1. Global Energy Realities your mother should know... Scott L. Montgomery Jackson School of International Studies ENV100 Nov. 12 2010 Scott L. Montgomery Jackson School of International Studies ENV100 Nov. 12 2010

2. this lecture Global Energy Demand End of Peak Oil? Energy Sources, Energy Poverty, & Power Brief Side Trip to China What Energy Policy Can Do Challenges

3. ? Global energy demand - who wants it? IEA: WEO 2010

4. What is the world using? ~80% ~1.7% oil gas coal nuclear hydro IEA: Global Statistics 2010

5. Oil: It doesn’t stand still - why?

6. End of peak oil? We are not running out...yet Recent discoveries in offshore areas have been very significant ~65% offshore Source: Offshore, IHS, May 1, 2010 http://www.offshore-mag.com/index/article-display/7580142997/articles/offshore/volume- 70/issue-50/international-e_p/global-overview_of.html?dcmp=ENL.OSWAR The Growing Gap

7. Is the age of cheap oil really over? before first oil crisis

8. Is the age of cheap oil really over? Not if we look at fuel cost as a % of disposable income U.S. can afford $90/bbl; maybe even $100/bbl Is the age of cheap oil really over? Not if we look at fuel cost as a % of disposable income U.S. can afford $90/bbl; maybe even $100/bbl before first oil crisis As a % of income, U.S. paying at $92/bbl (see previous slide) what it was before first oil crisis As a % of income, U.S. paying at $92/bbl (see previous slide) what it was before first oil crisis

9. Evolution of Energy Sources What has happened over time? Source: EIA

10. A clear pattern? “+HydrogenFusionOceanic Space Solar Energy transitions take time and, over last 200 years, have not meant giving up previous sources (not entirely) By 2050, we may still be using oil and even coal (though at reduced rates, hopefully) Energy transitions take time and, over last 200 years, have not meant giving up previous sources (not entirely) By 2050, we may still be using oil and even coal (though at reduced rates, hopefully)

11. energy poverty - is it real? Map shows human footprint/population density Source: Kareiva, P., et al. (2007) Domesticated Nature: Shaping Landscapes and Ecosystems for Human Welfare. Science 316, 1866

12. energy poverty - is it real? (compare with previous slide) Source: Kareiva, P., et al. (2007) Domesticated Nature: Shaping Landscapes and Ecosystems for Human Welfare. Science 316, 1866

13. People without Power Source: IEA, WEO 2009

14. One Third of Humanity Lives without Modern Energy

16. Power generation has been, and will be, the most rapidly growing form of energy use ExxonMobil

17. Electricity to 2030: If major changes don’t happen... ExxonMobil

18. Coal in China Source: EIA, “China” Country Analysis Brief 2010

19. land of renewables? 12th Year Plan (2011 - 2020) Hydropower - 300 GW by 2015 Wind - 90 GW Nuclear - 30 GW Solar - 5 GW Large hydro dams are China’s main renewable focus...13 more planned or under construction on Yangtze (3 Gorges already complete)

20. land of renewables? 12th Year Plan (2011 - 2020) Hydropower - 300 GW by 2015 Wind - 90 GW Nuclear - 30 GW Solar - 5 GW Graphs: Energy Research Institute

21. land of renewables? Yangtze, longest river in China

22. Source: IEA, WEO 2010

23. gapminder energy use vs. time

24. Policy matters! Europe raised fuel taxes, used other measures to control energy demand after 1970s oil crises; energy consumption has been flat there and even declined; not in u.s. (demand left to free market, which began to affect energy use in late 2000s, during recent oil crisis) or in china Policy matters! Europe raised fuel taxes, used other measures to control energy demand after 1970s oil crises; energy consumption has been flat there and even declined; not in u.s. (demand left to free market, which began to affect energy use in late 2000s, during recent oil crisis) or in china China U.S. China India U.K. Germany

25. Quick summary Future energy use = developing nations The death of civilization has been exaggerated... Energy sources have diversified over time; since mid-20th c. they’re focus is electricity Energy poverty is real; 10 9s people remain without modern energy services China is central to the global energy future Policy is crucial!

26. challenges Energy Transitions take time, but Climate Change demands we act quickly: how to reconcile? There is a global need for investment - in new supply, innovation to reduce impacts, improve efficiency, advance existing alternatives, create new options; diversity of sources & options needed Also needed is cooperation among nations - to advance new pathways so that developing world won’t follow in historical steps of West (and now China) West needs to abandon myths about energy (‘energy independence,’ evil Big Oil, peak oil Apocalypse, nuclear fears, renewable energy as savior & essence of sustainability)

27. We’re all in this together... Thank you! Questions? Thank you! Questions?