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Published byEvangeline Blair Modified over 8 years ago
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The Probability Calculus
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Divide the number of positive outcomes by the total number of (equally possible) outcomes Computations are independent of any facts about the process that generates the outcome. As long as you know all the possible outcomes and they’re equally probable, you’re good.
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Divide the number of observed positive outcomes by the number of total observed outcomes.
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Assign a number between in the range of 0 to 1 that corresponds to your degree of belief in a proposition The probability is a subjective degree of belief
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The Probability Calculus is a way of computing the probabilities of compound arrangements of events once each individual event has been given a probability.
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It doesn’t matter which of the described interpretations you use; the probability calculus will work regardless.
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Preliminary rules: 1.The probability that an event will necessarily happen is 1. 2.The probability of an event that necessarily cannot happen is 0.
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Six additional rules
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The probability of A and B occurring is equal to the probability of A times the probability of B happening given A.
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The probability calculus can be used in conjunction with the relative frequency theory and the subjectivist theory: ◦ An example of this is the mortality tables used by insurance companies. ◦ The probability calculus can also be used to evaluate odds of such events as two teams meeting in the Super Bowl.
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