGATION SOURCE: AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS OF PAKISTAN 2007-08 20.1 ADDITIONAL AREA THAT CAN BE BROUGHT UNDER IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE 47.0 AREA UNDER IRRIGATION (BY ALL SOURCES) 54.5 CULTIVATED AREA (IRRIGATED + BARANI) 74.6AREA SUITABLE FOR AGRICULTURE 196.7GEOGRAPHICAL AREA AREA (MA)CATEGORY Indus River Sindh3.4 MA Punjab3.8 MA KPK3.0 MA Baloch.9.9 MA TOTAL 20.1 MA (Barren land available if water can be conserved)

6. 6 WATER POTENTIAL & REQUIREMENTS WATER POTENTIAL & REQUIREMENTS  Water Availability (Avg 1976-2009) 138.70 MAF  Water Requirement for the Country with reference to Accord 1991 (117 MAF) Province Water Accord Allocation Water Availability or used {Avg (1976 -2009)} Shortage / Excess KharifRabiTotalKharifRabiTotalValue%age Punjab37.0718.8755.9434.1618.6652.82-3.12-5.6 Sindh33.9414.8248.7628.9513.8442.79-5.97-12.2 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 3.48 +1.80 5.28 2.30 + 1.20 3.50 5.78 +3.00 (Civil Canal) 8.78 4.092.51 6.60 - 3.00 3.60 -2.18-24.8 Balochistan2.851.023.871.230.802.03-1.84-47.5 Total77.3437.01 117.35 68.4235.81 104.23 -13.12-11.18 Average Water Availability 2000 – 2010 105 MAF (Currently Pakistan is suffering from water shortage cycle)

7. 7 RESERVOIRORIGINALPRESENT LOSS DUE TO SEDIMENTATION TARBELA 9.69 (1976) 6.77 2.92 30% MANGLA 5.34 (1968) 4.54 0.80 15% CHASHMA 0.72 (1971) 0.26 0.46 63% TOTAL15.7511.57 4.18 27% RESERVOIR CAPACITIES (MAF) (Nearly a fourth of the Reservoirs silted; need to construct Diamer Basha Dam to augment lost storage)

8. 8 NEW STORAGES CURRENTLY BEING DEVELOPED UNDER IMPLEMENTATION/READY FOR EXECUTION (MAF) MANGLA DAM RAISING – AJK (Substantially Completed; to be test filled in 2010) 2.88 SATPARA DAM (Completion in Dec-2010) 0.05 GOMAL ZAM – FATA (Completion in Dec-2010) 0.89 KURRAM TANGI – FATA (To be started 2011) 0.90 DIAMER-BHASHA – GB/KPK (To be started in 2011) 6.40 SMALL/MEDIUM DAMS (Phase-I&II)4.90 Total:13.62

9.  Stand alone  Integrated  State  Public  Society  local

10.  Conflict  Disturbance  Law & Order  Institutional Collapse  Revolution  War

11.  Scarcity  Prestige  Independence  Sovereignty  Economics  Development  Poverty  Hunger  Survival

12.  MDGs  PRSP  life

13.  Equity  Sovereignty  sustainability

14.  water for All

16.  97% saline water - 3% fresh water. 2% fresh water caped in glaciers and icebergs. Out of remaining 1%, 20% cannot be captured – inaccessible.  Remaining fresh water globally available is only 0.8% and is finite.  This 0.8% amounts to 43,659 BCM. In case it is uniformly distributed over the globe, it is in abundance. 43,659 BCM ÷ 6.5 billion people = 6,716 m 3 /person  Problem:Variability in space and time – rain forest on one hand and desert on other.

17. South East Asia Total water availability is 6,698 BCM i.e. 15.3% of the world water resources against 8.6% of world population (516 million). Per capita water availability is 12,980 m 3. Regional Perspective

18. South West Asia 90% of population lives under water stress conditions – uses 10% more water than fresh water available. Massive desalinization. Regional Perspective cont…

19. North East Asia Total water availability is 3,351 BCM i.e. 7.7% of world water against 25% of world population. Per capita water availability is 2,221 m 3. Country wise water availability, Mongolia 138,400 m 3 /capita; Japan 3,125 m 3 /capita; R. Korea 2,389 m 3 /capita and China 2,152 m 3 /capita. Regional Perspective cont…

20. South Asia Total water availability 3,900 BCM/year i.e. only 9% of world water against 25% of world population. Per capita water availability is 2,600 m 3 /person. India has 1/6 th of world population and 1/25 th water resources i.e. 1,746 BCM with average of 1,740 m 3 /person but the variability is extensive. In Brahmaputra – Barak Basin per capita water availability is 13,400 m 3 to about only 300 m 3 in the Sabarmati Basin in western part of India. Regional Perspective cont…

21. Average rainfall Pakistan is one of the world’s most arid countries – over 75% of it receives rainfall less than 250 mm annually and 20% of it less than 125 mm. The population and economy are heavily dependent on an annual influx into Indus River System of about 154.88 MAF of water mostly derived from snow and glacier melt. Pakistan Perspective

22. 22 WATER AVAILABILITY IN PAKISTAN WATER AVAILABILITY IN PAKISTAN Surface Water 154.88 MAF Surface Water 154.88 MAF Ground Water: Ground Water: –Total Area39.5 Million Acres –Saline24.7 Million Acres –Fresh Water14.8 Million Acres –Total Quantity Available59 MAF –Present Extraction50 MAF –Balance 9 MAF (economic limit)

