1. The one certainty in our lives (actually there are 2, death and taxes!) Part 3 Trends and patterns in mortality

2. Measuring Mortality - Reminders Death Rate The problem with using CDR (Crude Death Rates) is it is affected by the age structure of the country. If all other things are equal CDR goes up as the average age of the population goes up (thus it is affected by population structure). Thus when we compare CDRs for Italy (11) and Ethiopia (12) they are very similar even though all things are definitely not equal between these countries.

3. Measuring Mortality Life Expectancy It is an AVERAGE; at birth, the average number of years a person is expected to live Age Sex Specific Death Rate The death rate for a particular age group within the population (male/female) Most common… INFANT MORTALITY (First year of life) CHILD MORTALITY (First 5 years)

4. Mortality trends - MEDCs MEDCs saw a decrease during the late industrial revolution – as they moved through stages 2 and 3 of the Demographic Transition Model. Why? Improved sanitation, water, housing, reduction in pollution, improved medical care. 1870 life expectancy Manchester - 29 years Sheffield – 33 years

9. Mortality trends - LEDCs The main decrease in LEDCs occurred during the second half of twentieth century due to improved medical care particularly immunisation programmes such TB and Polio, successful eradication “Roll back Malaria” programmes in Asia and South America. Improved sanitation and food also contributed LEDC reduction in mortality often resulted from the transfer of knowledge and medicines from MEDCs.

13. Spatial Patterns Infant Mortality – we can see a familiar pattern; why does it exist?

14. And Life Expectancy

15. Mortality Patterns Explained

16. “malaria remains the biggest cause of death for children under five in Africa.” Jong-Wook Lee, 2006

17. Cholera

18. Explaining life expectancy patterns A high incidence of infectious diseases such as HIV/Aids, cholera, malaria and typhoid will result in low life expectancy and high infant and child mortality rates. Poor sanitation and water supply. Poor health care systems mean that societies are not in a position to combat and fight against diseases that are often manageable and preventable. High levels of malnutrition contribute significantly and make it difficult for people to fight disease.

19. Population Change Summary Population change varies over time and through space. High birth rates and falling death rates in LEDCs led to the global population explosion from about 1950. Current rates of population growth are slowing down as fertility rates decline globally. However, population momentum will mean we see continued growth with the world population peaking at around 9 billion in 2050. Although significant global declines in mortality have been achieved in recent years life expectancy in many areas of sub-Saharan Africa is still very low as a result of the prevalence of infectious diseases (especially HIV/Aids).

20. Key Terms Crude Birth Rate (CBR) – the number of live births in a year per 1000 people Total Fertility Rate – the average number of children born to a women during her lifetime Crude Death Rate (CDR) – the number of deaths per 1000 of the population in a year Life Expectancy – the average number of years a person can expect to live Age-specific death rate such as infant and child mortality