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The New Strategic Hierarchy

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0 Joint Military Operations Department
Theater Strategy Dr. Doug Hime Joint Military Operations Department U.S. Naval War College

1 The New Strategic Hierarchy
National Security Strategy (NSS) National Defense Strategy (NDS) National Military Strategy (NMS) Employ the Force Manage the Force Develop the Force Guidance for Employment of the Force (GEF) Nuclear Weapons Planning Guidance Global Force Mgmt Contingency Security Cooperation Posture Defense Planning Guidance (DPG) Analytic Agenda Guidance Joint Concepts & Experiment. Science & Technology Strategic Planning Transfor- mation Global Posture Human Capital Strategy It is important to remember where Security Cooperation fits into the grand scheme of strategy. As a quick refresher, SC planning guidance is directed by the GEF which is a result of the national level strategies listed. NSS, NDS, NMS all give guidance and direction on employment, management and development of the Force. Of note, a good discussion item fits nicely here about the ends, ways and means and their relationship to the guidance hierarchy. ENDS: The National Security Strategy Goals: Political & Economic Freedom, Peaceful relations w/ other states, Respect for human dignity, are… “Ends.” WAYS: The NDS, NMS, and Theater Strategy provide Operational Objectives… MEANS: Theater Campaign Plans and their Security Cooperation Planning and activities/resources are “Means” for implementing the “Ends” and “Ways.” DPPG incorporates numerous documents that are used to guide some management and development of the Force. GEF reflects clearer linkages from strategy to operations/activities, the GEF (classified Secret) incorporates the guidance for: • Security Cooperation- Tasks combatant commanders with developing campaign plans to illustrate how all steady-state activities in the AOR contribute to the strategic end states. Provides focus areas and tools for combatant commanders to integrate in their peacetime military engagement activities on a regional basis, thereby gaining efficiency through the coordination of engagement activities theater end states and objectives. In addition to the obvious efficiencies achieved by harmonizing multiple sources of planning guidance, DOD also improved upon another point of past friction—the GEF was developed in parallel with the JSCP, creating a greater likelihood of complementary products JSCP provides plans guidance (While not shown in this slide, it would make sense to discuss the JSCP here. The second back up slide might help when speaking to JSCP) Build : Simply shows that this is where the GEF has incorporated what used to be a separate document: Security Cooperation Guidance. “Tasks the Combatant Commanders to develop and execute campaign plans that integrate, synchronize, and prioritize daily activities in support of strategic end states to include security cooperation and Phase 0 actions.” quoted from JSCP CJCS Comprehensive Risk Assessment

2 Shaping of Theater Strategy
Ends Ways Means Risk

3 Theater Strategic Estimate
Strategic Direction U.S. Policy Goals Non-U.S./Multinational Policy Goals End States Strategic Environment Area of Responsibility Area of Interest Adversary Forces Friendly Forces Neutral Forces Assessment of Major Strategic/Operational Challenges Potential Opportunities Assessment of Risks

4 What is our operating environment?
Volatile Uncertain Complex Ambiguous

5 “Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning”
Problem Typology In 1973, Horst Rittel and Melvin Webber, urban planners at the University of California, Berkley, wrote an article for Policy Sciences entitled, “Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning” The authors observed that there is a whole realm of social planning problems that cannot be successfully treated with traditional linear, analytical approaches. They called these wicked problems, in contrast to tame problems.

6 Tame Problems Have a relatively well-defined and stable problem statement. When the solution or a solution is reached, we know it. Fit a linear, analytical problem solving process. Belong to a class of similar problems that can be solved in a similar manner. Have solutions that can be tried and abandoned. 6

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8 Wicked Problems Incomplete, contradictory, and changing requirements.
Solutions often difficult to recognize as such because of complex interdependencies. Every implemented “solution” to a wicked problem has consequences and may cause additional problems. Every wicked problem can be considered to be a symptom of another problem. Wicked problems have no stopping rules. Solutions to wicked problems are not true-or-false, but instead—better, worse, or good enough. The linear, analytical planning construct rarely fits. There is no immediate or ultimate test of a solution to a wicked problem; the problem may never truly be solved.

