1. The current industrial policy in Russia in a comparative perspective Julien Vercueil CREE, INALCO Paris BRICS Seminar, EHESS-FMSH and Employment and Social Security Research Center, International Symposium on Economic Development of BRICS Fudan University, 20-21 April, 2016

2. Introduction. Evolution of the recent industrial policy debates – and trade-offs The Washington Consensus about Industrial Policy – its implementation in Russia Rodrik (2004), Wade R. (2010), Chang H.-J (2012): Industrial Policy and the « Developmental State » argument Institutional framework and industrial policy trade- offs: Planning or dreaming? Coordination or corruption? Learning by doing or laziness? BRICS Seminar, EHESS-FMSH and Employment and Social Security Research Center, International Symposium on Economic Development of BRICS, Fudan University, Shanghai, 20-21 April, 2016

3. 2. Manufacturing Industry in Russia (1) Source : The World Bank BRICS Seminar, EHESS-FMSH and Employment and Social Security Research Center, International Symposium on Economic Development of BRICS, Fudan University, Shanghai, 20-21 April, 2016

4. 2. Manufacturing Industry in Russia (2) Source : The World Bank BRICS Seminar, EHESS-FMSH and Employment and Social Security Research Center, International Symposium on Economic Development of BRICS, Fudan University, Shanghai, 20-21 April, 2016

5. 2. Manufacturing Industry in Russia (3) Manufacturing industry developments : 2000-2008-2014 BRICS Seminar, EHESS-FMSH and Employment and Social Security Research Center, International Symposium on Economic Development of BRICS, Fudan University, Shanghai, 20-21 April, 2016

6. 2. Manufacturing Industry in Russia (4) 2000- 2007-2014 Source : Rosstat BRICS Seminar, EHESS-FMSH and Employment and Social Security Research Center, International Symposium on Economic Development of BRICS, Fudan University, Shanghai, 20-21 April, 2016

7. 2. Industry in Russia: A net loss of « economic complexity » « Economic complexity Index », 1998-2008 19982008ChangeRank BRAZIL 0,680,24-0,43104 RUSSIA 0,690,32-0,36100 INDIA 0,210,25+0,0463 CHINA 0,330,89+0,5716 Source: Hausman, Hidalgo et alii, 2014 BRICS Seminar, EHESS-FMSH and Employment and Social Security Research Center, International Symposium on Economic Development of BRICS, Fudan University, Shanghai, 20-21 April, 2016

8. 3. The evolving priorities of the industrial policy (2000-2014) 1st step (2000-2005): regaining influence on the oil and gas sector. Focus: increasing the State’s financial resources 2 nd step (2005-2006): state holdings companies in other prioritary fields (Rosatom,Vneshekonombank, OAK, OSK, Rostech, Rosnano). Focus: vertical integration of SOEs 3rd step (2007-2011): formulating policies: « Russia 2020 » (in 2007) and « Innovative Russia » (in 2011). Focus: technology transfers, innovation funding First choc of 2009 => shift of economic priorities to the short term and the oil and gas sector. Focus: macro-stabilisation and recovery, banking sector (and foreign currency – indebted main domestic companies) and geographical re- orientation of exports of the oil and gas sector BRICS Seminar, EHESS-FMSH and Employment and Social Security Research Center, International Symposium on Economic Development of BRICS, Fudan University, Shanghai, 20-21 April, 2016

9. 4. Industrial policy in times of crisis (since 2014) A new priority: « Import substitution » => Wide-range spectrum policy New monetary policy and exchange rate developments: is it different from 1998? Financial developments: new tensions over external funding sources (2015 : Russian banks : 5,9% of total capital investment funding sources) Whither domestic market ? (real income decrease and fall of consumer consumption and investment) (ex: automotive sector) External demand: contrasted evolutions (near and far abroad) BRICS Seminar, EHESS-FMSH and Employment and Social Security Research Center, International Symposium on Economic Development of BRICS, Fudan University, Shanghai, 20-21 April, 2016

10. Industrial production durign the crisis. Preliminary observations 2015/2014 (Jan-Oct) BRICS Seminar, EHESS-FMSH and Employment and Social Security Research Center, International Symposium on Economic Development of BRICS, Fudan University, Shanghai, 20-21 April, 2016

11. 4. Conclusion: Russia’s specificities among BRICS countries Two recent and big crises (2009 and 2014-2015) directly linked to the lack of a large, diversified industrial base => urgent need of a correcting structural policy. But : Long-lasting low investment, savings and R&D expenditures rates (as in Brazil) Scarcity of public funds during low oil prices periods (2015: 17 % of capital investment spending) Lack of domestic demand BRICS Seminar, EHESS-FMSH and Employment and Social Security Research Center, International Symposium on Economic Development of BRICS, Fudan University, Shanghai, 20-21 April, 2016

12. Thank you! Chang H.-J. (2012) : « Industrial Policy: Can Africa do It ? », IEA/World Bank Roundtable on Industrial Policy in Africa, Pretoria, 3-4 July 2012. Hausmann R., Hidalgo C., Bustos S., Coscia M., Chung S., Jimenez J., Simoes A., Yldirim M. (2014) : The Atlas of Economic Complexity. Mapping paths to prosperity. Cambridge, Mass: Harvard University Center for International Development. Rodrik D. (2004): « Industrial Policy for the 21st Century », Report for the UNIDO. Wade, R. (2010): « After the Crisis: Industrial Policy and the Developmental State in Low-Income Countries », Global Policy, Vol. 1, Issue 2, May 2010. BRICS Seminar, EHESS-FMSH and Employment and Social Security Research Center, International Symposium on Economic Development of BRICS, Fudan University, Shanghai, 20-21 April, 2016