23. 23 SEASON-WISE & ANNUAL CANAL HEAD WITHDRAWALS 1962-63 TO 2002-03 SEASON PRE- MANGLA (1962-67) AVERAGE POST- MANGLA (1967-76) AVERAGE POST TARBELA (1976-2003) AVERAGE ADDITIONAL WATER AFTER MANGLA & TARBELA KHARIF62.3865.0267.775.398.6% RABI28.030.7836.808.8031.4% TOTAL90.3895.80104.5714.1915.7% (MAF)

24. 24 CANAL WATER DIVERSION Vs POPULATION GROWTH CANAL WATER DIVERSION Vs POPULATION GROWTH 98.6 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1951 1961 1972 1981 1992 2002 2012 2020 2025 PER CAPITA AVAILABILITY (M) 3 POPULATION ( MILLIONS) CANAL DIVERSIONS (MAF) POPULATION ( MILLIONS) YEARS 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 AFTER TARBELA INDEPENDENCE AFTER MANGLA 104 106 PER CAPITA AVAILABILITY 1700 m 3 1992 1350 m3 2002 1000 m3 2012 885 m3 2020 5650 m3 (1951) WATER SHORT COUNTRY 216.8 178 138 POPULATION GROWTH 225 550 m3 2025 BEFORE TREATY AFTER TREATY

25. 25 water used for Irrigation water used for Irrigation  India93%  Pakistan90%  China87%  Egypt85%  Italy59%  Japan50% Korea46% Korea46% USA42% USA42% Germany20% Germany20% France15% France15% UK3% UK3%

26. 26 1,300,000 liters/person/year ( i.e. 3356 liters/day which is 70 times more than 50 liter/person/day for domestic purposes) Water requirement to produce one loaf- 550 liters (10 times more than 50/liters/person/day) Water required to produce 100 grams of beef-7,000 liters (140 times more than 50/liters/person/day)

27. 27 A High Risk Water Environment A High Risk Water Environment Pakistan’s dependence on single river system is highly vulnerable and has little flexibility as compared to most of the countries enjoyed by virtue of multiple river basins and diversity of water resources. If the water/sediment/salt system of the Indus Basin goes badly wrong, that’s it – and unfortunately we are very close to it.

28. 28 No Additional Water No Additional Water There is no additional water to be injected into the system and there is no feasible intervention which would enable Pakistan to mobilize appreciable more water that it now uses. Pakistan uses more than 90% of water for irrigation. Non-agricultural water uses are going to increase manifold in future.

29. 29 SEASONAL CARRY OVER KHARIF TO RABI (INCREASE OF 6 MAF) (DECREASE OF 3 MAF) (INCREASE OF 13 MAF)

30. 30 Indus Basin Irrigation System Annual Salt inflow/outflow Indus Basin Irrigation System Annual Salt inflow/outflow  Total brought into the System33.0 M. Tons  Total Salt deposited in Indus Basin Irrigation System24.0 M. Tons  Wash out of System9.0 M. Tons  Salt deposited in Punjab13.6 M. Tons  Salt deposited in Sindh10.4 M. Tons

31. 31 Productivity Per Unit of Water Productivity Per Unit of Water  Canada8.72 kg/ m 3  USA1.56 kg/ m 3  China0.82 kg/ m 3  India0.39 kg/ m 3  Pakistan0.13 kg/ m 3

32. 32 Productivity Per Unit of Land Productivity Per Unit of Land  France7.60 T/ha  Egypt5.99 T/ha  Saudi Arabia5.36 T/ha  Punjab (India)4.80 T/ha  Punjab (Pak)2.30 T/ha  Pakistan (Average)2.24 T/ha

33. 33 GDP Contribution Per M 3 of Water GDP Contribution Per M 3 of Water  World (Average)8.60 US$  Developed Countries30-40 US$  Malaysia10 US$  Pakistan0.34 US$

34. 34 Per Capita Storage Per Capita Storage  America 6,150 m 3 /person  Australia5,000 m 3 /person  Pakistan132 m 3 /person

35. 35 Carry over Capacity Carry over Capacity  Egypt (Aswan)1,000 days (Niles)  America900 days (Colorado)  Australia600 days  South Africa500 days (Orange River)  India120 to 220 days  Pakistan30 days

36.  Upto April 2008, 1,017 MAF of water has gone to the sea unutilized over the last 30 years which is equivalent to 10 years of canal withdrawals. In monitory terms, the value of unutilized water is US$ 149 billion after deducting 300 MAF required for environmental purposes.  For better water management, 40% of total water availability is required for storage, Pakistan’s storage capacity is only about 7% of total available water.

37.  Climate Change  Indus Waters Treaty  Transboundary pollution  Pakistan should demand minimum environmental flows for eastern rivers to protect biodiversity.  Kabul River contributes 21 MAF  Pakistan needs both software and hardware solutions for future water management. Points for Urgent Attention

38.  GOAL 1: Promote water as a key part of sustainable national development.  GOAL 2: Address critical development challenges.  GOAL 3: Reinforce knowledge sharing and communications.  GOAL 4: Build a more effective participation

42. 42 Surface Storages in India Surface Storages in India  Total Completed Large Dams4,291 Nos.  Presently under Construction Dams 676 Nos.  Total Existing Storage Capacity 323 BCM  Additional Storage required by 2050 180 BCM  Additional Dams to be constructed by the year 20502,500 Nos.  Total Hydro Power Developed13,000 MW  Total Potential Available84,000 MW  China has constructed 84,000 dams since 1949 out of which 24,000 are large dams.