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10 Structural Differences in Problems
Well structured problems: All information is available to the planner A standard (algorithm) process is used Ill-structured problems: Ambiguity permits only a partial definition of a problem Requires a combination of a rational, analytical approach (algorithm) with a creative approach (heuristic)

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12 Design A methodology for applying critical and creative thinking to understand, visualize, and describe complex, ill-structured problems and develop approaches to solve them. JWC Pamphlet 10 In layman’s terms—informed discourse. Doug

13 A Design Methodology for Building a Theater Strategy
Frame the Environment Describe the current environment Determine the tendency of the environment Analyze available DIME power and limitations Determine the desired end state for the theater Determine alternative end states Frame the Problem Set that the Theater Strategy Must Solve Develop the Strategic Approach

14 Develop the Strategic Approach
Develop objectives. Build a strategic concept. Link the decisive points together in lines of effort. Capture the strategic approach. Analyze the strategic approach: What are the probable consequences of success and failure of the strategy? What assumptions were made in this strategy and what is the effect if an assumption is wrong? What would a change in certain aspects of the environment have on the strategy? How will other actors react to certain activities of the strategy, and what happens to the strategy if they take unfavorable actions in reaction? What is the balance between intended and unintended consequences (effects) of our activities on the strategy? What mitigating activities will reduce the impact of unintended consequences of our activities?

15 Components of a Theater Campaign Plan
Initial Theater Assessment Mission Statement Concept of Engagement Intermediate Military Objectives Coordinating Instructions Resources

16 Combatant Commander’s Theater Campaign Plan
Combatant Commander’s Theater Strategy (Desired End State and Strategic Objectives) Campaign Plan Security Cooperation Objectives and Activities Security Concern Z Support to Global Campaign XX CONPLAN 3 Region X Region Y You’ve seen this one before, in the JOPES session. The point is that the Security Cooperation activities must be linked to the overall campaign plan in some manner and is looked at as a coherent strategic approach to preserving peace, deterring conflict and shaping operations. GCCs can create their Security Cooperation plans in numerous ways … there is no standardized method. The plans can be embedded in the campaign plan, written as a separate annex of a different plan, … etc. PACOM chooses to incorporate Security Cooperation objectives and tasks in their country annexes to the regional plans. CONPLAN 2 OPLAN 1 CONPLAN 1

17 Campaign Planning Priorities
Global Core Partners Critical Partnerships Key supporting partnerships Key countries or non-state actors of concern GEF changed the terms used to categorize United States/Country Involvement. Here are four terms and descriptions listed in priority. Global Core Partners Maintain a long-term stable and dependable relationship with the United States, Demonstrated the capacity and either intent or long term potential to work closely with the United States in providing Security Cooperation Assistance to other countries, Currently collaborate with the United States or could do so in the future in multiple regions to meet multiple theater or functional strategic end states, Currently be or have the potential to become a leader with the United States as a supportive partner in promoting regional security, and Possess or have the potential to develop advanced defense capabilities. Critical Partnerships: Countries and/or organizations that are direct recipients of US security cooperation Cannot achieve one or more end states without engagement Reflect a deliberately select group of countries or organizations May be current relationships or desired future relationships Partnerships must be pursued during the life of this guidance (next 2 years) Key supporting partnerships: Countries or organizations that assist a command in achieving one or more end states May or may not be from the region in question Militarily competent and provide one or more capabilities that complement or supplement US capabilities Key countries or non-state actors of concern: May or may not be potential adversaries Security cooperation and Phase 0 activities designed to assist with problems or influence behavior, counter negative influence, or set the conditions for operational success Must pose a problem to a region in an immediate and direct way

