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1 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Tropical vegetation dynamics in simulations of radiatively-forced climate change Richard Betts Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office PROMISE 2nd Annual Meeting, Paris, 13th-15th May 2002
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2 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Hadley Centre Coupled Climate-Carbon Cycle Model
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3 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research TRIFFID-GCM coupling Photosynthesis, respiration, transpiration (30 minutes) Litter (1 day) Competition (10 days) LAI, albedo, roughness (1 day) Broadleaf Tree C3 Grass Shrub Soil
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4 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Coverage of vegetation types, control simulation Fraction of gridbox
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5 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Veg cover: simulated - observed (IGBP-DIS) Fraction of gridbox
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6 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Surface temperature changes (K) relative to 2000 30-year means Prescribed CO 2 (IS92a)
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7 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Precipitation changes relative to 2000 mm day -1 30-year means Prescribed CO 2 (IS92a) 2020 2050 2080
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8 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Changes in tree cover Gridbox fraction Prescribed CO 2 (IS92a)
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9 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Broadleaf tree cover in central Africa
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10 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Broadleaf tree Net Primary Productivity(NPP) in central Africa
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11 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Broadleaf tree cover in Indonesia
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12 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Broadleaf tree NPP in Indonesia
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13 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Changes in tree cover Gridbox fraction Prescribed CO 2 (IS92a)
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14 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Change in annual mean precipitation (mm day -1 ) relative to control
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15 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Change in BL tree cover (%) relative to control
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16 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Annual mean precip in Manaus gridbox
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17 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Broadleaf tree cover in Manaus gridbox
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18 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Broadleaf tree NPP in Manaus gridbox NPP (kg C m -2 s -1 )
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19 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Broadleaf tree NPP in Manaus gridbox
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20 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Broadleaf tree cover in Manaus gridbox
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21 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Precipitation changes due to biogeophysical feedbacks mm day -1 30-year means Prescribed CO 2 (IS92a)
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22 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Atmospheric CO 2 concentrations — due to business-as-usual emissions (IPCC IS92a) 1000 800 600 400 200 with climate-carbon feedback without climate-carbon feedback 19001950200020502100 CO 2 concentrations (ppmv)
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23 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Temperature rise over land due to IPCC business-as-usual (IS92a) emissions with CO 2 -climate feedbacks without CO 2 -climate feedbacks 1850 –2 0 2 4 6 8 19001950200020502100 Temperature rise (°C)
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24 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Further precipitation changes with CO 2 -climate feedback mm day -1 30-year means
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25 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Further changes in tree cover with CO 2 -climate feedback Gridbox fraction
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26 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Amazon die-back: is this what happens? CO2 Radiative forcing El Nino-like SST pattern Amazon precip Soil moisture NPP Emissions Net C uptake Forest cover Stomatal opening Evapotranspiration Something else!
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27 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Conclusions Tropical forests may respond to both radiatively-forced climate change and CO 2 fertilisation CO 2 fertilisation may offset climate effects in some regions –are other GHGs “worse” than CO 2 ?? Simulated Amazon drying/dieback is a complex, coupled phenomenon Global climate sensitivity may depends on regional climate and ecosystem changes
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28 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
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