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Industrial Development and the Environment A systems’ view Dr. Andrius Plepys, Lund University Nov, 2009
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Industrial development at the speed of light
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1938 - 1945 ENIAC 1997 30 tonnes 200,000 Watt 7.5 x 5.3 mm 1.5 gram 45 Watt
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5 kg0.2 kg0.3 kg 100 years 10 years 2 years Fundamental and radical innovations Plepys 2004
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Growth in manufacturing productivity Source: Gruebler (1998)
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Nuclear Hydropower Gas Oil (raw) Oil (processed) Coal Wood Global primary energy use (in Gtoe) Source: Nakicenovic et al. (1996)
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The planet Two interracting systems Environment Technospere Limited carrying capacity
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Response – reactive strategies Raw material, energy Waste, water discharges Air emissions “Dilution as solution” © Plepys 2008
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Response – reactive strategies Raw material, energy Wastewater treatment Mechanical Chemical Biological Smoke scrubbers Venturi filters Precipitators Etc. Dual expenses! © Plepys 2008 “End-of-pipe approach”
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Preventitative strategies Raw material, energy Waste, water discharges Air emissions Pollution prevention pays
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Raw material, energy Waste, water discharges Air emissions Ok Integrated approach Ok Problem solved?
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Kretsloppsdelegationen rapport 1997:14, Fig. 21:3 Total emissions of Cr (VI) in Sweden Chromium emissions, tons
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Cr (VI) from manufacturing sources Kretsloppsdelegationen rapport 1997:14, Fig. 21:3 Chromium emissions, tons
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Kretsloppsdelegationen rapport 1997:14, Fig. 21:3 What is the misterious contributor? Chromium emissions, tons
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What are the environmental impacts from products? Where are they decided? By whom?
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Miniaturisation and functional integration www.apple.com
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Innovation of one product Apple Inc.
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Innovation of add-on products Plepys 2007
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e.g. household waste spray containers oil rests cleaning agents thinners irritating chemicals photo developers paints, glue, lacquer pesticides pharmacouticals batteries
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© Plepys 2008
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Consumer choices
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Which product is better for environment? © Plepys 2008
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Systems’ perspective
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Product lifecycle system
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What should we know? Total lifecycle impact? Where are the largest the impacts? What causes the impacts? What are the alternatives? Improve here? Or maybe here? Lifecycle of a product
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InputsOutputs Product’s lifecycle ComponentsManufacturing Distribution Use End-of-Life Management Raw materials What is a lifecycle system?
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Globalisation challenges
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The triangle of globalisation Consumption Resources Production Raw materials Goods
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Fuel energy 100% Radiation 20% Exhaust 35% Cooling water 20% Deadweight 17% Personal mobility 2% Bearings 6% Fussler (1996) CAR INEFFICIENCY Air resistance 10.5% Rolling resistance 4.2% Inefficient driving 4.3 Fussler (1996)
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Efficiency vs. economic growth Source: Gruebler (1998) Factor 10 Factor 1,000
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(courtesy Dr. Oksana Mont, IIIEE) Consumption problematic; efficiency and rebounds
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Consumption expansion World consumption measured in total expenditure: 1 $ 1.5 trillion 1950 $ 4 trillion 1975 $ 12 trillion 2000 $ 25 trillion © Dr. Oksana Mont, IIIEE/LU Sweden
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Supersize Everything! 7-Eleven soda 1980: 0.90 kg 2000: 1.78 kg McDonald’s French fries 1980: 110 g 2000: 200 g Supermarkets 1972: 2,200 m 2 2000: 4,100 m 2 Wired, December 2002, 65 from: Dr. Oksana Mont, IIIEE/LU, Sweden
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Wired, December 2002, 65 Cruise lines 1985: 46,052 tons 2002: 88,500 tons Refrigerator width inside 1980: 53 cm 2002: 78 cm NFL players: average weight 1974: 115 kg 2000: 146 kg Supersize Everything! from: Dr. Oksana Mont, IIIEE/LU, Sweden
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Per-capita CO 2 emissions (1995) (tons / year) US20.5 Canada14.8 Germany10.3 Japan 9.0 South Africa 7.4 Mexico 3.9 China 2.7 Brazil 1.6 from: Dr. Oksana Mont, IIIEE/LU, Sweden
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Luxury vs. needs Source: Worldwatch.org 2009 Makeup$18 billion Reproductive health care for all women $12 billion Pet food EU+USA $17 billion Elimination of hunger and malnutrition $19 billion Perfumes$15 billionUniversal literacy$5 billion Ocean cruises$14 billion Clean drinking water for all $10 billion Ice cream in Europe $11 billionImmunizing every child $1.3 billion
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Thresholds of happiness in different countries Source: (Max-Neef 1995). ISEW - Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare)
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Unsustainable future with sustainable technologies Source: Philip Peck, IIIEE
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Consumption
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Aftershave € 35 Basics for a new home – € 6.50
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Food for 2 months
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150 litres of water
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Sunglasses – € 24 Access to water – € 8
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