Public opinion Chapter 6.

Public opinion Chapter 6

Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.
Learning Objectives 6.1 Decide why public opinion is powerful 6.2 Describe how well polls measure public opinion 6.3 Identify who drives public opinion—citizens or elites 6.4 Discover how ideology and partisanship shape public opinion 6.5 Describe how demographic characteristics influence public opinion Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

The Power of Public Opinion
In the Gettysburg Address, Abraham Lincoln expressed the idea that democratic government must be responsive to the will of the people. Writing more than one hundred years ago, James Bryce, a noted observer of U.S. politics, contended that public opinion is “the greatest source of power” in the United States. approval rating: Job performance evaluation for the president, Congress, or other public official or institution that is generated by public opinion polls and is typically reported as a percentage. public opinion: Aggregate of individual attitudes or beliefs about certain issues or officials. efficacy: Extent to which people believe their actions can affect public affairs and the actions of government. political trust: Extent to which people believe the government acts in their best interests. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

The Power of Presidential Approval By the time he left office, President George W. Bush had the lowest popularity rating for any president since the start of scientific polling in the 1930s. After a so-called "honeymoon" period, presidents normally see their popularity fall. approval rating: Job performance evaluation for the president, Congress, or other public official or institution that is generated by public opinion polls and is typically reported as a percentage. public opinion: Aggregate of individual attitudes or beliefs about certain issues or officials. efficacy: Extent to which people believe their actions can affect public affairs and the actions of government. political trust: Extent to which people believe the government acts in their best interests. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Approval Ratings of President Barack Obama, 2009-2014
Figure 6.1 Presidents’ approval ratings generally decline during their time in office, but President Obama’s popularity experienced a brief surge after the assassination of Osama bin Laden. Millennials have a higher approval of the president than older Americans. Source: Gallup Key Question Were President Obama’s policies responsive to public opinion? Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

What Is Public Opinion? Expressed through voting The primary way that the electorate expresses its opinion The “approval rating” is the job performance evaluation for the president, Congress, or other public official or institution that is generated by public opinion polls and typically reported as a percentage. approval rating: Job performance evaluation for the president, Congress, or other public official or institution that is generated by public opinion polls and is typically reported as a percentage. public opinion: Aggregate of individual attitudes or beliefs about certain issues or officials. efficacy: Extent to which people believe their actions can affect public affairs and the actions of government. political trust: Extent to which people believe the government acts in their best interests. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

