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Macro Sustainability Assessments (MSA): Financial Sector Issues RES Workshop with Country Economists, September 2011.

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Presentation on theme: "Macro Sustainability Assessments (MSA): Financial Sector Issues RES Workshop with Country Economists, September 2011."— Presentation transcript:

1 Macro Sustainability Assessments (MSA): Financial Sector Issues RES Workshop with Country Economists, September 2011

2 What Did the Guidelines Say?  Can be descriptive  Structure of the Sector (Banks, non-Banks…)  Main trends including: –Non performing loans / total loans), –Solvency ratios –Coverage of non-performing loans by provisions (provisions / non performance loans) –Capital ratios: Profitability (ROA) –Liquidity  Discussion of Stability Issues including using inputs from the IMF as and when available

3 Guidelines and Reality  On the whole the MSA’s I have seen have provided a reasonable description of:  Financial Sector Structure  Performance  Discussion of Stability Issues  Used inputs from IMF where available

4 The Good News  Process appears to have deepened our knowledge regarding financial systems in LAC  While descriptive, the analysis has brought out the main trends and identified potential risks  This has likely enhanced our understanding of the economies more generally and the potential role of the IDB in our economies  In at least one case the MSA analysis has identified a major potential threat to economic stability

5 The Other News  Descriptive analyses only go so far  Fraud is almost impossible to detect (e.g.: Banco Panamericano in Brazil)  Inputs from the IMF are useful but in several cases not available, out of date, or of variable quality  Issue: how to get better information from the IMF or from other sources on financial systems  The MSA’s are not systematic in terms of how the sections are organized, what data is considered, how issues are discussed etc. This limits the usefulness of the exercise

6 The Underlying Structural Problem  It is almost impossible to quantify these risks  As discussed previously, econometric models of banking crises perform rather poorly  Financial systems are complex, risks are subtle, easily hidden and complex  What should we do in this situation?

7 Ideas to Discuss  Can we establish some benchmarks to judge our financial systems?  Bankscope is the only database with relatively homogeneous data across countries for individual banking institutions  We have put together a database of all of the consolidated accounts available (about 140 institutions)  We are putting together a database that combines consolidated accounts with those that are not consolidated  Caveat: some countries are covered better than others  Can use the distribution of indicators to establish some norms

8 Establish Norms Across the Region Example: tier 1 capital ratios Tier 1 Capital Ratios: Percentage of Country Banks Relative to the Distribution of the region

9 We have done this now for these indicators  Can do this for standard ratios such as:  Total regulatory capital ratio  Tier 1 capital ratio  NPL / Total Loans  (NPL’s-Provisions)/Equity  Loan growth  Growth of total assets  Securities as % of total assets

10 And we can move to a More Systematic Checklist Approach for the MSA financial sector analysis  Example: S&P methodology to rate countries’ financial systems  KCP considering if this is feasible  Issue: how to combine subjective judgment with objective indicators as available  Some external validation may be required  Caveats: even if we establish norms or a more systematic methodology this would still would not allow us to quantify the probability of a crisis

11 Network issues  We also need to try to use the analysis to consider financial systems more as networks  To understand links between institutions within a financial system and across countries

12 Network effects: subsidiary relations


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