1. 1 NEW OECD ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLOOK Roberto Martín-Hurtado Environment Directorate, OECD

2. 2 FIRST OECD ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLOOK Released in 2001. Analytical work to support development of the OECD Environmental Strategy adopted by Ministers. Identified key environmental pressures and issues to 2020 =>“red lights”. Focus = problem identification

3. 3 OECD ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLOOK: TRAFFIC LIGHTS Some air pollutants (lead, CFCs, NOx, SOx) Forest coverage in OECD regions Water use Surface water quality Hazardous waste & toxic emissions from industry Energy production & use Forest quality in OECD regions Waste management GHG emissions Motor vehicle & aviation air pollution Municipal waste gen. Agricultural pollution & groundwater quality Over-fishing Biodiversity & tropical forest coverage Chemicals in the environment

4. 4 NEW OECD ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLOOK Requested by EPOC (Nov. 2003) and Environment Ministers (April 2004). Analytical background report for next OECD Environment Ministerial Meeting (2008). Outlook of environmental pressures to 2030 (update of first Outlook + some new issues). Substantial section on environmental policy simulations. More in-depth assessment of environmental developments in non-OECD countries and impact of OECD policies on these.

5. 5 TIMETABLE 2004-Strengthening of economic baseline assumptions (eg. Workshop in June 2004). 2005-Finalise economic baseline; make connections to environmental model(s). -Table of contents to EPOC for approval (April 2005). 2006-Run policy simulations. -Development of chapters (input from other OECD bodies). 2007-Finalise report with EPOC. -Release 3Q 2007. 2008-Background to 2008 Environment Ministerial Meeting.

6. 6 SOME OTHER ISSUES Regional breakdownAround 30 “regions”, of which some 10 non-OECD “regions” Special topicsUrban air quality and the northern-hemispheric circulation of air pollution Country contributionsLarger contributions from Norway, Netherlands, Japan, Korea Report coordinationUNEP’s GEO-4, EEA’s Belgrade Assessment coming out in Sept 2007. Data sharing, similar baselines.

7. 7 THANK YOU!