1. FORESTRY MITIGATION PROJECTS & SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Prof. N. H. Ravindranath Indian Institute of Science

2. Global Climate Change  It is an important global environmental problem  CO 2 concentration has increased from 280 ppmv (pre-ind rev-1750) to 368 ppmv in 2000  Projected to reach 540-970 ppmv by 2100  Global mean temp is projected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8 deg C by 2100  Projected climate change is likely to have adverse impacts on natural ecosystems such as forests and human systems such as food production  Thus, climate change issue has attracted global attention

3. Forests & Climate Change  Forests play a critical role in global carbon cycle  Forests contribute about 20% of global CO 2 emissions  Forest ecosystems are vulnerable to projected climate change  Likely to have adverse impacts on forest biodiversity and biomass production  Thus need to assess impacts and develop adaptation strategies  Forests provide a large mitigation opportunity to stabilize GHG concentration in the atmosphere along with significant co-benefits  Mitigation through forest sector has been a contentious issue in climate negotiations

4. Mitigation Options Mitigation: Includes all activities aimed at reducing GHG emissions and/or removal of CO 2 from atmosphere, to stabilize CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere  Mitigation in the forest sector; includes carbon sink conservation, C sink expansion & fossil fuel substitution by bioenergy I. Forest Carbon Conservation Management Measures  Banning deforestation or forest conversion to non-forest uses  Formation of protected areas, conversion of forests to national parks and sanctuaries  Adoption of sustainable logging practices  Adoption of forest fire control techniques  Implementation of fuelwood conservation and substitution Fuelwood efficient stoves, efficient charcoal kilns and biogas Fuelwood efficient stoves, efficient charcoal kilns and biogas  Recycling of forest products

5. Mitigation Options… II. Carbon Storage Management  Natural regeneration  Reforestation in degraded forest lands  Afforestation in non-forest lands  Carbon pools in durable wood products III. Substitution Management  Bioenergy substituting fossil fuel electricity  Sustainable wood products substituting fossil fuel based building materials (cement, steel etc.)

6. Global Mitigation Potential of Forest Sector Activities Latitudinal Zone Measure Carbon Sequestered GtC Cost (US$/tC) Total Cost (10 9 US$) HighForestation2.4 8 (3-27) 17 MidForestationAgroforestry11.80.7 6 (1-29) 5603 LowForestationAgroforestryRegeneration Slowing deforestation 16.46.311.5-28.710.8-20.8 7 (3-26) 5 (2-12) 2 (1-2) 2 (0.5-15) 972744-97 TOTAL60-873.7-4.6(1-29)250-300

7. Indian Situation  Area under forests:  Forest Conversion/loss:  Afforestation  Area brought under JFM (largely regeneration):  Wasteland estimates:  Potential for agroforestry: (Cultivable waste to long fallow)  63.7 Mha  About 200,000 ha  1.4 Mha annually  66 to > 100 Mha  20 Mha

8. Indian Situation…  Effective Forest Conservation Act and other legislations  Biomass demands growing leading to;  Shortages of fuelwood, pulp, timber  Large imports  Increased livestock grazing pressure on forestlands  Large external funding to afforestation activities  State support to afforestation is declining in many states

9. Why Explore Mitigation Opportunity in Forest Sector?  Need to conserve forests and reduce pressure on forests  For non-GHG related reasons such as biodiversity, watershed, livelihoods biodiversity, watershed, livelihoods  Need to afforest/reforest degraded lands to prevent land degradation  Need to grow biomass to meet growing demand  Need to develop community institutions and enhance capacity to protect and manage forests  Need to work towards stabilization of GHG concentration in the atmosphere  CURRENT EFFORTS INADEQUATE  TECHNICAL, INSTITUTIONAL, FINANCIAL BARRIERS

10. Advantages of Implementing Forest Mitigation Projects; Afforestation and Reforestation  Introduce innovative technical interventions into A&R programs to  Increase biomass productivity  Conserve biodiversity  Enhance the rate of spread of A&R  Reclaim degraded lands  Build institutions at village to forest division to state level  Adopt innovative institutional interventions to strengthen community institutions  Enhance financial flows to communities

11. Potential Contentious Issues  Losing low-cost mitigation opportunities?  Global demands for forest carbon credits (CERs/RMUs) limited  Insignificant loss of carbon credit potential  Communities may lose access to land & biomass  Project should be fully compatible with JFM/other regulations  Community needs can be built in to project  Non-permanence, leakage and uncertainty in measurements of carbon stock changes  Techniques, accounting rules and models available  SBSTA & IPCC are developing guidelines

12. Mitigation Potential  Estimate technical, economic and market potential  Demonstrate environmental additionality  Estimating the carbon stock changes in baseline and mitigation scenario  Estimating incremental or additional C seq.  Need for policies, programs and measures to overcome barriers to A&R and enhance stakeholder involvement  Need for additional investment to overcome the barriers  Need for methods, techniques and models to address issues of non-permanence, leakage, uncertainty etc.

