1. Arctic Ice-Ocean Modelling at BIO Shannon Nudds 1, Ji Lei 1, Youyu Lu 1, Charles Hannah 1, Frederic Dupont 2, Zeliang Wang 1, Greg Holloway 1, Michael Dunphy 1, Simon Prinsenberg 1 1. Fisheries and Oceans Canada 2. Environment Canada AOMIP 2010

2. ORCA1 (Global), 1 ° CAA, 1/18 ° (~6 km) 3 Models Pan-Arctic, 1/6 ° (~18 km)

3. ORCA-1Pan-Arctic and CAA NEMO version2.3 Ice modelLIM2 T, S InitializationLevitus + PHC 3.0 for Arctic region PHC 3.0 Ice InitializationGLORYS1v1 Global Simulation ORCA025 Global Simulation OBCN/A monthly T, S, velocity, and sea level from ORCA025 (Flather radiation for barotropic velocity) Surface ForcingCORE/OMIP (test forcing sensitivity) CORE NYF and Real Forcing (1998-2007) Data AssimilationNo Model Configuration/Setup

4. Outline: 1.ORCA1 (global 1 degree) – Sensitivity to forcing (total ice volume) – Using Neptune to study flow though Fram Strait (poster by Zeliang Wang et al.) 2.Pan-Arctic (18 km resolution) – Sea-ice and circulation – Improving Circulation: Neptune AGRIF 3.Nested CAA (6 km resolution) – Circulation – Transport – Sea-ice

5. 1. ORCA1 Model: Total Ice Volume drifting no drifting Different Solutions Using CORE & OMIP Forcing

6. 1. ORCA1 Model: Sensitivity Experiments Idea: Difference in thermal forcing component causing the heat flux change Particularly air temperature and humidity Wind pattern is not responsible for the ice volume drifting Choose to use CORE forcing

7. 1000 mb temperature Surface air temperature Sea surface temperatureIce mask changed June 1997 Jan-March 1998

8. 2.Pan Arctic Model: Mean Ice Thickness Summer (Jul-Sep)Winter (Jan-Mar) Observations Model mm mm

9. 2.Pan Arctic Model: Total Ice Area

10. 50 m400 m m/s 2.Pan Arctic Model: Annual Mean Circulation

11. 2.Pan Arctic Model: Circulation with Neptune No Neptune Neptune Looks promising but analysis still in progress.

12. Without AGRIF With AGRIF Annual Mean Circulation (30 m)

13. A B C D E F A: B:C:D:E:F: 3. CAA

14. Region F: Landcaster Sound SummerWinter Observed by Hamilton et al. 2002 3. CAA

15. Barrow Strait Lancaster Sound Nares Strait Davis Strait Observations Model Barrow Strait Transport R=0.74

16. Barrow Strait Lancaster Sound Nares Strait Davis Strait Observations Model Davis Strait transport R= 0.07 Barrow Strait + Nares Strait ≈ Davis Strait ✔✗ ✗ ***Must be getting Nares Strait Wrong***

17. 3. CAA: Transport Barrow Strait + Nares Strait ≈ Davis Strait ✔✗ ✗

19. 3. CAA: Ice Concentration Observations (CIS), 2007 Model, 2007 JFM AMJJASOND

20. Summary ORCA1 – OMIP thermal forcing causes drifting in sea-ice volume >> Use CORE forcing. Pan-Arctic – Obtain realistic sea-ice and large scale circulation. – Neptune improves small scale circulation for CAA. CAA – AGRIF improves circulation for CAA region. – Need to solve the problem with the magnitude of the transport. – Nares Strait needs work.

21. Next Steps: ORCA1: – Continue with long term simulations. Pan-Arctic: – Continue Neptune analysis. – Long term simulations and validations. – Tides. CAA: – Expand domain. – Neptune. – Tides with AGRIF. – Continue with long term simulations and validation.