1. 35 Resilience 2014 Conference May 2014 Jon Kurtz Mercy Corps, Director of Research and Learning Resilience: How will we know? And what do we know so far?

2. Content 1.Current and desired states 2.Promising approaches 3.Our evidence to date

3. Mercy Corps’ Resilience Research and Learning Agenda What contributes to strengthening resilience?: For who? Agro-pastoralists in African drylands; urban poor in SE Asia To what? Drought, conflict, floods How? Markets development, peacebuilding, governance

4. Current Thinking = Everything contributes equally Central part of USAID’s resilience framework

5. HH Survey Findings Desired state = Reliable Predictors Population: Urban dwellers in South Asia Primary Shock/Stress: Floods Major Determinants of Resilience: Population: Pastoralists in the Sahel Primary Shock/Stress: Severe drought

6. Some Caution Cynefin framework, by David Snowden

7. Characteristic approaches Oxfam’s Key Dimensions of Resilience FAO’s Resilience Index IFRC’s Characteristics

8. V CharacteristicsIndicators Diverse livelihood opportunities # of target farmers implementing at least two improved agricultural technologies Organized and informed # of target CBOs with <10 points increase in the Food Security Community Capacity Index score Healthy% of targeted HHs increased Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS) by at least one point Myanmar Resilience for Food Security Program Evaluation

9. Analysis of determinants Socio demographic attributes - Sex of head of HH - # of HH members - Average HH education - Housing conditions - Wealth status Shocks - Type experienced: Drought, conflict - Exposure: Length, extent, magnitude Enabling Environment - Freedom of movement - Security - Access to natural resources - Quality of natural resources - Access to basic services - Social support - Livelihood diversity - Governance / Institutional performance - Women’s role in HH decisions - Preparedness Resilience-related outcomes - Expenditures - Assets loss (due to shock) - Household dietary diversity - Distressful coping strategies - Adaptive strategies Southern Somalia study conceptual framework

10. Southern Somalia resilience study Predictors of less distressful coping

11. Post shock impact evaluations Conceptual framework for Ethiopia peacebuilding and resilience study

12. HH Survey Findings Factors associated with use of distressful coping mechanisms Ethiopia peacebuilding and resilience research

13. Post project evaluation in Niger

14. Yes, but…