What Is Public Opinion? The aggregate of individual attitudes or beliefs about certain issues or officials. The Public’s Support of Government Efficacy: Extent to which people believe their actions can affect public affairs and the actions of government. Political trust: Extent to which people believe the government acts in their best interests. approval rating: Job performance evaluation for the president, Congress, or other public official or institution that is generated by public opinion polls and is typically reported as a percentage. public opinion: Aggregate of individual attitudes or beliefs about certain issues or officials. efficacy: Extent to which people believe their actions can affect public affairs and the actions of government. political trust: Extent to which people believe the government acts in their best interests. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Public trust in the Government has decreased over the past 50 years. OTOH public opinion suggests that overall, Americans' commitment to the country and its core institutions is strong. approval rating: Job performance evaluation for the president, Congress, or other public official or institution that is generated by public opinion polls and is typically reported as a percentage. public opinion: Aggregate of individual attitudes or beliefs about certain issues or officials. efficacy: Extent to which people believe their actions can affect public affairs and the actions of government. political trust: Extent to which people believe the government acts in their best interests. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Public Opinion Polls Gauging Public Opinion in the Past Historically, politicians have gauged public opinion by looking at letters newspaper articles attendance at rallies willingness to sign petitions In the 1800s, newspapers and other organizations used straw polls to assess public opinion. random sample: Method of selection that gives everyone who might be selected to participate in a poll an equal chance to be included. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Public Opinion Polls Prior to the creation of scientific polling in the 1930s, politicians often relied on elite opinions to garner information about the general mood of the nation. Opinion from the most active and wealthy members of a political community The results of Harrisburg Pennsylvanian (1824) and Literary Digest (1936) polls suggest nonscientific polling is of only limited help in determining public opinion. random sample: Method of selection that gives everyone who might be selected to participate in a poll an equal chance to be included. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Public Opinion Polls Scientific Polling and the Growth of Survey Research Surveys of public opinion, or polls, are the most reliable indicator of what the public is thinking, and an entire industry and science have grown up around measuring opinion on everything from presidents to toothpaste. Gallup’s random sample: Method of selection that gives everyone who might be selected to participate in a poll an equal chance to be included. random sample: Method of selection that gives everyone who might be selected to participate in a poll an equal chance to be included. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Public Opinion Polls George Gallup accurately predicted the outcome of the 1936 election by using a random sample to generate a way to select people to participate in surveys The typical size of a national sample survey is 1000 people. Scientific polls provided for the democratization of public opinion. In order for a sample to be representative, all in a population must have an equal chance of being asked to participate (random). random sample: Method of selection that gives everyone who might be selected to participate in a poll an equal chance to be included. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Public Opinion Polls Other sources of public opinion include: The size of rallies and protests. The tone of letters sent to elected officials. The tone of letters sent to newspapers. The amount of money given to particular causes. random sample: Method of selection that gives everyone who might be selected to participate in a poll an equal chance to be included. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Public Opinion Polls Types of Polls Tracking: Polls that seek to gauge changes of opinion of the same sample size over a period of time during presidential campaigns nightly polls gauge changes in voters’ preferences for the major contenders Exit: Polls that survey a sample of voters immediately after exiting the voting booth to predict the outcome of the election before the ballots are officially counted. tracking polls: Polls that seek to gauge changes of opinion of the same sample size over a period of time, common during the closing months of presidential elections. exit polls: Polls that survey a sample of voters immediately after exiting the voting booth to predict the outcome of the election before the ballots are officially counted. push polls: Polls that are designed to manipulate the opinions of those being polled. confidence interval: Statistical range, with a given probability, that takes random error into account. nonattitudes: Sources of error in public opinion polls in which individuals feel obliged to give opinions when they are unaware of the issue or have no opinions about it. Key Questions Have you ever looked at a poll and questioned its validity? How might you gauge a poll’s validity? Do polls make sure the people’s voices are heard? Should public officials be influenced by polls? Do all Americans have an equal chance of being included in polls? Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Public Opinion Polls Types of Polls Push: Polls that are designed to manipulate the opinions of those being polled by providing misleading information. Error in Polls Confidence interval (margin of error): Statistical range, with a given probability, that takes random error into account. The Future of Polls Telephone surveys affected by cell phones tracking polls: Polls that seek to gauge changes of opinion of the same sample size over a period of time, common during the closing months of presidential elections. exit polls: Polls that survey a sample of voters immediately after exiting the voting booth to predict the outcome of the election before the ballots are officially counted. push polls: Polls that are designed to manipulate the opinions of those being polled. confidence interval: Statistical range, with a given probability, that takes random error into account. nonattitudes: Sources of error in public opinion polls in which individuals feel obliged to give opinions when they are unaware of the issue or have no opinions about it. Key Questions Have you ever looked at a poll and questioned its validity? How might you gauge a poll’s validity? Do polls make sure the people’s voices are heard? Should public officials be influenced by polls? Do all Americans have an equal chance of being included in polls? Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

The Measurement of Public Opinion
Polling Techniques Telephone polling is standard Internet One problem is older and poor Americans lack access to computers. The book suggests the future of survey research lies with Internet polls Quota polls Push polls Attempts to spread negative statements about a candidate by posing as a polltaker.

Public Opinion Polls President Harry Truman holding up a newspaper proclaiming that he lost the 1948 presidential election to Thomas Dewey. But Tribune’s polls were wrong, and Truman had actually won that election. Source: Time and Life Pictures/Getty Images Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Problems with polls Increasing refusal to participate in telephone polls Telephone surveys affected by cell phones However current research suggests that people without landlines vote no differently than those with them. Polled individuals unfamiliar with issues Dishonesty by respondents Often, people will attempt to please the interviewer.