18 Security Cooperation / Shaping Activities
Global Core Partners Global End State(s) CCDR Regional or Functional End State(s) Critical Partnerships Key Supporting Partnerships Countries of Concern The CCDR campaign plan is the mechanism for organizing, integrating and prioritizing security cooperation activities Assurance and Region Confidence Building Security Cooperation Focus Areas Intelligence and Information Sharing Operational Access and Global Freedom of Action Combined Operations Capacity, Interoperability, Standardization Support to Institutional Capacity/ Civil-Sector Capacity Building Institutional Capacity Operational Capacity and Capability Building Human Capacity/ Human Capital Development International Armaments and Space Cooperation International Suasion and Collaboration The GEF identifies “Global Core Partners” and “Critical Partnerships,” then directs the CCDRs to dedicate 50% of their activities to working with these countries. Security cooperation activities, which are integrated into the CCDR’s Campaign Plan, are grouped into ten focus areas: Key points: What other agencies and government departments have a role or say in the focus areas? Shaping operations for the branch plans also should be nested within the focus areas and listed in the TSCMIS. Security Cooperation Activities/Tools

19 PACOM Planning Executing Cycle
J4 TSCP J5 Plans Out to 5 years J8 Assesses Plans 2 times per year J3 Directs through Theater Campaign Order 18 months out JESB Integration J3 Monitors Campaign Execution and Modifies OPORD The PACOM Planning and Execution Cycle depicts the major evolutions taking place within the cycle as well as the directorate of primary responsibility. Differences in priorities amongst the supporting commands are ironed out at the Joint Executive Steering Board.

20 PACOM Framework TCP Appendix to Annex C Build Relationships
Annex O TSCP Build Relationships Assured Presence Strategic Communication PACOM structures its campaign plan with multiple subordinate campaign plans that support the theater plan for peace along three lines of effort (Build Relationships, Assured Presence, and Strategic Communication). Annex O – Theater Security Cooperation Plan, outlines areas of responsibility and timelines, but the objectives and end states for those countries are found in a different Appendix with the actual operations, actions and activities located in Country Security Cooperation Plans. PACOM also publishes a Theater Campaign Order that tasks subordinate commands. Country Security Cooperation Plans Country Security Cooperation Plans Country Security Cooperation Plans

21 Finding the “Sweet Spot”
Determining Where Objectives Overlap CCDR Theater Campaign Plan Campaign Support Plans DOS Mission Strategic & Resource Plan DOD Country Plan Common Interests & Objectives Country Planning Ally / Partner Nation Preferences GEF Admiral Locklear is keen on making sure our approach to Security Cooperation is looking at the whole of government as well as the Pacific nations. Key point of discussion based on this diagram, what is the approach if the Partner Nation’s interests and objectives do not overlap the DOD Country Plan? What actions and activities or approach does a Combatant Command take to shape the future?

22 Planning Construct National Guidance (NSS/NDS/NMS) GEF End States
Broad National Objectives All Elements of National Power GEF End States Long Term Goals > 5 yrs Only achieved through integrated USG effort Guidance Long Term Goals > 5 yrs; nested with GEF Basis for Theater Campaign Plan Theater Strategic Obj (TSO) Intermediate Mil Obj (IMO) Amplify Theater Strategic Objectives Achievable near term 3 to 5 yrs Regional Obj (RO) Tailors objectives to specific strategic environment Support DoS MSRP TCP Country Security End States (CSES) Expresses a country’s desired security capability Serves as the long term objectives for all PACOM activity Feedback This slide is hidden because the TCP the seminar will walk through the next day does not use this Planning Construct. This is the construct for TCP 11 and on and is another depiction of linkage between Operations, Actions and Activities all the way back to Theater Strategic Objectives that support achievement of GEF directed End States. Country Obj (CO) Charts path toward achieving CSES Supports DoS MSRP Required Capabilities Enables achievement of CO Operations, Actions and Activities (OAA) Executed to develop required capabilities Implements the Theater Campaign Plan

