1. Andrew Dilnot Statistics and the Commission on Funding of Care and Support

2. Sources of evidence Official statistics –ONS/GAD population projections –FRS and GHS –Census –Administrative data (DWP) –NHS Information Centre Academic research –PSSRU (Kent, LSE, Manchester) –CARESIM (UEA) –BHPS/ELSA Public opinion research Deliberative research

3. 3 Conclusions and recommendations of the Commission on Funding of Care and Support The number of older people is increasing Growth in the number of older people in England 2010-2030

4. Percentage of UK population aged 85+ (1901-2011)

5. 5 Conclusions and recommendations of the Commission on Funding of Care and Support Social care is one element of state support Public spending on older people in England 2010/11

6. 6 Conclusions and recommendations of the Commission on Funding of Care and Support Funding has not kept up with demand Expenditure and demand: older people’s social care (2009/10 prices)

7. 7 Conclusions and recommendations of the Commission on Funding of Care and Support Care costs are uncertain and can be very high Expected future lifetime cost of care for people aged 65 in 2009/10

8. 8 Conclusions and recommendations of the Commission on Funding of Care and Support Some people can lose most of their assets Maximum possible asset depletion for people in residential care (150k cost) 5%25%Median75%95% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% £0k£50k£100k£150k£200k£250k£300k£350k£400k£450k£500k Assets on going into care Maximum possible asset depletion Percentiles of housing wealth

9. 9 Conclusions and recommendations of the Commission on Funding of Care and Support A cap removes the risk of very high costs Expected lifetime costs for people going into care in 2010/11, by percentile £0k £50k £100k £150k £200k 0%20%40%60%80%100%

10. 10 Conclusions and recommendations of the Commission on Funding of Care and Support And offers significant asset protection Maximum possible asset depletion for people with £150k residential care costs

11. 11 Conclusions and recommendations of the Commission on Funding of Care and Support But we also need to reform the means test The effect of extending the means test on the amount of support people receive

12. 12 Conclusions and recommendations of the Commission on Funding of Care and Support But we also need to reform the means test The effect of extending the means test on the amount of support people receive

13. 13 Conclusions and recommendations of the Commission on Funding of Care and Support Extending the means test helps the poorest Maximum possible asset depletion for people with £150k residential care costs

14. 14 Conclusions and recommendations of the Commission on Funding of Care and Support Extending the means test helps the poorest Maximum possible asset depletion for people with £150k residential care costs