1. Fiscal policy and the current environment Post-Budget Address to Australian Business Economists Tuesday, 18 May 2010 Ken Henry

2. Chart 1: Real GDP projection 90 100 110 120 130 140 2007-082009-102011-122013-142015-162017-18 90 100 110 120 130 140 2010-11 Budget 2009-10 Budget Index

3. Chart 2: Terms of trade

4. Chart 3: Output shares by selected industry

5. Chart 4: Global production of selected commodities Bauxite Coal Iron ore 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 19981999200020012002200320042005200620072008 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 Index

6. Chart 5: Trend in real price of aluminium and copper, 1911 to 2001 0 500 1000 1500 1911194119712001 0 500 1000 1500 Aluminium Index 2001=100 Copper 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1911194119712001 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Index 2001=100

7. Chart 6: Trend in real price of copper 1930 to 1970 Copper 0 100 200 300 400 19301940195019601970 0 100 200 300 400 Index 2001=100

8. Chart 7: Share of world GDP, I-2003AD

9. Chart 8: Consumption of copper and steel per capita against real GDP per capita Note: Steel consumption data for all countries are for 1974-2004 except for India (1980-2004). For US and Japan, copper consumption data are 1960-2005, 1965-2005 for South Korea, and 1962-2005 for China. India’s per capita consumption of copper is less than 1kg. Source: IMF, Steel Statistics Yearbooks and Treasury