1. Industrial Development and the Environment A systems’ view Dr. Andrius Plepys, Lund University Nov, 2009

2. Industrial development at the speed of light

3. 1938 - 1945 ENIAC 1997 30 tonnes 200,000 Watt 7.5 x 5.3 mm 1.5 gram 45 Watt

4. 5 kg0.2 kg0.3 kg 100 years 10 years 2 years Fundamental and radical innovations Plepys 2004

5. Growth in manufacturing productivity Source: Gruebler (1998)

6. Nuclear Hydropower Gas Oil (raw) Oil (processed) Coal Wood Global primary energy use (in Gtoe) Source: Nakicenovic et al. (1996)

7. The planet Two interracting systems Environment Technospere Limited carrying capacity

8. Response – reactive strategies Raw material, energy Waste, water discharges Air emissions “Dilution as solution” © Plepys 2008

9. Response – reactive strategies Raw material, energy Wastewater treatment Mechanical Chemical Biological Smoke scrubbers Venturi filters Precipitators Etc. Dual expenses! © Plepys 2008 “End-of-pipe approach”

10. Preventitative strategies Raw material, energy Waste, water discharges Air emissions Pollution prevention pays

11. Raw material, energy Waste, water discharges Air emissions Ok Integrated approach Ok Problem solved?

12. Kretsloppsdelegationen rapport 1997:14, Fig. 21:3 Total emissions of Cr (VI) in Sweden Chromium emissions, tons

13. Cr (VI) from manufacturing sources Kretsloppsdelegationen rapport 1997:14, Fig. 21:3 Chromium emissions, tons

14. Kretsloppsdelegationen rapport 1997:14, Fig. 21:3 What is the misterious contributor? Chromium emissions, tons

15. What are the environmental impacts from products? Where are they decided? By whom?

16. Miniaturisation and functional integration www.apple.com

17. Innovation of one product Apple Inc.

18. Innovation of add-on products Plepys 2007

19. e.g. household waste spray containers oil rests cleaning agents thinners irritating chemicals photo developers paints, glue, lacquer pesticides pharmacouticals batteries

20. © Plepys 2008

21. Consumer choices

22. Which product is better for environment? © Plepys 2008

23. Systems’ perspective

24. Product lifecycle system

25. What should we know? Total lifecycle impact? Where are the largest the impacts? What causes the impacts? What are the alternatives? Improve here? Or maybe here? Lifecycle of a product

26. InputsOutputs Product’s lifecycle ComponentsManufacturing Distribution Use End-of-Life Management Raw materials What is a lifecycle system?

27. Globalisation challenges

28. The triangle of globalisation Consumption Resources Production Raw materials Goods

30. Fuel energy 100% Radiation 20% Exhaust 35% Cooling water 20% Deadweight 17% Personal mobility 2% Bearings 6% Fussler (1996) CAR INEFFICIENCY Air resistance 10.5% Rolling resistance 4.2% Inefficient driving 4.3 Fussler (1996)

31. Efficiency vs. economic growth Source: Gruebler (1998) Factor 10 Factor 1,000

32. (courtesy Dr. Oksana Mont, IIIEE) Consumption problematic; efficiency and rebounds

33. Consumption expansion World consumption measured in total expenditure: 1 $ 1.5 trillion 1950 $ 4 trillion 1975 $ 12 trillion 2000 $ 25 trillion © Dr. Oksana Mont, IIIEE/LU Sweden

34. Supersize Everything! 7-Eleven soda 1980: 0.90 kg 2000: 1.78 kg McDonald’s French fries 1980: 110 g 2000: 200 g Supermarkets 1972: 2,200 m 2 2000: 4,100 m 2 Wired, December 2002, 65 from: Dr. Oksana Mont, IIIEE/LU, Sweden

35. Wired, December 2002, 65 Cruise lines 1985: 46,052 tons 2002: 88,500 tons Refrigerator width inside 1980: 53 cm 2002: 78 cm NFL players: average weight 1974: 115 kg 2000: 146 kg Supersize Everything! from: Dr. Oksana Mont, IIIEE/LU, Sweden

36. Per-capita CO 2 emissions (1995) (tons / year) US20.5 Canada14.8 Germany10.3 Japan 9.0 South Africa 7.4 Mexico 3.9 China 2.7 Brazil 1.6 from: Dr. Oksana Mont, IIIEE/LU, Sweden

37. Luxury vs. needs Source: Worldwatch.org 2009 Makeup$18 billion Reproductive health care for all women $12 billion Pet food EU+USA $17 billion Elimination of hunger and malnutrition $19 billion Perfumes$15 billionUniversal literacy$5 billion Ocean cruises$14 billion Clean drinking water for all $10 billion Ice cream in Europe $11 billionImmunizing every child $1.3 billion

38. Thresholds of happiness in different countries Source: (Max-Neef 1995). ISEW - Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare)

39. Unsustainable future with sustainable technologies Source: Philip Peck, IIIEE

40. Consumption

41. Aftershave € 35 Basics for a new home – € 6.50

42. Food for 2 months

43. 150 litres of water

44. Sunglasses – € 24 Access to water – € 8