1. State of the Nation Kathryn Rudd, Chair, Natspec

3. You are masters at managing progress… Keeping your quality… Alongside evolving your organisations Managing expectations Dealing with difficult situations

4. Some of your achievements….

5. So what’s next….for the economy? UK economy by 2020 1.5% smaller than last forecast Target still to reach a £10 bil surplus by 2020 £3.5 bil public spending cuts £2.0 bil higher employer pension contributions 2015 spending review still sets the course for government Flexible unringfenced budgets for mayors with devolution deals

7. So what’s next…for Education? Schools Every school to become an academy by 2022 National school funding formula in place by 2019 Sugar drink tax (c£500 mil) Further Education Institutes of Technology Area Reviews Apprenticeships Skills Devolution Employers Specialist / high needs = local & generic Vocational / mainstream = specialist, regional & national

8. So what’s next…for funding? EFA Changes Paper on technical education routes (possibly April) Firmer information on national school formula New high needs funding distribution in 2017-18 16-18 Maths review (Prof Adrian Smith) SFA Changes - Simplify and localise in 2016-17 2016-17 is last year before the levy/voucher system starts Adult Education Budget (AEB) merges budgets Devo deals promise freedom to move funds in 2017 National procurement of non-college AEB provision

10. The Skills System… Apprenticeships Increased no’s of lower level 2 and 3 apprenticeships 3M target Levy - intro April 2017, 0.5% of payroll – over £3m wagebill Deals with skills (the AEB) Sheffield City Region. Tees Valley North East, Liverpool City Region West Midlands Deals without skills London, Greater Manchester, West Yorkshire, Cornwall New deals West of England, East Anglia Greater Lincolnshire + Area Reviews…..

11. Funding in the future…. School grants (£32 bil/yr EFA to Academies direct in 2019) Levy funded And SME co-funded Apprenticeships (£2 bil/yr by 2018 16-18 grants (£6 bil via EFA) HE (and FE) Student Loans (£20 bil/yr by 2020) Private & International Fees High Needs (£5 bil/yr via councils) Adult Education (£1.5 bil, via SFA & Mayors) High cost HE (£1 bil via HEFCE) Other Govt contracts (eg MoD, ESF)

12. So what’s next…for social care? 2% council tax – gap of £2.8bn to £3.5bn by 2020 (Kings Fund) Shift from central government to locally raised revenue. No significant extra cash from government until 2018. 2020 public spending on social care = less than 1% of GDP Further reduction in numbers of people getting help (down by at least 25% over the last five years) “2016 will confirm social care’s trajectory towards a system in which responsibility for care sits with individuals and families, with the role of state retrenching to a very basic safety net, only for the very poorest with the highest needs”

14. What does this mean for you in the short term? As employers…. Apprenticeship levy? Pensions End of TP? Living wage Recruitment In your locality… Reduced role of LAs – high needs and transport More UTCs – “free schools” Area Reviews / Skills Devolution For your delivery… Apprenticeships (intern / trainee) Policies on careers, routes & skills Ofsted - CIF Reactive – crisis driven Competition Public spending pressure Recruitment

15. The future… the unthinkable will happen, often. David will often defeat Goliath. some basic things will never change. demographics affects destiny. things move in cycles.. herds don't think. pioneers get slaughtered, but settlers prosper.

16. How we will live….? (5 – 10 years) Paul Saffo Driverless cars Subscriptions to auto service Subscribe to access rather than pay money for possessions

17. How we will love….? (10 – 20 years) Divorce to decrease In love – but don’t live together People dipping in and out of assisted living facilities Pepper Schwartz

18. How we will heal….? (10 – 20 years) Genomes sequenced to access personalised treatments Measure most health parameters at home via smartphones 3D printed affordable exosceletons & prosthetic devices Bertalan Mesko

19. How we will be powered…? (50 years) 50 yrs = 100% clean energy economy 2030 will cut transportation oil use in half, in half again a decade later Michael Brune

20. How we will age…..? (within 20 years) 4,000 yrs to get from abacus to iPad. 20 yrs to get as far ahead of iPad as it is ahead of abacus. Therefore can solve all fundamentally technical problems – disease, poverty, hunger, energy, scarcity Is mortality a technical problem to solve? Byron Reese

21. We need to position ourselves well And alongside all our short term issues… ….we can’t forget the long term… “It is in your moments of decision that your destiny is shaped”. Tony Robbins

22. What do you need from your membership organisation? What is our mission? Voice of specialist colleges or promoting value of specialism and expertise in all settings. Where should we be prioritising? Campaigning, raising quality, changing perceptions of ISCs…? How can you help the whole sector? “The whole is greater than the sum of its parts.”