1. © Crown copyright Met Office UKCA: Met Office Perspective Fiona O’Connor ACITES Networking Meeting, York, 9 and 10 January 2013

2. © Crown copyright Met Office Outline of Presentation Current Status of UKCA Applications – Operational AQ Forecasts Applications – Scientific Research Applications – International Activities Forward Outlook Conclusions

3. © Crown copyright Met Office Current Status

4. © Crown copyright Met Office UKCA: The Beginning Started in 2003 Initially as a collaboration between Cambridge, Leeds, Oxford, and Met O Objective: To build and evaluate a new UK community atmospheric chemistry-aerosol model

5. © Crown copyright Met Office UKCA Chemistry Schemes Chemistry SchemeTracersSpeciesReactions StdTrop (+Aerosol)26 (33)46 (53)129 (164) TropIsop (+Aerosol)49 (60)56 (67)167 (182) Strat (+Aerosol)37 (45)41 (49)169 (189) StratTrop (+Aerosol)71 (82)75 (86)283 (306) RAQ4058215 Additional schemes: ExtTC and StratCFC not part of UM but can be run using an FCM branch

6. © Crown copyright Met Office Other Features Uses UM ‘New Dynamics’ – SL advection Coupled to various UM configurations – global/regional climate and forecast models Surface and aircraft emissions Interactive CH 4 wetland, DMS, and lightning NO x emissions Offline or online photolysis Simple or multiple-resistance dry deposition Wet deposition Prescribed top/lower boundary conditions Diagnostics

7. © Crown copyright Met Office Applications

8. © Crown copyright Met Office AQ index forecasts now on Met Office website © Crown copyright Met Office RAQ chemistry scheme with CLASSIC aerosols run operationally in a limited area forecast model

9. © Crown copyright Met Office Performance on average over first year of operation – O 3

10. © Crown copyright Met Office Model evaluation – ozone episodes (1)

11. © Crown copyright Met Office Model evaluation – ozone episodes (2) Further details: Savage et al., GMDD, 2012. http://www.geosci-model-dev-discuss.net/5/3131/2012/

12. © Crown copyright Met Office UKCA in the HadGEM2-ES Earth System Model O’Connor et al., GMDD, To be submitted. Collins et al., GMD, 2011. http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/4/1051/2011/ StdTrop

13. © Crown copyright Met Office Quantification of Feedbacks using HadGEM2-ES Collins et al., Earth Sys. Dyn., Submitted.

14. © Crown copyright Met Office HTAP2 Programme Initial Outline emphasis on high-resolution using regional CCMs and CTMs investigate interaction of long-range transport with regional pollution sources present-day (2000) and future (2030) climate and emission (CMIP5 historical and RCP8.5 scenarios) explore North America and North Atlantic Shipping versus UK and non-UK European regional scenarios for NO x and CO/VOC emissions HadGEM3 (global) CCM providing LBCs for HadGEM3-R (regional) CCM -15% NO x scenario – global -15% NO x scenario – regional Courtesy of G. Folberth ExtTC

15. © Crown copyright Met Office HTAP2 Selected Results O 3 surface concentration – UK-NO x experiment DJFMAMJJASON surface ozone (ppbv) difference in sfc O 3 (pptv) emission sensitivity S NOx,O3 (%) global control and -15% in NO x ems over the UK (year 2000) S X/Y = ((100/P X ) (R Y /C Y )) 100 S XY … emissions sensitivity, P X … perturbation in species X (%), R Y … response in species Y (difference ctrl-exp, ppbv), C Y … concentrations of species Y (ppbv) Courtesy of G. Folberth

16. © Crown copyright Met Office International Actitivies CMIP5 and ACCMIP with HadGEM2-ES (StdTrop and ExtTC) CCMVal2 and WMO Ozone Assessment 2010 (Strat) SPARC Lifetime Assessment 2013 (StratCFC)

17. © Crown copyright Met Office Future Outlook

18. © Crown copyright Met Office UKCA in next UK ESM Based on latest science from HadGEM3 model Updated dynamical core (ENDGAME) StratTrop + Aerosol Chemistry UKCA Glomap-MODE Aerosols Direct (RADAER) and indirect (ACTIVATE) aerosol effects Improved lightning emissions Interactive BVOC emissions Land/atmosphere nitrogen coupling