23 Security Cooperation Tools/Resources
Combined/Multinational Education Combined/Multinational Exercises Combined/Multinational Experimentation Combined/Multinational Training Counternarcotics Assistance Counter/Non-Proliferation Defense Support to Public Diplomacy Defense and Military Contacts Facilities and Infrastructure Support Projects Information Sharing/Intelligence Cooperation Humanitarian Assistance International Armaments Cooperation Security Assistance Other Programs and Activities THIS PAGE Is only a sample of the list of SC tools/Resources A partial list of the “how to.” Other tools can be found in NWC 2058 (Dyekman article) Your students may be able to add to this slide with examples of personal experience but here again is where the discussions should focus on how the military coordinates with other instruments of national power to garner a synergistic effect, not to mention there are other stakeholders outside of DoD in the above activities. Combined / Multinational Education -- Activities Involving the education of foreign defense civilians, military officers, and NCOs in US institutions and programs, both in CONUS and overseas, and the education of the US defense personnel in other states’ institutions. This is a core mission for the DOD Regional Centers. Naval War College (NCC, NSC) Army War College International Fellows Program (USA) Aviation Leadership Program* [FAA Sec 544c] Combined / Multinational Exercises -- Exercises with foreign militaries, both in CONUS and overseas, across the full spectrum of military operations sponsored by the Chairman, Combatant Commanders, or Military Department Chiefs under the direction of the Secretaries of the Military Departments Assist Allies with transforming their defense/security establishments to become publicly accountable, well-managed and subject to the rule of law American, British, Canadian, and Australian Exercises Program Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Exercises Fund Combined / Multinational Experimentation -- Bilateral and multilateral activities that experiment, demonstrate or test (non-technological) capabilities and concepts. JFCOM Experimentation Programs (e.g. Joint Urban Warrior, Unified Quest 06, Urban Resolve 2015) Regional Airspace Initiative (USAF) Combined / Multinational Training -- Scheduled unit and individual training activities with foreign militaries that do not fall under the Multinational Exercises category. Afghanistan Freedom Support Act* {P.L ] African Contingency Operations Training and Assistance Program* [22 USC] Counternarcotics Assistance -- Authorities and funds for equipment, training, infrastructure, intelligence and logistics that provide additional tools to fight narcoterrorism. Andean Counterdrug Initiative Funding Counter-Drug Support to Colombia and Peru* [P.L Sec. 1033] Counter / Non-Proliferation -- Activities seeking to counter and reduce the threat of WMD, as well as mitigate its effects. Cooperative Defense Program Cooperative Threat Reduction* [22 USC Secs 2551; 5951] Defense Support to Public Diplomacy -- Activities that support USG public diplomacy efforts by engaging key foreign audiences. The Asia-Pacific Defense FORUM The Command Post Defense and Military Contacts – Focused and tailored contacts to support defense reform and staff interoperability, senior defense official visits (civilians, officers, and NCOs), bilateral and multilateral planning events, exchanges, staff talks, and conferences. Air and Space Interoperability Council Biannual Multilateral Meetings (e.g. NATO) Conference of American Armies Facilities and Infrastructure Support Projects – Military construction investments and cooperative infrastructure development with allies and international partners in host-nation installations. Exercise Related Construction [10 USC Sec 2805] Foreign Military Construction [22 USC Sec ] Information Sharing/Intelligence Cooperation – Activities that increase US and Partner nation intelligence capacity, information sharing, and awareness. Information Exchange Program Agreements [10 USC Sec 2358] Intelligence Cooperation [50 USC Sec 413] Humanitarian Assistance -- Deployments of US military personnel to plan, oversee and conduct specific combatant command-nominated humanitarian projects and activities including assistance to host nation civilian authorities in disaster preparedness, mitigation and response; search and rescue and provision of humanitarian daily rations (HDR); and training in identification, removal techniques, safety, and education in awareness and risk of explosive remnants of war (ERW). It also includes the donation of non-lethal excess Department property and other relief supplies, transportation of privately donated relief materials to states in need, and training and material assistance to host nations' HIV/AIDS and Avian Influenza (AI) prevention programs. Foreign Disaster Assistance* [10 USC Sec 2561 and 404] Excess Property Humanitarian Assistance* [10 USC Sec 2557] Humanitarian Daily Rations* [10 USC Sec 2561] Humanitarian Mine Action* [10 USC Sec 401] Medical Team Deployments Hospital Ships Deployments (USN) Security Assistance Direct Commercial Sales [AECA] Excess Defense Articles Foreign Military Financing Program* [22 USC Sec ] Other Programs and Activities American, British, Canadian, Australian, and New Zealand Armies' Program (USA) Build the Capacity of Foreign Military Forces – Train and Equip [P.L Sec. 1206] Civil-Military Emergency Planning International Program Coalition Forces in Iraq and Afghanistan Support [P.L ] Defense Environmental International Cooperation Defense Shows Participation* [10 USC] Distinguished Visitors Orientation Tours* [22 USC Sec 2396] International Armaments Cooperation -- Cooperative research, development, test, and evaluation of defense technologies, systems, or equipment; joint production and follow-on support of defense articles or equipment; and procurement of foreign technology, equipment, systems or logistics support. Multilateral Interoperability Program Material Interoperability [DoDD ]

