1. Regional Guidelines on Short- term Economic Statistics Based on Selected ESCWA Member Countries Brief Overview Expert Group Meeting on Short-Term Statistics 16-18 February 2016 Amman, Jordan

2. Regional Guidelines Overview 1.Aims / Objectives 2.Outline 3.Value added 4.RG development process

3. 1. Regional Guidelines: Aims / Objectives Prepare a guide publication that supports all countries in the Arab Region to produce and disseminate a small set of priority short-term economic indicators (STEIs) Priorities identified by seven pilot countries: Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, and Tunisia.

4. 1. Regional Guidelines: Aims / Objectives Will do this by: Outlining key conceptual issues relating to STEIs in UNSD’s Data Template for Short- term Economic Statistics Discussing uses and policy relevance of STEIs Assessing the availability and gaps in the dissemination of STEIs in the pilot countries Reviewing some of the quality dimensions of indicators currently produced by pilot countries (e.g. frequency, timeliness) in context of international recommendations Discussing the main data constraints, obstacles and quality issues identified by pilot countries and how they could be addressed Identifying the main capacity development needs of the pilot countries relevant for other countries in the region Reviewing current international standards for early warning systems and examining current national practices used in other regions.

5. 2. Regional Guidelines: Outline PartsMain Sections Background, objectives, STEI scope, basic STEI concepts Part 1 – Review of STEIs in Pilot Countries Availability, frequency, timeliness Use of international standards, validation methods, metadata availability Main data quality issues identified by pilot countries Part II – Priority STEIs in Pilot Countries Which indicators, relationship between priority STEIs Use(s) and policy relevance Capacity development needs Key recommendations, examples of recommended practice from Arab Region / elsewhere Part III – Early warning systems Current international initiatives Flash estimates Consumer and business tendency surveys / Consumer and Business Confidence Indicators Composite business cycle indicators

6. 3. Regional Guidelines: Value Added Existing international guidelines and recommendat ions for STEIs Development of priority STEIs in Arab Region Regional Guidelines. Recommendations. Best practice examples Regional Guidelines. Recommendations. Best practice examples Recommendations on which issues? Practical not theoretical

7. 4. Regional Guidelines: Development process Development of STEI review / assessment questionnaire – using range of inputs Completion by seven pilot countries ESCWA missions to pilot countries and preparation of reports Development of draft Regional Guidelines publication by Consultant – using range of inputs Expert Group Meeting (EGM) in Jordan, February 2016 Incorporation of issues discussed at EGM into Regional Guidelines publication Finalisation of publication

8. 4. Regional Guidelines: Overview Thank you Denis Ward Consultant Melbourne, Australia teedward@gmail.com