19. © Crown copyright Met Office Ongoing/Future International Activities Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution - Phase2 Chemistry-Climate Modelling Initiative WMO Ozone Assessment 2014 CMIP6

20. © Crown copyright Met Office Recent Papers involving UKCA Collins et al., Development and evaluation of an Earth-system model, Geosci. Model Dev., 2011. Fiore et al., Global Air Quality and Climate, Chem. Soc. Rev., 2012. Folberth et al., Global radiative forcing and megacities, Urban Climate, 2012. O’Connor et al., Sensitivity of a tropospheric chemistry scheme to climate model temperature and humidity biases, Geophys. Res. Lett., 2009. Pacifico et al., Sensitivity of biogenic isoprene emissions to past, present, and future environmental conditions and implications for atmospheric chemistry, J. Geophys. Res., 2012. Savage et al., Air quality modelling using the Met Office Unified Model: model description and initial evaluation, Geosci. Model Dev. Disc., 5, 3131-3182, 2012.

21. © Crown copyright Met Office Main conclusions UKCA supports a number of chemistry schemes UKCA is being applied across a variety of timescales and spatial scales: - from days to centuries - from 12x12 km (L38) to 200x150 km (L85) UKCA has and is participating in a number of international activities e.g. ACCMIP, CCMI, HTAP2 Further development ongoing UKCA Chemistry and Aerosols to form part of the next ESM i.e. UKESM1

22. © Crown copyright Met Office Thank you for your attention!

23. © Crown copyright Met Office UKCA Chemistry Schemes Trop TropIsop = Trop+MIM Aerchem = Trop + S RAQ ExtTC = TropIsop + VOCs Tracers2640274060 Species4660495882 Ethane, Propane Yes IsopreneNoYes Other non- CH 4 VOCs No Alkenes, Aromatics Alkenes, Terpenes, Aromatics Aerosol formation No SulphateNoSOA

24. © Crown copyright Met Office to achieve two principal objectives better horizontal resolution retain same Earth System functionality HadGEM3-R Key Features UKCA-ExtTC and iBVOC in the LAM global gridbox size: ~200x150 km 2 current RCM gridbox size: ~50x50 km 2 HadGEM3-R is now operational including the ES components (near) future RCM gridbox size: ~12.5x12.5 km 2

25. © Crown copyright Met Office HadGEM3HadGEM3-R with ES domain globalregional (Europe and a few more) horizontal resolution 192x144 grid boxes (~200x150 km 2 )122x119 grid boxes (~50x50 km 2, Europe) vertical resolution 63 levels (0 to 39 km) time stepping 20 min (5 min for chemistry)15 min (5 min for chemistry) chemical schemes UKCA: std. and ext. Trop-Chem BVOC emission schemes offline (emission inventory), iBVOC aerosol schemes CLASSIC (SO 4 =, OC, BC), SOA HadGEM3 vs. HadGEM3-R A Brief Comparison

26. © Crown copyright Met Office AQUM Current status Limited area version of the MetUM UKCA chemistry scheme but CLASSIC aerosols 12x12km L38, model top 40 km 5 day forecasts carried out daily, operational since May 2010 Includes initial and boundary meteorological fields based on 4D-Var analysis from the Met Office NAE model Chemical and aerosol lateral boundaries from global forecast of MACC project

27. © Crown copyright Met Office Chemistry scheme used adapted from Collins et al (1997,1999) 40 tracers 16 emitted species 116 gas-phase reactions C2-C3 alkenes (ethene and propene), isoprene and aromatic compounds such as toluene and o-xylene

28. © Crown copyright Met Office Performance on average over first year of operation – PM10

29. © Crown copyright Met Office PM episode April 2011 Model does reasonable job of capturing timing and maximum PM values Nitrate is major component of aerosol in this event

30. © Crown copyright Met Office Planned model developments Higher resolution (initially investigating 4km model grid over Europe) AQMEII model intercomparison Phase 2 More sophisticated treatment of emissions (different time and vertical profile by SNAP sector) GLOMAP-Mode Aerosol scheme