24 Security Cooperation Challenges for the CCDR
U.S. resources available U.S. policy changes International events HN resources HN policy The Dyekman article touches on the challenges to the GCC in making a coherent plan that keeps faith over a period of time. Good time here to discuss Dyekman and Keating. US resources examples – the Combatant Commander doesn’t own all of the resources necessary to accomplish his TSC concept (for example, if the Combatant Commander requires a unit that he does not have COCOM authority over, he is dependant upon the Service to provide the force). US Policy Change examples – Congress shut down TSC activities with Indonesia during East Timor crisis; same for India after they detonated a nuclear device; and Thailand after the military coup in You can be certain that SC activities with Russia will change considerably in the aftermath of the Georgia invasion. Host Nation resources – Russia cancels more than a third of planned activities due to resource problems. Host Nation Policy – Russia cut off all mil-to-mil activities in protest for NATO bombing Question: How do you think recent Russian invasion of Georgia will impact SC with Russia?

25 Resourcing Security Cooperation
CCDR’s SC Resource Requirements Service Forces Title 10 Centrally- Managed Programs Title 22 Programs/ Authorities SC GFMB Allocated Funding / Authorities SECDEF has identified Security Cooperation as a major DOD priority GEF directs the development of CCDR campaign plans to achieve regional/functional end states - CCDRs need to know resources available to begin planning - To the degree the resource picture is unclear or unsettled, campaign plans will not be resource informed CCDRs consistently report insufficient and/or fragmented resources under current authorities to deliver against SC requirements Congress continues to delimit funding sources and compartmentalize authorities against specific problem sets DoD can only influence SC funding indirectly, as such funding primarily comes from Title 22 sources

26 As Is Security Cooperation Resource Oversight “System”
Security Cooperation Funding Traditional COCOM Activities Defense Environmental International Cooperation (DEIC) Combating Terrorism Fellowship Program (CTFP) Counter-Narco Terrorism / Counter-Drug Support (CNT) Developing Country Combined Exercise Program (DCCEP) Global Peace Operations Initiative (GPOI) Regional Centers Overseas Humanitarian, Disaster and Civic Aid (OHDACA) 1206 – Global Train and Equip 1207 – Security and Stabilization Assistance Defense Institutional Reform Initiative – DIRI DOS – Economic Support Fund (ESF) DOS – Global Health and Child Survival (GHCS) DOS – International Narcotics Control & Law Enforcement (INCLE) DOS – Nonproliferation, Antiterrorism, Demining, & Related Programs (NADR) DOS – International Military Education and Training (IMET) DOS -- Foreign Military Financing – Grants (FMF-Grant) DTRA – Biological Threat Reduction Program (BTRP) DTRA – Chemical Weapons Elimination Program (CWEP) DTRA – Global Nuclear Security (GNS) DTRA – International Counterproliferation Program (ICP) DTRA – Nuclear Weapons Storage Security (NWSS) DTRA – Nuclear Weapons Transportation Security (NWTS) DTRA – Strategic Nuclear Arms Elimination (SNAE) DTRA – Strategic Offensive Arms Elimination (SOAE) DTRA – WMD - Proliferation Prevention Program (WMD-PPP) Humanitarian Assistance (HA) Humanitarian Mine Action (HMA) COCOM Initiative Fund (CCIF) Commander’s Emergency Response Fund (CERP) Exercise Related Construction (ERC) Joint Combined Exchange Training (JCET) Joint Exercise Transporation Program (JETP) Military Personnel Authorization (MPA) Lift and Sustain Coalition Readiness Support Program (CRSP) Afghanistan Security Forces Funding (ASFF) Iraq Security Forces Funding (ISFF) State Partnership Program Theater Campaign Plan End States / IMOs CCDR Staff Observation 1 All SC programs/programs are managed within separate stovepipes (~40) – largely independent of each other Observation 2 No single component tracks aggregate SC funding, apportions funding across CCDRs IAW overarching strategic priorities, or manages the totality as strategic conditions change Observation 3 To determine the aggregate resources available for their planning, the CCDRs must identify and then PULL funding information from each of the relevant program managers Observation 4 There are no systemic (or systematic) mechanisms in place to capture resource expenditures against SC activities and the end states/IMOs they help to achieve BOTTOM LINE The CCDRs are the first place in DOD where funding streams are aggregated and applied holistically against strategic objectives Observation 5 Because of the foregoing, it is difficult to determine the adequacy of SC funding – in aggregate, by CCDR, or by type of SC investment / expenditure

