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What have been the main trends in oil consumption and production over the last 30 years?
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Why has there been an increase in oil prices? 1.Increase in demand – growth in demand from China, India and USA – emerging economies such as India and China subsidise oil which encourages consumption. 2.Insufficient investment for exploration and development over last 2 decades – low prices did not provide enough incentive for investment. 3.Problems in Middle East – Iraq – terrorist attacks and slow pace of reconstruction after the war. 4.Governments stocking up on oil to guard against disruptions to supply. 5.Impact of hurricanes. 6.Limited US refining capacity – US refineries are ageing. 7.Lack of spare oil production capacity – Saudi Arabia has maintained significant amount of spare capacity to prevent global supply problems – this spare capacity declined to 20-year low.
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USA and China USA consumes ¼ global oil but has only 2.5% of proven reserves. Of the 20 million barrels a day consumed in the US, 25% is used for transportation. Oil efficiency of US vehicles is at a 20 year low – a result of complacency in the period of low energy prices. US high decency on oil leaves it vulnerable to supply shocks. – what does this mean? How could you decrease the demand for oil in the US?
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Oil Imports
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Why is the prediction of peak oil production so important? Why is the prediction of when peak oil production will occur vary so widely?
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Swap answers with neighbour. Go through the mark scheme and give it a mark. Then explain why you gave it this mark.
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1) Describe the pattern of nuclear power production in Figure 2.10 (4) Descriptions might identify: The dominance of Europe/Eurasia and North America in nuclear power production The growing importance of Asia/Pacific The tiny contribution of Africa and South and Central America The steady worldwide growth in production since 1994 Level Mark Descriptor L2 3–4 marks Candidates give accurate descriptions of the main changes and refer to the data in Figure 2.10. L1 0–2 marks Candidates make no specific reference to data in Figure 2.10.Coverage of the main trends is limited and/or inaccurate. Effective descriptions need to identify the general patterns and trends, and any obvious anomalies that don’t follow the trends. The general patterns/trends and anomalies should then be supported with specific data from Figure 2.10. For example, the overall trend is slow but steady growth, with an increase in global nuclear power production from 500 mtoe in 1994 to around 630 mtoe in 2006.
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Coal
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Coal production and consumption With the exception of South America, all continents have substantial coal reserves. In 2006, coal supplied ¼ of the world’s energy. Although this production has fallen steadily over the past 20 years, world production has actually increased by just over 60% between 1986 and 2006.
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Leading coal producers China Since 1981 its output has increased fourfold. Today, China accounts for 46% of the total world hard coal production. Global coal reserves, estimated at 910 billion tonnes in 2006, should at current rates of production last for another 150 years.
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Coal trade Unlike other fossil fuels, only a small fraction of world produced coal enters international trade. Most is consumed domestically in the country of production. Coal is less transportable than oil because : 1.Contains larger proportion of waste. 2.Lower calorific vale than oil and gas. 3.Is a solid and less transportable than liquids and gases. 4.Less versatile than oil, having little vale for the transport industry,
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Factors influencing coal supply Physical (Geology) Coal seams that are thick and close to the surface are cheap to exploit. Shallow seams can be extracted by open cast mining. High carbon level coal is higher quality. Physical (Geography) Some locations isolated – Amazonia – climatic conditions may also be restrictive. E.g. permafrost and extreme arid environments. Access to markets and coast for exports often critical. Economic Production depends on demand and cost of coal (geological conditions, labour, transport etc). Political Most for domestic markets. Promotion of coal often for reasons of energy security. Some governments may discourage use of coal for environmental reasons and impose carbon taxes on coal burning industries (e.g. in California).
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Homework - Coal facts and figures. 1.Why does USA generate electricity through coal? 2.Which countries are the main producers and consumers of coal? 3.Why is the coal the most polluting source of energy? 4.How can coal burning power stations reduce pollutants? 5.What is meant by the term coal gasification? What influence will it have?
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