Problems with polls Poorly worded questions and poor question order Yes/no answers are a problem if the issue admits to shades of gray. The wording of a question can create bias in the results of a poll. Non-opinions Sampling Error

What Drives Public Opinion?
Social and Political Environment Socialization: Impact and influence of one’s social environment on the views and attitudes one carries in life, a primary source of political attitudes. Through socialization or genes, parents have the biggest impact during a child’s early life. People's worldview about how they feel about work, family, and politics is crystallized between the ages of 18 and 24. socialization: Impact and influence of one’s social environment on the views and attitudes one carries in life, a primary source of political attitudes. Independents: Individuals who do not affiliate with either of the major political parties. Millennials: Generation born between 1982 and 2003. self-interest: Concern for one’s own advantage and well-being. rationality: Acting in a way that is consistent with one’s self-interest. Key Questions Have your political opinions ever changed? If so, what led to the change? What are the sources of public opinion? Does every citizen have an equal chance to be heard? Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Generational Effects: Effects on opinion from the era in which one lives The Great Depression Same-sex marriage One of the ways that Millennials appear to be politically distinct from previous generations is that they are more trusting in government. socialization: Impact and influence of one’s social environment on the views and attitudes one carries in life, a primary source of political attitudes. Independents: Individuals who do not affiliate with either of the major political parties. Millennials: Generation born between 1982 and 2003. self-interest: Concern for one’s own advantage and well-being. rationality: Acting in a way that is consistent with one’s self-interest. Key Questions Have your political opinions ever changed? If so, what led to the change? What are the sources of public opinion? Does every citizen have an equal chance to be heard? Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Self-Interest and Rationality: Concern for one’s own advantage and well-being. People tending to vote Republican as their income rises is an example of self-interest Families interested in education policy Elites Undue influence? socialization: Impact and influence of one’s social environment on the views and attitudes one carries in life, a primary source of political attitudes. Independents: Individuals who do not affiliate with either of the major political parties. Millennials: Generation born between 1982 and 2003. self-interest: Concern for one’s own advantage and well-being. rationality: Acting in a way that is consistent with one’s self-interest. Key Questions Have your political opinions ever changed? If so, what led to the change? What are the sources of public opinion? Does every citizen have an equal chance to be heard? Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Shift in Public Opinion on Same-Sex Marriage
Figure 6.2 Do you strongly favor, favor, oppose, or strongly oppose allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally? Source: Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

The Shape of Public Opinion
Partisanship Allegiance to a political party The psychological attachment that a person feels to a political party is called party identification Predictor of attitude on a range of issues Partisanship is most likely determined by socialization through a person's parents. If a child's parents differ on partisanship, there is a high likelihood that their children will identify as independents. Party identification: Psychological attachment to a political party; partisanship. political ideology: Set of coherent political beliefs that offers a philosophy for thinking about the scope of government. liberals: Individuals who have faith in government to improve people’s lives, believing that private efforts are insufficient. In the social sphere, liberals usually support diverse lifestyles and tend to oppose any government action that seeks to shape personal choices. conservatives: Individuals who distrust government, believing that private efforts are more likely to improve people’s lives. In the social sphere, conservatives usually support traditional lifestyles and tend to believe that government can play a valuable role in shaping personal choices. moderates: Individuals who are in the middle of the ideological spectrum and do not hold consistently strong views about whether government should be involved in people’s lives. levels of conceptualization: Measure of how ideologically coherent individuals are in their political evaluations. Key Question How does party identification relate to ideology? Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Political Ideology: A set of coherent beliefs that offers a philosophy for thinking about the scope of government Liberals tend to be Democrats Conservatives tend to be Republicans Moderates Party identification: Psychological attachment to a political party; partisanship. political ideology: Set of coherent political beliefs that offers a philosophy for thinking about the scope of government. liberals: Individuals who have faith in government to improve people’s lives, believing that private efforts are insufficient. In the social sphere, liberals usually support diverse lifestyles and tend to oppose any government action that seeks to shape personal choices. conservatives: Individuals who distrust government, believing that private efforts are more likely to improve people’s lives. In the social sphere, conservatives usually support traditional lifestyles and tend to believe that government can play a valuable role in shaping personal choices. moderates: Individuals who are in the middle of the ideological spectrum and do not hold consistently strong views about whether government should be involved in people’s lives. levels of conceptualization: Measure of how ideologically coherent individuals are in their political evaluations. Key Question How does party identification relate to ideology? Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

