1. After a slow start, the UK is finally enjoying steady growth… ●But income per person has only just surpassed its level in 2007

2. …against a tricky global backdrop Ghost cities in China - Queues for the ATM in Greece

3. What does this mean for the UK? Good news - lower commodity prices

4. …Bad news - trade and manufacturing haven’t contributed much to the recovery Honourable exception!

5. Feedback to surveys & our Trades Association Council positive in consumer-facing sectors

6. Signs of life in real wages an encouraging sign for sustainability of consumer spending growth ●Sustainable wage growth crucial now that unemployment is almost back to pre-crisis levels

7. But cheaper energy windfall spent on one-off purchases, while food sector recovery muted…

8. … and competition is intense – our surveys suggest price wars have further to go

9. Main risks to the consumer outlook – productivity/wages and interest rates to rise…

10. Key business concern: tightening labour market and skills shortages

11. Summary: households and businesses to drive UK growth – main risks are global Slower economic growth in China weighs on other EMs & world growth Another downturn in Eurozone fortunes Uncertainty ahead of EU referendum weighs on investment Productivity recovery fades Strong recovery in productivity growth supports earnings growth