27 Department of State Role
GEF CCDR (Theater Campaign Plan) Components (Branch Plans) Execution JSCP “The GEF complements the security goals outlined in the Department of State’s (DoS) Joint Strategic Plan (JSP). Question: What is the origin of the planning factors used by the DoS in the planning for the JSP? Ans: Same as the GEF—NSS signed by the President Point: The TCP/SC is a coordinated effort, driven by national strategy, which aligns all aspects of national power to meet objectives (at least in theory). Thorough campaign and contingency planning requires that a Combatant Command’s SC operations and activities align with national security objectives laid out in the DoS JSP and complement DoS country-specific Mission Strategic Resource Plans (MSRPs). Critically important is that combatant command words and actions complement each other in shaping perceptions to support US policy goals.” GEF (Draft 2008) p. 5 Ambassador’s MSRP

28 DoD AORs vs DoS Regional Bureaus

29 Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA)
DSCA’s mission is to lead, direct and manage Security Cooperation programs and resources to support national security objectives Goals: Build relationships that promote U.S. Interests Build allied and partner capacities for self-defense and coalition operations in the GWOT Promote peacetime and contingency access for U.S. forces Key point is that the Combatant Commanders are not the DoD lead for Security Cooperation. Combatant Commanders develop theater strategies and Theater Campaign Plans that are supported by other agencies involved in Security Cooperation and Security Assistance. The Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) is such an organization. DSCA should be in close coordination with the CCDR TCP development and execution since they will be one of the key coordinating bodies for clearing all the hurdles associated with activities nationally. Listed in PACOM TCP as key coordination member

30 Programs (DSCA) Foreign Military Sales Foreign Military Financing
International Military Education and Training Excess Defense Articles Humanitarian Assistance Humanitarian Mine Action Regional Defense Counter-Terrorism Fellowship Program Capacity Building programs These are some of the programs that DSCA is directly involved with.

31 The Other Stakeholders
Foreign Policy & Licensing State Department Determines which countries have programs Reviews and approves all sales and transfers Issues munitions export licenses (commercial sales) Determines foreign assistance funding levels Defense Department Has extensive input on policy Determines what equipment is available for sale Recommends foreign assistance funding levels Implements FMS program Implements military education programs Policy & Implementation Again the point on this slide is that CCDR planners do not need to coordinate with every single stakeholder. They just need to make sure the key players are involved and understand agencies like DSCA will do a lions share of the coordination with DoS, other DoD agencies, Budget, Legal and approval from Congress when needed. DSCA is DoD’s main focal point for Security Cooperation Clears hurdles with Legal, MIL DEPTs, other agencies and Congress if needed. Military Departments and Combatant Commanders execute the programs

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33 CCDR SC funding is frequently an issue
Summary Theater Strategies are linked to national strategic guidance GEF provides the “what” JSCP – implements the “what”—in greater specificity Theater planning may not be a complicated process but, Requires significant effort and coordination to be successful Is relevant across all phases A comprehensive Theater Strategy and SC plan Is supportive of the Ambassador MSRP Considers all elements of national power and, Requires close coordination with: The Department of State Adjacent or associated GCC/FCCs Service components, as well as other country/regional interested or influential organizations CCDR SC funding is frequently an issue

34 “Well, that should clear things up.”


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