A Recent Rise in Independents
Figure 6.3 In the last few years, there has been an increase in the share of Americans who claim to be independents. Source: Source: Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Liberal Policy Mood of Americans, 1952-2012
Figure 6.4 The policy mood of Americans is rarely fixed, moving toward liberalism following George W. Bush’s election in 2000 and then toward conservatism following Barack Obama’s election in 2008. Source: Adapted from James Stimson, “Policy Mood,” accessed January 17, 2014, /Welcome.html. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Is the Public Informed? Fewer than half know the name of their own congressional representative Yet voters hold their legislators accountable Only 10 percent know the name of the Speaker of the House. Only about one-third can name one U.S. Supreme Court justice. Only about half know which party controls Congress. polarization: Condition in which differences between parties and/ or the public are so stark that disagreement breaks out, fueling attacks and controversy. Key Questions How coherent is public opinion? Is the public becoming more liberal or more conservative? How can you tell? Is public opinion worth listening to? Should elected official care about public opinion? How much information does the public need to possess to make self-government possible? Do political parties influence public opinion, or is it the other way around? How would you explain the fact that political trust has declined in recent decades, yet interest in elections has increased? Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Individuals often rely on cues and instincts to make decisions, rather than on an analysis of detailed information. Scholars have termed such thinking as low information rationality. President Ford not knowing how to eat a tamale and President H.W. Bush not knowing the price of milk hurt both candidates in connecting with voters and are examples of low information rationality. polarization: Condition in which differences between parties and/ or the public are so stark that disagreement breaks out, fueling attacks and controversy. Key Questions How coherent is public opinion? Is the public becoming more liberal or more conservative? How can you tell? Is public opinion worth listening to? Should elected official care about public opinion? How much information does the public need to possess to make self-government possible? Do political parties influence public opinion, or is it the other way around? How would you explain the fact that political trust has declined in recent decades, yet interest in elections has increased? Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Polarization: A condition in which differences between parties and/or the public are so stark that disagreement breaks out, fueling attacks and controversy Is the Public Polarized? Congress has become more polarized Worries of public incivility polarization: Condition in which differences between parties and/ or the public are so stark that disagreement breaks out, fueling attacks and controversy. Key Questions How coherent is public opinion? Is the public becoming more liberal or more conservative? How can you tell? Is public opinion worth listening to? Should elected official care about public opinion? How much information does the public need to possess to make self-government possible? Do political parties influence public opinion, or is it the other way around? How would you explain the fact that political trust has declined in recent decades, yet interest in elections has increased? Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Group Differences Socioeconomic Status Occupation, education, income, wealth, lifestyle Political parties have a class bias Working-class people are more likely than wealthier people to favor more government programs to help the poor and provide child care, more funding for public education, and more protection for Social Security. gender gap: Differences in the political attitudes and behavior of men and women. Key Questions Does being a member of a demographic group shape opinion? Is your political opinion shaped by your social class, age, religion, gender, race and ethnicity, and/or education level? Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Group Differences Age People become more conservative as they age Religion Influence of Roe v. Wade decision gender gap: Differences in the political attitudes and behavior of men and women. Key Questions Does being a member of a demographic group shape opinion? Is your political opinion shaped by your social class, age, religion, gender, race and ethnicity, and/or education level? Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Group Differences Gender Gap: Differences in the political attitudes and behavior of men and women. Political gender gap emerged in 1980s Women became more supportive of democrats Women generally more liberal than men Gender gaps are also evident on specific issues. gender gap: Differences in the political attitudes and behavior of men and women. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Group Differences Race and Ethnicity Policies that grant racial or gender preferences in hiring, education, or contracting are called affirmative action programs. Three times as many African Americans favored affirmative action in 2012 Political opinion divided among Latinos Asian Americans more liberal than white Americans gender gap: Differences in the political attitudes and behavior of men and women. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Latino Electorate Projected to Grow in Key States
Figure 6.8 Both parties need to find ways to reach out to Latino voters if they want to win elections in the coming years. Source: Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Group Differences Education
Today, more than one in two Americans have attended college More access . As education is connected to public opinion, the views on the controversial issue of immigration reform is an instructive example. Among college graduates, 75 percent favored making it possible for those here illegally to become citizens. Generational replacement The idea that older, less-educated citizens have passed on, and the average level of education of the American public has thus increased. Generational replacement refers to the idea that older, less-educated citizens have passed on, and the average level of education of the American public has thus increased.

Percentage with “Some College” Education, 1948-2012
Figure 6.9 Since the end of World War II, education levels have steadily increased. Level of education is a factor affecting public opinion on a range of specific issues. Source: American National Election Studies. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Public Opinion and Democracy
Elections express the public’s will Public officials stay in touch through public opinion polls Some say connection between opinion and policy is weak Politicians adopt views that will not arouse electorate’s anger Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Video Discussion Questions
How does ideology shape political participation? Does personal contact change your support for a candidate? Does it change your opinion of his or her views? Do you share your opinions with political volunteers? Why or why not? Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

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