1. Forests as mitigation tools in Hungary András HUSZÁR andras.huszar@nfm.gov.hu Climate Policy Desk Officer Department for Climate Policy Tuczno, Poland 26-29 April

2. 2 1.Introduction 2.Forests in Hungary 3.The Role of Forests in Carbon Sink in the Future 4.Climate Change and Forests 5.Carbon Balance Change 6.Summary Tuczno, Poland 26-29 April Outline

3. 3 Dr. Zoltán Somogyi Forest Research Institute Budapest, Hungary somogyiz@iif.hu Dr. Borbála Gálos Institute of Environmental and Earth Sciences, University of West Hungary galos.borbala@emk.nyme.hu National Food Chain Safety Office (NFCSO), Hungarian Forest Management: https://www.nebih.gov.hu/en/specialities/erdeszet Hungarian Central Statistical Office (HCSO): https://www.ksh.hu/environmenthttps://www.ksh.hu/environment National Inventory Report for 1985-2013, Hungary (2015) Tuczno, Poland 26-29 April Scientific background and source

4. 4 Introduction Tuczno, Poland 26-29 April

5. 5 Introduction Source: WWF Forest & Climate Programme Tuczno, Poland 26-29 April

6. 6 Forests in Hungary Source: NFCSO, 2015 Tuczno, Poland 26-29 April

7. 7 Forests in Hungary Source: NCSO, 2015 Tuczno, Poland 26-29 April

8. 8 Forests in Hungary Source: HCSO, 2015 Tuczno, Poland 26-29 April

9. 9 The Role of Forests in Carbon Sink in the Past The sources of emissions and removals in the L-FL category Source: National Inventory Report for 1985-2013, Hungary (HMS 2015) Tuczno, Poland 26-29 April

10. 10 CASMOFOR: CArbon Sequestration MOdel for FORestations - an accounting model to assess the removals and emissions of carbon by afforestations Source: http://www.scientia.hu/casmofor/indexE.php Tuczno, Poland 26-29 April A Tool to Estimate the Role of Forest Carbon Sink

11. 11 Source: Somogyi Z. 2014 Baseline scenario (i.e. assuming no climate change) for beech forests in Zala country, Hungary Forest carbon balance under „normal” climate Tuczno, Poland 26-29 April

12. 12 Source: Gálos, B. et al. 2015 Projected climate tendencies for Hungary Climate Change in Hungary warmer wetter dryer IPCC emission scenario: A1B Error bars: „likely range” of the projected changes Tuczno, Poland 26-29 April

13. 13 Modeled future tree species distribution maps for 2036–2065 (A) and 2071–2100 (B), beech – blue, sessile oak – green, Turkey oak – red, no forest – white Source: Móricz N. et al. 2013 A B Forests might disappear due to projected climate change Tuczno, Poland 26-29 April

14. 14 Source: Somogyi Z. 2014 „Climate change” scenario for beech forests in Zala country, Hungary Forest may become huge sources of carbon Tuczno, Poland 26-29 April

15. 15 Forest carbon balance change For the area where sessile oak replaces beech in Zala country, Hungary Source: Somogyi Z. 2014 Tuczno, Poland 26-29 April

16. 16 Climate Change and Forests (REMO) Effects of an assumed amunt of afforestation on the summer precipitation in 3 Hungarian sub-regions Source: Gálos, B. et al. 2011 Climate change due to GHG concentration increase 2071-2100 vs. 1961-1990 Climate change due to potential afforestation 2071-2100 (carbon cycle not considered!) Climate change due to GHG concentration increase & afforestation 2071-2100 vs. 1961-1990

17. 17 Summary The climatic effects of forest cover change can affect the projected climate change due to GHG concentration increase Forests can have large potential to climate change mitigation! Practical application:  Assessment of the climatic benefit of forests and their role in adapting to climate change + regional differences  Our models provide basic information for adaptation and mitigation strategies