13. Mitigation Potential Through a Sustainable Forest Management Approach for India  Potential Scenarios  Technical potential scenario  Sustainable forestry scenario  Commercial forestry scenario  Potential Mitigation Activities  Afforestation – short rotation  Afforestation – long rotation  Forest regeneration (reforestation)  Forest Protection  Bioenergy

14. Baseline Scenario  Current rate of forest loss projected to continue  Rates of afforestation projected to decline  Area under crops stabilized (at ~ 150 Mha)  Current (10 th plan) rate of investment projected to continue  Biomass demands are not systematically addressed in afforestation programs

15. Sustainable Forestry Scenario 1.Estimate fuelwood, industrial wood and sawn wood demands for 2015 2.Assess land use pattern and surplus land available for forestry activities 3.Identify forestry activities for meeting biomass demands eg. Short-rotation plantation for ind.wood 4.Allocate forestry activities to compatible land categories; SR-plantations for private lands 5.Meet current biomass demands (for 2000) from baseline activities; existing forests, plantations, farms 6.Meet incremental (2015 minus 2000) biomass demands from proposed forestry activities

16. Method of Estimation of Carbon Benefits & Costs  COMAP model developed by F-7 (Tropical Forest -7) Network  Inputs; Baseline & project scenario  Area afforested-yearly, Soil C, Biomass growth rate, Rotation period, Life of product, investment cost, annual cost, monitoring cost, value of products (timber, fuelwood, NTFPs)  Outputs; Baseline and Mitigation scenario  Annual and cumulative carbon stock changes (tC/ha)  Incremental carbon stock  Total C stock per ha  Cost-Effectiveness;  Investment cost; Rs/tC or Rs/ha  Life cycle cost; Rs/tC or Rs/ha  Net present value of returns; Rs/tC

17. Mitigation Potential and Cost of Forestry Sector Activities

18. Mitigation Potential

19. Incremental Mitigation Potential (10 6 tC) Sustainable Forestry Scenario Commercial Forestry Scenario Mitigation 2012-Baseline 2000 23778 Mitigation 2012-Baseline 1990 281122

20. Investment Required (Rs. Million) Forestry activities Area (Mha) Mitigation Scenario (increment over baseline) 2000-20122000-2030 Short rotation plantation 3.633226540635 Long-rotation plantation 6.664459556115 Regeneration11.1033754320 Forest protection 8.4935554500 TOTAL29.8883790105570

21. Data, Methods, Models are critical- Baseline & Project Activities  Monitoring & estimating AGB stock, annual AGB growth rate AGB stock, annual AGB growth rate Soil carbon stock, annual / periodic changes Soil carbon stock, annual / periodic changes  Developing ratio of AGB to BGB  Monitoring extraction rates and effects on carbon stock  Monitoring area changes, crown cover changes and linking to biomass stock changes  Estimating production of wood and NTFPs & values  Models for projecting biomass and soil carbon stock  Models & methods for incorporating barriers for estimating mitigation potential  Models for estimating costs and benefits

22. Addressing Contentious Issues Guidelines, Methods, Models  NON-PERMANENCE/REVERSIBILITY OF CARBON SEQUESTERED; Temporary nature of CO 2 removal by sinks from LUCF activities  Estimating C stocks annually  LEAKAGE; Net change of anthropogenic emissions by sources of GHGs and removal by sinks, which occurs outside the project boundary, and which is measurable and attributable to the CDM project activity  Estimating C stock changes within & outside project boundary  ADDITIONALITY; A project activity is additional if anthropogenic GHG emissions are reduced below those that would have occurred in the absence of the project activity [OR ] CO 2 removal by sinks that are higher than that would have occurred in the absence of a project activity  - Estimate C-stock changes under baseline and mitigation Sce

23. UNCERTAINTY IN ESTIMATES Guidelines and Methods to Reduce Measuring, estimating and monitoring carbon stock changes Measuring, estimating and monitoring carbon stock changes Estimating non-GHG environmental impacts Estimating non-GHG environmental impacts  Biodiversity, Ground water, soil conser. Estimating socio-economic impacts Estimating socio-economic impacts  Access to grass, fuelwood & NTFPs  Changes in employment & income

24. Issues…  BASELINE DEVELOPMENT Reliable estimates of C stock changes in the proposed project area in the absence of project activity Reliable estimates of C stock changes in the proposed project area in the absence of project activity  METHODS TO ADDRESS CONTENTIOUS ISSUES ARE AVAILABLE  Simplification  Reduce costs & increase accuracy  Create access to potential users  ACCOUNTING RULES FOR ADDRESSING CONTENTIOUS ISSUES  SBSTA & IPCC are developing guidelines & methods  TRANSACTION COSTS; for baseline dev. Monitoring and project administration - Minimum  BUILDING INSTITUTIONS & CAPACITY TO ENHANCE PARTICIPATION OF LOCAL INSTITUTIONS  critical