1. Study Participants Hassan Bukhari, Kanwal Rizvi Joveria Baig, Wafa Veljee Syed Ali Raza LUMS School of Science and Engineering International Conference on Water Resources, Engineering and Management 2011, UET

2. Motivation Studying the effects of deforestation on hydrology of ANP is critical due to the changing environment WWF in collaboration with Coca cola is working on these problems and wanted a mathematical model Wanted to explore avenues of undergraduate research

3. How did we do this Literature review of papers from all around the world on this topic. There are widely used well defined methods which were beyond our scope, budget and time. Support from WWF Support from SSE instructors from the Math, Physics and Biology Departments who guided us and provided resources

4. Final model Collected and documented maximum observables on the field using most efficient techniques. 3 days, 18 sites from forested and deforested areas Linear Regression of collected data in MATLAB Infiltration = A1 Vegetation + A2 Slope + A3 Elevation + A4…

6. Cheap and Effective

7. Infiltration Self Fabricated steel double ring infiltrometer, with 3 and 4 inches diameter pipes.

8. Water Content Saturated water content = Vol water/Vol soil Gravimetric water content = Mass water/ bulk mass

9. Other Variables Vegetation Trees in 100m 2 (Blue Pine, Fir) Deciduous bushes Grasses and Shrubs Canopy Slope Elevation Latitude Longitude Air and Soil Temperature

10. Linear Regression at its best

11. Results: Infiltration Model Predicted and actual infiltration Error: 22.28

12. Outliers Site 1 in the forested area was our first site. Site 3 in the deforested area was infected with ants Site 8 in the deforested area was a small clump of trees (control)

13. Outliers Removed Error:6.42

14. Results: Porosity Model Predicted and actual effective porosity Error: 0.0451

15. Same sites removed Error: 0.0264

16. Analysis for Infiltration Model Error= 6.42 ParameterCoefficient Canopy1.91251 Grass0.9140 Shrubs1.2309 Small bushes0.8792 Leaf Litter-36.9475 Elevation-0.0089 Slope0.6922 ParameterCoefficient Total Trees-1.8761 Fir-0.5919 Blue Pine- Soil Temp-2.0928 Air Temp3.6457 Volumetric-214.0033 Gravimetric74.6066

17. Analysis for Porosity ParameterCoefficient Canopy0.0086 Grass0.0022 Shrubs0.0034 Small Bushes0.0004 Leaf Litter-0.1348 Elevation-0.0000 Slope-0.0046 Total Trees-0.0026 Fir-0.0027 Blue Pine0.0069 Soil Temp0.0064 Air Temp0.0166

18. Can it predict? We randomly eliminated sites from our model and predicted the value of infiltration for the site. Even with only 17 sites the agreement was good. Dropped siteActual cm/hrPredicted cm/hr 155.36.1 71.3-2.3 1669.747.3

19. What we concluded for WWF/ Coke Coke was interested in ground water recharge Above ground: Precipitation = Surface Runoff + Evaporation + Increment in Surface Water Retention + Infiltration Below Ground: Infiltration = Underground Runoff + Ground evaporation + Ground Water Recharge Infiltration cm/hr Effective Porosity Trees / 100 m 2 Forested26.560.7525 Deforested9.620.463

20. Below ground IF = URF + E F + GWRF Forested: ID = URD + E D + GWRD Deforested: IF - ID = UR F -URD + EF - E D + GWRF – GWRD Change after Forestation ∆Infiltration - ∆Underground Runoff - ∆Evaporation ∆Water recharge =

21. Assumption Big assumption 1: All infiltration occurs at saturation. Assumption 2: Precipitation patterns are unchanged by limited plantation Assumption 3: ∆Underground Runoff = 0 or less than zero

22. Total Infiltration = Rate x Time Infiltration Forested = Rate in forest x Time Infiltration Deforested Rate in Deforested x Time Infiltration Forested = Rate F / Rate D Infiltration Deforested Infiltration Forested = 2.76 Infiltration Deforested ∆Infiltration = 1.76 Total Infiltration Deforested Area ∆Water Recharge = 1.76 TID – 167mm

23. Conclusion Foresting an area will increase the total infiltration by up to 75%! Surprisingly good fit for linear regression model for infiltration and porosity

24. Learning Outcomes Shrubs, bushes and dense canopy are more essential than a large number of trees for a healthy hydrological system. We have developed and tested an economically feasible and technically appropriate methods to quantitatively model complex hydrological relationships Good opportunity for undergraduate research

25. VS ?